Thursday, October 17, 2019

MMT time

The Hoisinton report as picked up by Mish.
Here is the conclusion:
The global over indebtedness has clearly restrained growth, and therefore has had a profound disinflationary impact on every major economic sector of the world. This fact, coupled with an overzealous U.S. Central Bank have created the conditions for an economic contraction in the U.S. and abroad. This has also created a worldwide decline in inflation and inflationary expectations. It is therefore unsurprising that record lows in long term interest rates have been established in all major economic regions. A quick and dramatic shift toward greater accommodation by the Fed could begin to shift momentum from contraction toward expansion. However, policy lags are long and slow to develop, therefore despite the remarkable decline in long term yields this year, we are maintaining our long duration holdings. A shift towards shorter duration portfolios would be appropriate when the forward-looking indicators of expansion, in the U.S. and abroad, begin to appear.
They are saying debt overhang.  Lags in monetary policy are the same as inertia caused by the primary dealer program which allocates debt in the short to medium term. The debt slinging system will not balance long term, over the monetary cycle.  It is MMT time.

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