Wednesday, December 6, 2017

The California rule cannot practically be overturned

Which is the problem.

The Dills Act and Reagan's Union Oversight rule put the California rule back in play, either written or oral under different semantics.  The unions still control the legislative path. The California Supremes would never be taken seriously. Jerry is not spending his last year fighting this.

We are back to where we were, either take the union deal or it is a mutual strike, a desist. The US Supremes cannot help either way, California is too big to get anything other than states rights on the issue.  Any involvement by the Swamp risks bailout.

Pension institutions are leaking out, from equities into the one year treasury.  Projected returns in the 4% range are optimistic, Cal governments get hit with a sudden, aggregate whammy.

If I said, All things being 'Magic Walrus' don't worry, this equates to another quarter point or so off growth.  But California is never Magic Walrus. We are coherent, or anti-coherent with the Swamp, so our  pension constraints come exactly when the Swamp delivers a 30 billion  year charge. The wealthy smell writing on the wall, escaping before the requant. The wealthy actually get more looks at the book, the price they charge for progressive taxation.  California is starting the requant process.

Legal abyss, left stranded with no sound body of law.

 My advice to the Cal Supremes. Take the Due Process route. Specify that the California Rule was legal implies the contract gets a due process appeal strong enough to over rule, based on US Constitutional guarantees. In other words, mandate the legal path from local government to the US Supreme, and Cal Supremes pass the buck. The state lives to see another day.

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