Friday, March 16, 2018

Not herding, but adapting

According to Chainalysis, bitcoin’s big sell-off was a result of “Regulatory news driving trading volumes and a peak of positive sentiment pushing price; and a lack of fundamentals resulting in herding behaviour across increasingly correlated exchanges and cryptocurrencies.”
OK, the central bankers are executing a hold and delay on bitcoin. Bitcoin adapts. 

This proves my theory, bitcoin is the central bank hedge tool, the easy two step way to hedge inside central banker info.  
How big is this market? Let me fabricate numbers:  1) The number of CB , 2)  Their typical arbitrage and 3) The holding period of bitcoins, I get a nominal market value of a 100 billion, conservative.  My number is as invalid as the next person's, but I believe bitcoin has earned a niche in the sandbox, its nearest rival being frequent flyer. 

It is not CB vs Bitcoin, it is airlines vs Bitcoin, a fun  little battle.  CBs will throw in the towel, they have the monopoly tax dollar, they will dominate sandbox. They reason they have the most to gain from sandbox.    Their loss of market share is simply stuff being priced that was not priced before.

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