Friday, January 31, 2020

My ten thousand word Spanish dictionary

Scraped from a web site and, with a few systematic editor commands, it becomes a local dictionary in the GNU Flash card frame work.  It is in 60 parts; I import three or four at random and test myself. I am not yet going to Spanish college, yet,  is the result. The GNU Flash card has a fast search, but needs exact spelling. I use the search to locate all the words having a given root.

Runes!

Runes are the letters in a set of related alphabets known as runic alphabets, which were used to write various Germanic languages before the adoption of the Latin alphabet and for specialised purposes thereafter. The Scandinavian variants are also known as futhark or fuþark (derived from their first six letters of the alphabet: F, U, Þ, A, R, and K); the Anglo-Saxon variant is futhorc or fuþorc (due to sound-changes undergone in Old English by the names of those six letters).
Runology is the study of the runic alphabets, runic inscriptions, runestones, and their history. Runology forms a specialised branch of Germanic linguistics. The earliest runic inscriptions date from around 150 AD.
So the German tribes were not the illiterates we thought.

We find runes alphabet on inscriptions.  Any other writing would have been on wood products, long since decomposed. I image folks carved the characters into wood ornaments. The technology was primitive in northern climes,there was no papyrus or anything obviously like it.

The rest of grammar was taught via poems and song and music. The system had fixed verse and stanza to a regular eight count. The system needed the rulers well annunciated poet class, intelligencia who would compose and refine legends before giving forth and maintaining the language of the realm.  Absent writing, there is a strong drift tendency as locals warp the grammar to fit local needs pretty quick, slang is always easy to use around the hood.

Imagine being the mayor of Anchorge Alaska

The mayor of Anchorage is the direct government agent for half of Alaska, the state with about a half million people. His main concern as mayor is getting cash from the federal government, for survival.

The mayor needs to understand that heorshe can have the cash, up to 2 billion a year for the state, cold hard cash. But the mayor needs to do one thing;  recruit a great senator who can manage the federal cash flow. If the mayor of Anchorage sends us boneheads, then we are all frigged, but Alaska will frig first.

Auxiliary words

willshallwould,shouldmay, might,  ought,



These auxiliary verbs cannot stand on their own in English. Other auxiliary words, like can and must, are simple meaning verbs unto themselves.

We dropped the stand alone usage fr auxiliaries. They became verbal modifiers  which greatly simplifies every speech. Being distinct words, they do not interfere with verb pronunciation, and the verb can remain stable, the auxiliaries providing tense.

When there is no written paper to act as dictionary, then the goal is to minimize alterations of the root so the listener can focus on acquiring many more stable roots leaving the tense modifiers to a few externals auxiliaries.

Consider  'need and needed', two tenses, one borrowed from Latin past participle. Then we: can need, needed, will need, have needed will be needing. No change to the stem vowel need.  

There are a lot of objects needed to survive in IE land. The children must sing the praises to the various objects in life to keep current in the dialect, otherwise severe drift and loss of history.

 Thus a tendency to find and sing the root word of everything around the village. Roots first then adding small suffix or prefix is a natural phenomena of memory, when we have no external aids. There are few written signs or marks mostly carved in trees or written on bark.  

Oral languages only work with stable stems (or roots). There is a way to test this.  Identify the number of syllables we can make, identify the number of syllables we can remember  in casual conversation. Then count the items in the everyday world of the speaker. That research should almost certainly find a fairly stable outcome, maybe a few hundred root words can be supported while retaining a beat for pre and post modifiers.  The conversations have to keep the attention and convey the message. Village life is not that complicated, a closed world.

Stocks have a touch of the virus

The virus needs to stop spreading.  The curve is negative, end to end. Stocks dumping a couple of points the last few days.

Chanting and prayers

In a preliterate society, how is the vernacular standardized? The kids have to learn the poetic stanzas. The dialect is easily lost especially as folks migrate. Legends, ancestor worship and deism all offer the opportunity to centrallize the standard vocal grammar and keep everyone on te same vocal usage.

Preliterate tribes are always at risk of losing the dialect absent some library of poems, myths, prayers with which everyone stays practiced on.  Speaking the same language to a god from generation to generation likely worked well.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

stand, stood and subsist

From the same IE root, *sta-.  "to stay put"

But the later, subsist got Latinized, the former did not. So we get stand, stood, and likely staid, the forms direct from IE. The past tense of subsist is subsisted, Latin  past tparticiple.

