Sunday, October 22, 2017

We survived hurricane season

Initial, and optimistic, estimates put the cost at a quarter point for Q4. Housing starts took a bigger dive than expected, so that estimate is closer to a third of a point, Labor markets remain 'tight' the survey says, meaning JOLTs may have slowed, but not died. Two more weeks of erratic JOLTs data is likely.

My revised estimate is 2/3 of  points of GDP loss over three quarters, down from a full point.  We will skip the blue bar and worry again in Q1 2018, Swamp ledger time.

Jealous husband dunnit

Friday, October 20, 2017

Millennials have agreed!

The ten year is at 2.38, a 40 basis point jump over two years, or a 15% rise in federal interest charges for the indefinite future.  We got the  millennials to sign the ledger on this day, those wonderful little kids.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Wealthy folks on strike

Treasury Secretary Steven Munchin, speaking on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the 1987 market crash, predicted stocks will plunge if Congress fails to overhaul taxes."There's no question in my mind if we don't get it done you're going to see a reversal of a significant amount of these gains," Mnuchin told Politico on Wednesday.Mnuchin's warning -- a highly unusual one for a sitting treasury secretary -- suggests he fears a drop of at least thousands of Dow points. The average has spiked almost 5,000 points since last fall's election, a rally that President Trump often celebrates as evidence of his success.
The super wealthy can no longer be guaranteed the market rises as they fund Congressional debt.  Ned should know, he was head life insurance salesman at Goldman-Sachs.   Tis is a threat, either the Swam cu taxes on the super wealthy of interest charges are going up.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Why would an intelligent person join Mensa?

A study of intelligence and neurosis discovers that members of the high intelligence club, called MENSA,  are neurotic. Smart happy people don't join narcissistic organizations. In fact, it is kind of a stupid thing to do, unless you are smart and neurotic.

After comparing this with the statistical national average for each illness they found that those in the Mensa community had considerably higher rates of varying disorders. 
 While 10 per cent of the general population were diagnosed with anxiety disorder, that rose to 20 per cent among the Mensa community, according to the study which published in the Science Direct journal.

Not worth the enforcement

At around midnight Sunday, Gov. Jerry Brown pandered to religious extremists and jeopardized the job security of women across California.In his final act of this legislative session, Brown vetoed a bill that would have ensured that a woman can’t be fired because she decided to get pregnant, use contraception or have an abortion.Assembly Bill 569, the Reproductive Health Non-Discrimination Act, would have banned workplace discrimination due to a woman’s personal reproductive health choices.

This is back to California and the legislature granting licenses to sue just about any business for any reason.  

In this case, gay bars hiring gar workers, lots of lawsuits. Businesses that don;t cater to the LGBTGIF crowd be getting sued all the time for marketing reasons.  Brown was correct to veto, it is not the place to be doing this, not in a state where each law is a license to suddenly sue some, now defenseless, business. 

The cost of California's lawsuit business

Businesses in California survive by watching potential lawsuits, and avoid them like the plague.  The legislature grants the right for some aggrieved class to sue some other identified class. The result  is that business has a narrower range of operations, in marketing, production or services, before it runs afoul of some lawsuit.  During a downturn, business will simply  shut for a while until margins improve enough to cover lawsuit risk.

Real problem, happen in my hometown all the time, mostly real estate restriction, a myriad from the state, old building designation being the worst. Then all the mandates in emergency health care running the costs of emergency rooms way up.   labor relations with local government a nightmare of regulation.  Handicapped access was a big lawsuit problem for a while.  On and on... businesses and local government getting hit with these 'licenses to sue' granted by a fairly ignorant state legislature.

No, macroeconomics becomes much easier

Noah is concerned because the spectral response in macro is generational and sparse. The major motions of the economy are the federal recession cycle and the generational monetary cycle with one more long term and a bunch of smaller terms.  Not enough to transmit Magic Walrus which does not recognize trade book uncertainty.

But the sandbox does it right, and is no arbitrage, auto-traded.  It will compute, in the collective, whatever significant instruments the economists concoct. The trade sequences that currently the academics are passing and sharing in  python, with a bit of adaption, becomes the trade books themselves, directly traded.  Nothing changes except economists have to understand trade book uncertainty and why we quantize.

I wasn't invited

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy Conference

No one from Redneck U seemed welcome, it was strictly a Magic Walrus event.  

Here is a video of Ben, stroking his beard and looking all serious:


The video got squashed, some how. In it he introduced his new gadget, the monetary regime changer for flatline curves.  Ben is worried about government debt in a deflationary environment, he doesn't like the uncoordinated bankruptcy of the Swamp.  He has this price level idea for a target that kicks in during the emergency.  

My suggestion is to directly do what he wants to do, wipe out government debt. He just needs to default in a fair traded environment so one part is not designated the arbitrary payer.  He wants sandbox, a better gadget.

Prison unions officially allowed to steal from inmates

When an inmate has a Restitution Fine and Direct Order Collection a portion of any money you send in will be used to pay that fine or collection. Effective January 1, 2007 and thereafter, when an inmate owes any obligation pursuant to a restitution fine imposed by a court, the department shall deduct 50 percent or the balance owing, whichever is less, from the inmate's wages and trust account deposits regardless of the source of such income. In addition, an administrative fee of 10 percent of the deduction shall be deducted to reimburse the department for its administrative costs, for a maximum deduction of 55 percent. 
Prison guards,  obliged to the union, inmates be damned. I just wanted to send some kid I know a few bucks, now I have to do a whole bunch of discovery to find out how much will be taken.  His crime involved no victims, he ran from the cops, safely, but got caught.  Then the kid skips meth class and gets a parole violation.  It is a catch up game chasing the kid down before California government destroys his life, which they may have already done.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

But this judge doesn't count

Federal judge in Hawaii blocks Trump's 3rd travel ban hours before it was going to take effect

He has already been labeled a 'make shit up',  talking points judge with no logical concept of the law, a Sotomayor type. The rest of the  supremes will dismiss his objection without a hearing.