Sunday, October 22, 2017

We survived hurricane season

Initial, and optimistic, estimates put the cost at a quarter point for Q4. Housing starts took a bigger dive than expected, so that estimate is closer to a third of a point, Labor markets remain 'tight' the survey says, meaning JOLTs may have slowed, but not died. Two more weeks of erratic JOLTs data is likely.

My revised estimate is 2/3 of  points of GDP loss over three quarters, down from a full point.  We will skip the blue bar and worry again in Q1 2018, Swamp ledger time.

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