Exist, like subsist, from the same IE root, I think. (The dictionary seems ambiguous)

occur and run

Occur, concur, incur all come from the IE root of run, as in a horse runs. And like correr, in Spanish, they all have been Latinized.

The English run is from the similar IE root to flow. It never got Latinized.  So we still have run, ran; the IE form of conjugation. Weep, wept, sing,sang, sung; ring, rang, rung. This is how the pre-literate done their tense changes. They likely had children's songs to make their grammar stable.

Eat is another that skipped Latin and sounds like it was mangled in Old English.

Past tense, -ed

That comes from the past participle, I am pooped, from the Latin and is like Spanish -ado.  But is got converted to a verb, in the past tense, somehow. So id slept and wept which were sleeped and weeped, like blessed; fully pronounced. This sounds like a cheat, borrowing part of the Latin system to get a cheap past tense as a suffix.

We need the vitrual etymologist

All jobs ultimately get help from the bots.

e need a bot that reads the etymology text and constructs the derivation graph, including loops. Based on history, the bots can suggest derived and actual words to us agents, helping us create our own tribal languages. It would be an add on to google translate, let someone build new witting for special purposes and still be cool.

Sing, sang, sung

In linguistics, the Indo-European ablaut is a system of apophony in the Proto-Indo-European language. An example of ablaut in English is the strong verb sing, sang, sungand its related noun song, a paradigm inherited directly from the Proto-Indo-European stage of the language. All modern Indo-European languages have inherited the feature, though its prevalence varies strongly.
But, it says later, this frorm changed:
Consequently, the athematic verbs became a non-productive relic class in the later Indo-European languages. In groups such as Germanic and Italic, the athematic verbs had almost gone entirely extinct by the time of written records, while Sanskrit and Ancient Greek preserve them more clearly.
Using prefix and suffix modification became more populat before writing was common.   Their conjugation chats look similar, but they are reconstructed and match some ancient greek and sanscrit well. Active verbs had either an action completed or and ongoing action.  Verb suffixes were a or o.  Latin does indeed seem o be a dictionary format, the first effort of etymology to putt his all into a formal written grammar.

Why do we have both er and ir conjugations?

Their indicative forms are nearly the same. I have not looked very far, and make the speculation that the IE root was oral, and the common vowels a,e,i.  They would have appeared as suffixes in IE I would think, as simple verb conversion from a stem, selected for vocal separation.  But that necessity evaporates in the written because the verb for  has a complete conjugation set at the suffix.

It seems a waste and a bunch of er and ir verbs got consolidated into ar somewhere during the Latin reform. I see only 60 regular ir verbs in the first 2,000 verbs. Some traces of the verb suffix came direct to English from IA, I think. like 'er' to make a noun out of a verb: run, runner.

The imperfect tense of ar verbs is another odd ball.  iba forms seem like a special construction from the vernacular, as if it was in common use for 'do this thing since the past'.  But the er and ir forms f that same thing seem more natural. I dunno on that one.

This business of etymology is fouled a bit because the actions of previous etymologists on the language are continual. The construction of formal written Latin grammar had a reverse impact. The intent of Latin was to let many of the tenses and person fall out of the stem when there was no such thing in the vernacular. It was a method for putting the local vernacular into a formal context for written translation. Hence my point, speaking formal Latin was more like quoting from the dictionary and doing an ongoing translation.

Spanish has a woke problem

Sex and the singular pronoun 
The folks at Merriam-Webster dictionaries named they as their 2019 word of the year, citing a dramatic increase in online lookups during the year. In some ways it was a strange choice. The word-of-the-year awards, given mostly by dictionary publishers and linguistic associations, usually go to recent neologisms that have become voguish. They is in a different category: It dates from Early Middle English in the 13th century, borrowed from Old Norse. Most of the uses that spurred its newfound notoriety date from the 1300s.
The “new” sense of they is as a singular pronoun. By a confluence of natural linguistic evolution and a couple of social-engineering campaigns, the word has been thrust into prominence in the last few years.
The evolutionary part has to do with the lack in English of a common-gender third-person singular pronoun. The problem often arises with indefinite pronouns: Everyone can think for himself. Herself? Themselves? Themself? If we stipulate, as 18th-century grammarians did, that the indefinite pronoun everyone is singular, what reflexive complement are we to use? In 1745, an English grammarian named Anne Fisher posited that the masculine singular pronoun includes the feminine. So for more than 250 years, speakers of Standard English satisfied themselves with Everyone can think for himself. Grammarians became resolute on the point.
But this solution never really sat well, especially toward the end of the 20th century. Feminists argued (rightly, I think) that the generic masculine pronoun was sexist. Hence “enlightened” speakers would utter, ploddingly, Everyone can think for himself or herself.

