Sunday, November 23, 2014

The mayor and wife of Iguala ordered the murder of the students

And naturally the chief of police obliged.

LA Times: The capture Tuesday of a fugitive Mexican mayor suspected of ordering the disappearance of 43 college students raises expectations of progress in the unsuccessful five-week-long search for the missing men.
But it also is probably making several politicians and other officials nervous, given their long-standing tolerance of — even support for — the mayor and his wife, despite her well-known connection to drug traffickers.
Jose Luis Abarca and his wife, Maria de los Angeles Pineda, were arrested by an elite unit of federal police before dawn in a modest neighborhood of Mexico City, police spokesman Jose Ramon Salinas said. Their detention came more than a month after the mayor took a leave of absence in the Guerrero city of Iguala and the couple went on the lam.
 Y tambien:
NBC News: Drug gang members have described a horrific effort to make 43 teachers college students disappear, detailing an industrial-scale effort involving piling their bodies like cord wood on a pyre that burned for 15 hours and then wading into the ashes to pulverize, bag and dispose of remaining teeth and bones. Mexico's Attorney General Jesus Murillo Karam laid out Friday what investigators think happened to the students who have not been seen since being attacked by police Sept. 26 in the southern city of Iguala.
He played video of presumed gang members confessing, and another video showed hundreds of charred fragments of bone and teeth that had been dumped in and along the San Juan River in the neighboring town of Cocula. According to confessions, the students were driven to killing grounds in a dump truck so tightly packed about 15 of the young men suffocated to death. The others were then slain, apparently shot to death before being burned.
Authorities say the high level of degradation caused by the fire makes identification difficult, and they are sending remains to a specialized laboratory in Austria. Some 74 people have been detained so far in the case, including Iguala's Mayor and his wife, who have been found to have ties to organized crime. Parents reacting to Murillo Karam's report said they have lost trust in anything the government says.
"As long as there are no results, our sons are alive," said Felipe de la Cruz, the father of one of the disappeared. "Today they're trying to close the case this way ... a blatant way to further our torture by the federal government."

Meth gangs, including the political establishment of the state of Guerro. I do not get why Californians are not up in outrage about this crap.

No he escuchado una sola palabra de protesta por parte de nuestros propios políticos corruptos en California. Ellos complacer a nosotros los hispanos, y  luego una vez electos se sientan  en sus colillas en Sacramento dando miles de millones de dólares para ricos banqueros de Nueva York.

Kevid Drum is back to racial pandering

Kevin commenting on "How to pander to Hispanics":
And that's not even counting the energizing effect this has on Democrats, as well as the benefit they get from keeping a promise to Hispanics and earning their loyalty for the next few election cycles.

No tengo ni idea de por qué hispanos necesitan ser mimen. Ellos parecen perfectamente autosuficiente para mí. Los hispanos en mi país hermano, México, parecen saber lo que pasa. ¿Cómo hispanos en California se convierten en la clase dependiente?

Seems habitually Islamic to me

Suicide blast kills 50 :
President Ashraf Ghani, who came to power in September, swiftly condemned the attack, describing it as "inhumane and un-Islamic".
Why lie? Suicide blasting is what Islamics do.

Sin embargo, otro ataque suicida de Islamistas

DC send 5% of our economy to the New York bank cartel

What do I mean?  The US government recycles some 12% of our Federal budget through the New York bankers in interest payments.  The Fed also has sent some 2% of our economy through the New York bank cartel over the last five years.  Divide the federal budget by 5, then add them; we get nearly 5% of GDP is funneled through about five banks in NYC, Goldman Sachs being the leader. 
In California that means we send some 5% of our economy back to these New York bankers and they decide what to do with it.

How did we get into this mess?

The Republican Communist Party, Keynesians and the mid-management of pensions in California and Illinois.  These three things rob the California middle class and allow wealthy New York stock brokers to take a 5% cut. So political boneheads deliver on a yearly basis some .25% of the US economy to wealthy brokers in New York.

