Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Global trade slowdown

GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization is decrying a "dramatic slowing of trade growth" as it revises downward its projections, saying trade is now on track this year to grow at the slowest pace since 2009.
Director-General Roberto Azevedo says the "serious" slowdown "should serve as a wake-up call" amid growing anti-globalization sentiment.
The WTO predicted Tuesday that global trade will rise 1.7 percent this year, down from its April prediction for 2.8 percent
Import slowdown in the USA.  Average yearly growth in the USA is about 1.5% at the moment.   Looking forward, the USA is no longer the strong consumer market of yesteryear.  Expect more Asian rebalance.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Crime is mostly very expensive

I am as libertarian as the next person, but we make a two color nonetheless, legal and illegal.  Whatever our persuasion, we make the boundary and crossing it will always be very expensive for society, especially government.

Where is it the worst? Chicago.  City expenses are going to skyrocket, and the social disruption in the neighborhoods will cost much more than any welfare payment can fix.  Any of those shooting generates a $100,000 medical tab.  The police squads needed to manage the crime charge very hefty union dues.  Labor is stuck in a war zone, mobility at a standstill.  Walmart security issues are enormous.

Need a social memory.
When BLM showed up, I knew it was business as usual, eventually real Black lives will want the cops back.  Black people do not like crime, it is very expensive and disruptive; they like more police, not less. Crime makes Black lives miserable.  Blacks have to remember this rule from generation to generation.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

The natural process is inherently intelligent

Entropy is maximized, and operationally that means redundancy is removed by herding, an outcome of the queuing problem.  Hence, in the chaos, herds, and their offspring are created to manage the individual motions at once.

Take the solar system in which we live, it is just a cloud of dust.  But the dust fi  No, figired something out, by herding the clouds nature can use simpler formula for stability, it can mostly act as if all the centers of mass exist.  Hence, classical orbital theory has become simpler for us and for the dust.  That is intelligent, and we humans have believed an intelligent being must have done the work.

Ther key is to remember that when a random selection has reduced redundancy, we get a Gibbs lock, these atre favored.  Due to quantization, the next stable state, up,  is not observable.   We get quantization wells that maintain the herd, or lock the balance between the two types of statistics.  The dust gets part of equipartition done.

I try out Nick Rowe's model

He has another thought experiment, which has a lot of references to definitions unknown.  I will try out my simple model.

Set up:
I have 30 member banks, 29 have 10% of NGDP on deposit with the central bank bot. One has 10% of GDP out on loan. The central bank algorithm is rigged to break even, its expenses paid by declaring losses, and are small.

Shock:
The central bank bot sets future rates up by a quarter point.  The one bank with all loans pays more  money in or reduces lending.  The depositing banks get more out, or reduce deposits.

Outcome:
  Dunno yet.  If the bot had that knowledge it would have left rates unchanged.  If the one member bank is just now setting up manufacturing for low cost anti-gravity machines, then its boom times, otherwise bust.

Conclusion:
The imbalance between banks means there is asymmetric information; a large chunk of insider information has not been monetized.

The problem is that we have no smooth exit and entry for member banks, so when one bank is in trouble, they drag them all down.  That is what we have.  For some reason a member bank took out a 2.4 trillion dollar loan and we still have no idea what it was used for or when  the profits come in.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

State tax income trending down


Down and generally trending down.  What keeps the smaller states alive? Federal contracts and block transfers, built on debt.  But, looking at this chart, coupled with pension obligations and dismal returns, a lot of states and counties will be hitting the debt market soon.

Weary, maniacal, obsessed

Now we definitely need verse here, and melody. Having taken up the art, I shall start with the words, add the medody and make a hit song. This will be an ongoing project.