They can them can become ungendered in English, bu they are still ellos, and los, las in Spanish.  Further, the 'a and o' endings are often used to redefine an adjective. 

What if google translate got woke?  Insisted bots do not have gender. What if google translate did not get woke? Bots would run around thinking humans are two genders!

There is 'le, te and  me 'which ae ungendered. They are indirect. We can create 'a' form: 'A le, and a te:

To the ungendered possibly human thing(s)  is assigned the action, thus converting the indirects into directs. This gives google translate a path to wokeness. Another conversion is mismo.

'Le misme' becomes a direct and also subject pronouns, misme becoming the ungendered woke modifier replacement for self or selves.. Meaning 'Those possibly human ungendered things doing something'


Another possibility is just recognize 'le and te' as possible indirects or directs or subjects according to whether the speaker desires to appear woke.

Contraction Mexico

MEXICO CITY, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy shrank for the first time in a decade last year, data showed on Thursday, as businesses reined in investment due to uncertainty over the economic policies of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Adjusted for seasonal swings, Latin America's no. 2 economy contracted by 0.1% in 2019 after growth of just over 2% the previous year, according to a preliminary estimate published by national statistics office INEGI.
Gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged during the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months, INEGI said.
That was slightly better than the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for a contraction of 0.1%.

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Similar and seem

Come from the same IE root, but the former got Latinized. The IE is *sem- "together". Butduring latinization it got a formal verb ending, likely in late Latin. The original IE root was in early Latin.

semejar - Spanish for look alike fro *sem-.  The past participle semajado.

But the Spanish borrowed back 'similar' from English for similar.  *sem- goes way back, evidently an easy way for the IE people to tell two or more people to get anything done.

One of those Black Swan Thingies hit the curve

Ten year at 1.58%. Did I get that right? I looked three times. That is a 3 basis point flat curve, we cannot even afford a bond trader today. Global trade is the mechanism, the quarantines. Epidemics are the worst.  A big rush to 'safe assets', assets in the hands of the competent primary dealers.

Stocks broke even on the day, after a good start; evidence that the severity was unexpected, underpriced. Watch California, they have the technology trade and operate the western ports. California had already reduced growth by half, from the high 4% range, however. They will not stall at a 2% growth, but cities will be under severe pension stress. There is a deflationary force, as seen by oil prices, and that force is killing sales taxes.

The commonality beteen Latin and Fibonacci

Latin used parchment to tabularize grammar
Fibonacci used paper to tabularize finance.

From old Latin tabula "slab" (see table (n.)).  Note tabular is an 'AR' verb as interpreted by Spanish.

This is likely an old term, going back to mud slates.  Phoenicians first imposed a two dimensional form, a serial from of words and order. Order is important because you scan backwards and importance diminishes as you scan farther forward or backward.  And word size mattered.  Parchment added prefixes and suffix, gave order to words and it all fit in a table in the dictionary.  

Fibonacci did much the similar thing, imposed positional order and prefixing on numbers, then number order mattered. All made possible by the utility of paper, cheap enough to be used ad hoc as a calculator.

Scribble is doing small writing, defined about the time paper begin to arrive: Medieval Latin scribillare, diminutive of Latin scribere "to write" 

Both Latin and accounting were both meant to be specialized computing formats, one a translator, the other a calculator. Formal Latin was simply the Roman consuls defining events in foreign posts, managing the chronicles. They all likely spoke in their local dialect, an made room in the upper left corner of the conjugation chart for themselves. So again, verbal Latin happens when the sepaker is formally quoting from the official table. This goes back to old Summerian inscriptions on architectural walls, the official speaker knows the code.

Today's computer literacy is composed of meshed nets, searchable via a number of features. The feature set upon which these are traversable nets has gone way up, due to Moore's law, much higher dimensionality and humans unable to create tabular form without a software interpreter.

McLuhan was right, easy spot when television suddenly boosted media bandwidth by two orders, it added sequences of 2-D tables, suitable for video. This had a tremendous impact on slang, which sprang up globally, almost. We got a sort of creole vernacular among a whole generation, suddenly.

But, look in detail to the information technology shocks, they are real.

