Absent new information, the stock market is all about keeping the Swamp funded. The ten year at 2.4% is not sustainable for the Swamp, so Treasury is driving the one year yield up. The market falters, volatility rises and the PE needs to drop a bit to equalize the one year in volatility weight terms.
What this means, really, is that the one year looks good to a lot of retail investors, and they are slowly exiting from the stock market. What is the likelihood the market can make 3% this year, as one can roll over the one year and compound up to that level? More and more folks will not make that bet .
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