Y en Espanol, naturalmente, desde que espanol es le idioma nativo de California:

El gobierno de Estados Unidos recicla alrededor del 12% de nuestro presupuesto federal a través de los banqueros de Nueva York en los pagos de intereses. La Fed también ha enviado un 2% de nuestra economía a través del cártel banco de Nueva York durante los últimos cinco años. Dividir el presupuesto federal en un 5, luego añadirlos; conseguimos casi el 5% del PIB se canaliza a través de cerca de cinco bancos en Nueva York, siendo Goldman Sachs el líder.

En California eso significa que enviamos un 5% de nuestra economía de vuelta a estos banqueros de Nueva York y deciden qué hacer con él.

¿Cómo hemos llegado en este lío?

El Partido Republicano Comunista, keynesianos y la mitad de la gestión de las pensiones en California e Illinois. Estas tres cosas robar a la clase media de California y permitir corredores ricos valores de Nueva York para tomar un recorte del 5%. Así boneheads políticos entregan anualmente algún 0,25% de la economía de Estados Unidos a los corredores ricos en Nueva York.

How the stimulus nearly destroyed Illinois

Here we have the concluence of three graphs, oil prices (scaled) in red, Illinois unemployment rate in blue, and the spending for the federal stimulus in green. Now Illinois is the traffic hub of America, both rail and truck.  It is middle America.  So Illinois will be clobbered by high oil prices worst then border states.  The entire commercial network of the USA was bypassed with the stimulus, meaning, money sent to border states was spent in border states, not part of the regular commercial flow.  Oil prices, we see rose with the stimulus, and up to a point Illinois unemployment dropped. But notice that since the stimulus bypassed the normal network, that Illinois, the traffic hub, nearly collapsed in mid 2011, employment shooting back up.  For almost the next three years, Illinois unemployment stayed at 9%, it was the last economy to recover.

Now Illinois has the usual pension problems, as does California.  Neither California nor Illinois ever fixed the problem and that had contributed to the late recovery in both states.  But clearly, Illinois suffered a net negative from the stimulus.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Bravo a los manifestantes

MEXICO (AP) - La embajada de Estados Unidos en México emitió un mensaje de seguridad Viernes advirtiendo a los ciudadanos estadounidenses para evitar el complejo de Acapulco a causa de la violencia y las protestas.

En otro golpe a una ciudad costera una vez favorecido por las estrellas de cine de Estados Unidos y del jet set en los años 1950 y '60, la embajada dijo que su personal "han sido instruidos para aplazar los viajes no esenciales a Acapulco, por aire o por tierra", y añadió que "advierte a los ciudadanos estadounidenses a seguir las mismas pautas."

La alerta ha señalado que "las protestas e incidentes violentos continúan en el estado de Guerrero, en respuesta a la desaparición de 43 estudiantes allí."
A contrario,los Californianos deben unirse a la protesta.
Jerry Brown hace campaña en la unificación con México, y luego abandona la protesta contra el asesinato de los estudiantes.

Sphere packing, Ito's Calculus, Weiner processes and Lucas polynomials

I am going to take a shot at the general solution. I start with what I think is he sphere packing equation:

The solution is tanh, but a change of boundary conditions makes coth another solution. Rather imporant since the Lucas numbers give cosh and sinh alternatively. I add the class of martingales:

P(x,t) will be the Lucas polynomial or order n, Ln and tanh(n*a) as Ln*tanh(n*a), a derived from the Lucas number.  t is a curcular angle about a local radial from the unit sphere to the center of the current shell, having derivative being the variance in density curvature.

I have the density gradient of the containing shell counting up from the perimeter toward the center, so the curvature of any concentric shell becomes more accurate toward the center. The Lucas polynomial restricts the range of motion such that the curvature is made accurate by motion. The problem is solve for each of the n separately, n going from 1 to Nmax, Nmax giving the energy level.  As n increases toward the center, the density increases by Lucas number, but the number of zeros in the Lucas polynomial increase at a circular angle relative to the line of site toward the shell center, for the particular n.  I think that under these conditions, the polynomial and tanh are separable.

So, the spiral motion, executed by the unit sphere realizes the variance in curvature. The motion is increasingly restricted as n increases. Tanh and coth are the almost invertible gradients at any phase change from n to n+1. Lucas motion is solved relative to the current centered radial, from the unit sphere, and perpendicular to it, doing the motion. But the motion of the unit sphere is never parallel nor perpendicular to the radial toward the center, the zeros of Lucas force the spiral motion.