Oh! 
You better not shout, 
you better not pout
Else she's kicking you out
Hillary is coming to town
They say she has dementian
Her assistant is islamican
While hubby burys schlong again
So she's likely very angry and

You better not shout, 
you better not pout
Else she's kicking you out
Hillary is coming to town
If she thinks that you're a sexist
Any white male from Texas
Or some religion blessed
She will kick you in your nexus 
So
You better not shout, 
you better not pout
Else she's kicking you out
Hillary is coming to town

So we see some verse here, sort of make it onto a Cole Porter like ballad, in C major, since I am a novice.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Deliverbot arrives



This is the micro version, the lid pops up with the item ordered.  

The macro version is a flat bed bot, with a small lifting arm.  It drives the neighborhood and drops your order off with the arm, placing it into your secure delivery bin at the curb edge.

Now, consumer have to buy the delivery bin, sort of a very large mail box.  It is buried into the ground actually, the lid is at curb level, like a manhole cover.  The cost of deliver box is about $200, but you pay for it in six months since you never have to drive to the store again.  

All the stores remain, we still use the inventory control.  The bots just cruise between stores and homes, optimally.  

Facebook and other sites have become useless

EschatonThe Ad CycleI thought it would've reset by now, but the internet just keeps getting worse and worse. Trying to read a website is like playing a game of whack-a-mole with the ads, and that's before we start complaining about the auto-on video and audio ads. Usually these things do follow a cycle, with the ad arms race heating up until everybody realizes it isn't sustainable and it resets a bit, but it seems like endless cover-the-text popover ads are here to stay this time. A mystery to everyone who has ever used the internet is why anybody (meaning the people who pay lots of money for these ads) think that they'll sell anything by rendering their potential customers' browsers temporarily unusable, but for some reason they do.
Some web sites have to be exited immediately.  And one wonders how they get any income at all.  The Internet hos to change.

Formal software verification for banker bot

The idea of formal verification is that the path pf software can be limited if all the conditions to break out of the  path have been proved non-existent. There is a bounded set of inputs that will keep the software on track, this this bounded set can be determined and checked against.  This is one of the many security checks done on banker bot software, making sure it is hardware and software verified.
Quanta:
In the summer of 2015 a team of hackers attempted to take control of an unmanned military helicopter known as Little Bird. The helicopter, which is similar to the piloted version long-favored for U.S. special operations missions, was stationed at a Boeing facility in Arizona. The hackers had a head start: At the time they began  In the  operation, they already had access to one part of the drone’s computer system. From there, all they needed to do was hack into Little Bird’s onboard flight-control computer, and the drone was theirs.
When the project started, a “Red Team” of hackers could have taken over the helicopter almost as easily as it could break into your home Wi-Fi. But in the intervening months, engineers from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) had implemented a new kind of security mechanism — a software system that couldn’t be commandeered. Key parts of Little Bird’s computer system were unhackable with existing technology, its code as trustworthy as a mathematical proof. Even though the Red Team was given six weeks with the drone and more access to its computing network than genuine bad actors could ever expect to attain, they failed to crack Little Bird’s defenses.
“They were not able to break out and disrupt the operation in any way,” saidKathleen Fisher, a professor of computer science at Tufts University and the founding program manager of the High-Assurance Cyber Military Systems (HACMS) project. “That result made all of DARPA stand up and say, oh my goodness, we can actually use this technology in systems we care about.”
The technology that repelled the hackers was a style of software programming known as formal verification. Unlike most computer code, which is written informally and evaluated based mainly on whether it works, formally verified software reads like a mathematical proof: Each statement follows logically from the preceding one. An entire program can be tested with the same certainty that mathematicians prove theorems.

Geoge Will takes up socialism


NRO: The University of South Carolina’s Moore School of Business estimates that more than 187,000 jobs — one of every eleven South Carolina jobs — and $53 billion in economic output are directly or indirectly related to Charleston’s port. It, however, needs further dredging in order to handle more of the biggest ships, which is where Congress enters the picture: Unless it authorizes the project and appropriates the federal portion of the $509 million cost to augment South Carolina’s already committed $300 million, the project will be delayed a year. The deepening project is only 14 percent of the $2.2 billion South Carolina is investing in its port facilities and related access.

George always seemed quick to spend other people's money, then claim some ideology that makes him different from the usual socialist.