Kind of like banker bot

A Warehouse Robot Learns to Sort Out the Tricky Stuff
Covariant, which is working with Knapp, built software that could learn through trial and error. First, the system learned from a digital simulation of the task — a virtual recreation of a bin filled with random items. Then, when Mr. Chen and his colleagues transferred this software to a robot, it could pick up items in the real world.
The robot could continue to learn as it sorted through items it had never seen before. Inside the German warehouse, the robot can pick and sort more than 10,000 different items, and it does this with more than 99 percent accuracy, according to Covariant.
A pit boss does the same except the pit boss incentivizes the traders  to conform to the marker making error allowed.  There is no such feed back  in this warehouse system, but with additional learning the solution can be found, within some bounded error.

The math is similar to our pit bosses. Organize the flow into a 'value added net' that produces separable features in some complete sequence.  Thus the semantic decision tree can always be kept minimal as long as the bot continually checks the feature sets for redundancy.

It is still an entropy maximizing process, a virtual loop closing process in the structured queues. Under the hood we will find most of the auto-learning bots to be special purpose pit bosses. This is a co-invention, sandbox gets partial credit.

Government debt is not cheap

The red line is the total interest charge as a percentage of debt, including social security. The blue line is real growth.

Using this metric, the government has been paying much more in interest costs than new tax generated via growth.

We can see that since the crash, that Treasury has gotten a better deal. The problem is the one I always mention, we pay yesterday's higher rates for today's spending.  Things have evened out a bit since the crash.

However, government liquidity is spent as the CBO chart of spending shows all discretionary spending is driven toward zero and the government is forcing an  an entitlement economy on the system. Thus we will be having sudden stops when government liquidity dries up.

Una adicta a cocaína en la casa

La anciana se enoja en la mañana despertarandose. Enojada en aparente confusión al perderse su dosis de cocaína. Ella esta pobre y lo que ella necesita hacer para obtener su medicamento es deprimente su mente. Ella está en la cocina , yo estoy callada. Se lava y sacude una sartén o dos con golpes fuertes. Algo, algún tipo de acción de su parte me hará producir al menos diez dólares.
One short paragraph to set the scene and I can introduce the conflict in a short few paragraphs.  Goggle did about half this from English, I did about half from Spanish. The Old woman and the narrator are the two main characters, we see that right away in the conflict for money. We know they are in the same house, the environment need not expand much further, except maybe to the corner store. 'despertarandose' is to much construction for this simple story, I wold find two simple words to substitute. I am about keeping the 'beat'. I do not want the reader slowing down to deconstruct a word.

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

National threats and the Gutenberg press

The problem here is that national government has not choice but to nationalize a language of the realm.  The King cannot let the most popular books be written in English or Latin. Each royal house has to create its own scribe industry, the etymologists and dictionary experts to prepare the local vernacular for movable type. Thus the permanent alignment of language and government. Schools teach the new grammar.  Legal notices and contracts and news all paper printed in the king's grammar. Along with this, a reduction in local dialects. There is that span of 400 years with just paper and parchment from 1000. The missing part except what the Church its philosophers were writing. was writing.

 The 400 years was mostly about commerce and financing and banking.  Adapting the new math to the world.   Once the etymologist can get a measure, of some sort, on the relative bandwidth of the new media, vs the old media, then a lot of possibilities can be ruled out in the silent periods. Like we can rule out that the Old High Germans were writing chronicles while the Romans were.

The movable type press froze the Latinization of language and literature. The long slow process starting with ancient Latin. Nations had to go with the local vernacular, and their philosophers went to work on that. much of Northern Europe and the original German based grammar stuck around, only to get mangles by England and America.  But we also got some of the reverse, some nations artificially adding Latin phraseology where it is not derived. It all would have happened fast as the press technology spread.

200 hundred years later and we have newspapers another technology advance causing another consolidation in national grammar.

Bandwidth is how many, how often. What is the total production of messages. Newspapers greatly increase that number, by consolidating the dictionary. The steam powered rotary press fits this bill. It could print out catalogs, pictures, lists and she simple semantics of mechanical construction. This book skips national languages and open a markets across continents. Standardized mechanic construction would drive the industrial revolution.  This is 800 years after gutenberg. But we are talking an order of magnitude increase in messages sent. t that point I call it Morse's Law, the regular doubling of media bandwidth about every 5-7 years.

Steinbeck vs google translate

Below the fold, and Jack London vs google translate.

There is no state capacity left.

I define state capacity to spend suddenly and innovatively, to have liquidity. It is gone, as fa as the eye can see we will be delaying discretionary spending.

Fibonacci and paper

Arrived at the same time.

The church had already reformed and consolidated Latin and it was in wide use, in the church.  Church schools taught the scriptures in Latin. And the church had settled on a standard script.