So I have moved the uncertainty from the center of the outer shell to at density n, although it may be reflected back toward an uncertain center and solved equivalently.

Anyway, this look like it gets the orbitals. The remaining issue is how does the vacuum do a divide to get tanh and coth from the gradients? One way or the other, I still have a divide function  in here, though Pi is gone. However, I would not be surprised if a= ln(Phi) cancels the divide when second derivative of tanh is taken.

Friday, November 21, 2014

The Fed eliminated the loop in their plot

A month ago or so, I noticed that the reverse repurchase lend lease triple play maneuver allowed the Fed to take deposits from non-member banks. Unfortunately, the member banks also take deposits from non-member banks, while leaving excess reserves on deposit at the Fed.  The result was a loop, known otherwise as the unit root and would have been unstable. I gave them a week before they would fix the problem, and sure enough they did.

John Cochrane reports:
The simple version, as I understand it, seems like great news. Basically, a company can deposit money at a bank, and the bank turns around and invests that money in interest-paying reserves at the Fed. Unlike regular deposits, which you lose if the bank goes under, (these deposits are much bigger than the insured limit) the depositor has a collateral claim to the reserves at the Fed.

This is then exactly 100% reserve, bankruptcy-remote, "narrow banking" deposits.  I argued for these in "toward a run-free financial system" as a substitute for all the run-prone shadow-banking that fell apart in the financial crisis. (No, this isn't going to siphon money away from bank lending, as the Fed buys Treasuries to issue reserves. The volume of bank lending stays the same.)

A second function of such deposits is that, like the new repo facility, it's going to help the Fed to raise rates. When the Fed wants to raise rates it will pay more interest on reserves. The question is, will banks pass that interest on to depositors? If they were competitive they would, but that's not so obvious. If large depostitors can access interest-bearing reserves through the repo program, or now through this narrow-banking program, it's likely to more quickly transmit the interest on reserves to the wider economy.

The repo program will be eliminated entirely.  This has been part of my plot to get central bankers to play with mud puddles and learn: Water in fills, water out empties. Central bankers, quite confused by their own mis-education.

John W. Schoen at CNBC needs to look at the data before speaking

He says: Since the Great Recession lifted nearly four years ago, the economies of the developing world have been slowly getting back on their feet. The recovery has been fueled in part by massive monetary stimulus, chiefly from the U.S. Federal Reserve , which has pushed interest rates lower, and for longer, than at any time in its 100-year history.

OK, lets look and see if the Fed really pushed down rates leading through the crash.
The red line is the effective funds rate, the blue line is the target. Now, let's guide Mr. Schoen's eyes to the drop in rates from 2007 to 2009.  Explain to us why the blue line is always to the right and above the red line?  Is it because the Fed was chasing the market down hill? Yes, indeed it was. In fact, Ben was selling short term securities on the way down, trying to stabilize the drop.

Since then, the Fed has kept the deposit rate above the one year Treasury rate and above the market based overnight rate. But both the latter rates are held to zero by the market, Janet is doing nothing to suppress rates.

In fact, the Fed has very little power to raise rates at the moment, except to raise the deposit rate on reserves.  Will that raise the lending rates? I doubt it, most likely it will simply cause reserves to rise. The last time the Fed actually raised rates was in 1980 when Volcker raised the reserve requirements.

So, a message to  economists everywhere, you have to look at the data before speaking.  You just cannot assume the Fed has some knob it turns; nor can you assume the magic of expectations and forward guidance.  Actual evidence is required.

Eric Holder: Chief Racist of DC speaks

Weekly Standard: Ahead of the grand jury in Ferguson announcing whether it will indict a police officer for killing a man in Ferguson, Missouri, Attorney General Eric Holder has released a video announcement telling law enforcement to behave.
"The Justice Department encourages law enforcement officials, in every jurisdiction, to work with the communities they serve to minimize needless confrontation," Holder says.
"Over the past few months, we’ve seen demonstrations and protests that have sought to bring attention to real and significant underlying issues involving police practices, implicit bias, and pervasive community distrust.  And in most cases, these demonstrations have been both meaningful and responsible, and have brought vital issues to the attention of the public at large," the top cop says in a video.

I guess all those boarded up shops in Ferguson are for rioting, looting cops.