Friday, July 13, 2018

What was my prediction?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely grew at a 2.77 percent annualized pace in the second quarter, a tad slower than the 2.79 percent pace calculated last week following the latest readings on import prices and the consumer price index, the New York Federal Reserve’s Nowcast model showed on Friday.
My point was that we get a 2.8 or so, but that it will be revised down to 2.5 or 2.4 at the second read.  My doubt was mainly because current currency volatility makes the original read in error. 

But, this is still good, and still in line with what we have seen for years.  No one is really expecting a string of 3.0% growth rates.

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