Saturday, August 27, 2016

Rate and Term delusion

If we examine what the Fed does in an overheated economy, we find events are changing rapidly.  Most of the new information for the Fed comes from the last two quarterly results.  Conversely, during long periods of low growth and low volatility, the Fed needs to look back two years, two sets of annual numbers to find anything innovative.

Accountants always use annual rates in comparing yields, for a very good reason; annually every economy completes one seasonal cycles, seasonal effects are cancelled.  But in the two cases above, the first, the target rate is the six month rate, and in the second it is the two year rate.  This follows directly from applying Shannon to information efficiency.  The two previous significant events have the best predictive power, it is best to 'mark to market' all the  significant events prior to the last two.  I think this is going to be fundamental in spectrum constrained, self adapting statistics. In number theory this is about 'conserving divisibility'; divisibility ans spectrum play similar roles.

Consider the recent puzzle regarding seasonal adjustments, why did we have this Q1 slump start showing up?  Well, it had to happen two years in a row before we were convinced.  

Its like a combinatorial problem, we have a defined sequence of partitioned groups we can make, in which we maximally use prime numbers and make the best quotient ring.  When we do this, pricing is most efficient,meaning we can multiply and divide prices for longer estimations with respect to some artificial variable like the year. Once we set the first partition, the prime twos separation, then we set the spectral conditions for the remaining aggregates, we know where the knee of the yield curve will lie, with respect to artificial time.

Are we in a dollar bubble?

It looks like a long term declining volatility in the dollar, and it looks uncorrelated with recessions.  I would say the dollar has peaked.

Friday, August 26, 2016

Some typical statistics on voter ID

It has been in the new lately.  I pulled some stats, nothing accurate, but I saw 15% of Blacks and 6% of whites without personal ID.  We have to drop half of these as folks who are hiding out anyway, and of the remainder,about half cannot read the ballot and are a coin toss.  So, skip the race issue, the marginal numbers lost or gained are not worth the effort.

The bigger issue is the huge class of potential voters who already have photo IDs, the NAFTA citizens, the folks who carry a personal ID from the state in which they reside, and a photo ID of their native NAFTA country; and they vote at home by mail.  These folks act as if they have a legal NAFTA visa, although the regulation is horrible.  They are not likely to jeopardize their visa status by voting illegally.  These folks, most of them, just want the NAFTA visa regulations defined.

It is this sudden discovery by Nancy that these folks will all suddenly decide to break the law every eight years?

This is Magic Walrus failure

The Hill: State insurance officials say they are feeling pressure to approve large ObamaCare premium increases to prevent more insurers losing money from dropping out of the market altogether.
Tennessee’s insurance commissioner, Julie Mix McPeak, this week announced the approval of premium hikes of 62 percent, 46 percent and 44 percent, respectively, for the three insurers on the state’s marketplace. 

There is not, after all, an infinity of infinitely divisible insurance companies.  So, on the frontier of Obamacare we have discrete jumps in pricing as side effects become uncovered.  The middle class ain't that liquid and cannot cover the yearly Q1 jolt to the pocket book..

Thursday, August 25, 2016

There's your deflation

If there was any confusion about how the lower half of the US consumer class is doing these days, it was quickly lifted following today's distressing earnings calls of dollar store titans, Dollar General and Dollar Tree.
Discount retailer Dollar General said it was cutting prices on its most popular items such as bread, eggs and milk, intensifying a price war among already commoditized products with retail giant Wal-Mart Stores to win back falling market share. It shares fell the most on record, plunging by 18% after the company missed on revenue, blaming aggressive competition, lower food prices and reduction in SNAP, or food stamp, coverage in 20 key states.
 Too much supply, too little demand.

The real immigration problem

Well, one of the main issues, anyway.  Where should a North American citizen vote?  They should vote in the election for the nation marked on their national ID.  That covers most immigrants, they are North American citizens.

What  right do North American migrants have in other North American nations.  Their national ID crd gives them lightly regulated NAFTA visa privileges,.  Figure out what those are later.

Problem? No, except Nancy Pelosi suddenly wants to make them all vote in America every eight years, she causes this whole mess.

Consumer deflation in Japan

Spending less and saving for retirement.

Can we sue the guy for racketeering?

The Duran: While Soros has managed to thoroughly destabilise the European Union by promoting mass immigration and open borders, divided the United States by actively funding Black Lives Matters and corrupting the very corruptible US political class, and destroyed Ukraine by pushing for an illegal coup of a democratically elected government using neo-nazi strong men…one country that Soros has not bee able to crack has been The Russian Federation.
Also, there is a bit of treason involved. 

Brad going for monetary regime change

Delong: If we do not now start planning for how to implement helicopter money when the next adverse shock comes, what will our plan be? 
I have an idea.  Instead of flying the copter every 55 years, let's fly it every three years. 

I had a 'one foot tall' stack

Eric Trump says his father’s tax returns are ‘five feet tall’ and should not be released

Mine was a work of fiction, I damn near wrote a novel.