A recession unpredictor

When I look at a chat like this, from Menzie, I am looking to see if spectral points line up with the blue bars.

Specral points, like sudden plunge, multi-year observable  trends or multi year periods of stability.

Nothing sticks out as a predictor except one. When the red line is mostly stable there is no recession shortly before or after. And that predicts no recession in our future, but does seem to indicate a long period of the doldrums, the red line stabilizing about a period of low growth and periods of deflation. That is because the decade trend is down with lower volatility. However that is an incomplete sequence, I am completing the pattern with speculation. My speculation is that the trend is settling to long term, but lower growth, and we will see the occasional spike down into deflation. My prior is that this system is being forced by a price neutral balance sheet process.