Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Worse than thought

Weather Patterns Gone Crazy: Nebraska Flooding Breaks 17 Records, Farmers Absolutely Devastated


This can knock off a quarter point of gdp, they never seem to stop, natural disasters. Short term rates will rise, Congress will have to pass an exemption to extraordinaries.  

This was an unknown unknown for me, a black swan. But my statistical sense is telling me this is yearly, we will need spare liquidity, a reserve,  we don't have it. Not big event, but at the wrong time, a modest sudden stop when we can barely handle it.

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