Fibonacci introduces position value on paper, the complete set of numbers, and do the multiplies in 2-D tabulature mode, no need for an abacus. Then we get formal paper banking, letters of credit. Paper is cheap, it is affordable now for everyday merchant use, accounting is real and paper mills spread throughout Europe fairly fast.  Children can now practice writing Latin.  Now we can manage a ships manifest, maintain the price of inventory, bear witness to financial transactions, ad we get contracts, balance sheets. Church notices become more frequent, and folks can copy them, mail becomes important.

Paper will also, I suspect, spark the beginning of national written languages. It is 400 years until movable type, but we get wooden block printing for emblems, seals and art. But paper is cheap, the script now standard and anyone with a bit of education can copy the church notices and take them to their village. The role of town poet goes away.  Stage drama and music  can have paper scores Every town has to have a literate person, someone to use paper. There is another  split between the local vocals and the Latin writings.

Conjugating the simpletons

I have he full conjugations of indicative for ver and salir. Both of them commonly volacalized, so we expect vocally induced irregulars in the upper left corner.

The great questions of our time




¿Su chicle pierde su sabor en el poste de la cama durante la noche? 
Cuando  mama dice no mastiques, ¿te lo tragas de despecho?

It is the name

Pompeo is known to get angry and yell at those who work for him. 
It is no fun growing up known as the pompous ass.

Proactive etymology

Or it can be the Old English intensive a-, originally ar- (cognate with German er- and probably implying originally "motion away from"), as in abide, arise, awake, ashamed, marking a verb as momentary, a single event. Such words sometimes were refashioned in early modern English as though the prefix were Latin (accursed, allay, affright are examples).
In etymology their is always the problem of the same person teaching grammar and making dictionaries.  That person will cheat, to make life easier and we get, again, lossy compression. It is hard to find the path backwards in the tree. But the other point, they are using Latin for its intended purpose, a etymology text for the scribes, a dictionary format.

The arrival of parchment and Latin would be a new tool for the locals, and advantages to getting the local dialect inside the dictionary, finding its Latin format. The individual trading channel widens when the local merchant learns a bit of Latin. The two together, quite powerful effect on history.

My Latin list of mean 'a' words. Seize, grab, delay,appropriate, and various forms of personal harm delivered to another.  a- means something like get active as near as I can tell, or get active against. I am always confused in reading my high school spanish, I get one of the man a- things and mix them up.

Etymology

In classical times, with reference to meanings; later, to histories. Classical etymologists, Christian and pagan, based their explanations on allegory and guesswork, lacking historical records as well as the scientific method to analyze them, and the discipline fell into disrepute that lasted a millennium. Flaubert ["Dictionary of Received Ideas"] wrote that the general view was that etymology was "the easiest thing in the world with the help of Latin and a little ingenuity."

Latin etymologia, from Greek etymologia "analysis of a word to find its true origin," properly "study of the true sense (of a word)," 

The science goes way back. The Latins ere good at it, what else did the Latins have? Parchment. What is the most valuable book for a trader or governor? A foreign language text. Speaking Latin is like speaking from a robot created grammar machine, some set of rules constructed in debate in old Italy y a bunch of linguistic expert, a dictionary format. There was a huge payoff for getting this right, a multiplied by having the parchment monopoly for a start.

Drunken, English Pirates

El diablo ¡yo—ho—hó! el diablo ¡viva el rom!”en el que todos los vecinos se le unían por amor á sus vidas, con el temor de que aquel ogro les diese la muerte

RLS talking about the Captain who had the treasure map scaring folks in a small English village.  Now this passage is funny, but why do I see it as funnier in Spanish?  Because of the effect of a second language. I am a high school reader of Spanish, so I am getting this new as if Iwere in high school. I would 'suddenly' get the humor, having not seen it before.

The feeling inside is like getting the beat and melody of a sentence, like finding the vocal equivalent, then the text becomes like music. Language is ultimately vocal, musical; that is how it was invented.

Then:
y cada cual procurando levantar la voz más que el compañero de al lado, á fin de no llamar la atención por su negligencia, porque en aquellos accesos el Capitán era el compañero más intolerante y arrebatado que se ha conocido.
This is all google translate.

Trump got us into a drone war


Iranian media: CIA agent behind Soleimani killing shot down in Afghanistan
Taliban claims CIA agents were onboard downed plane but won’t verify who
It is becoming a drone war, one our military is not prepared to fight, one in which Inhofe and the Defense Department deliberately hid from Congress and the Executive.  It is a war Trump does no have the brains to understand, as most of our uneducated senators.

This is where that 4 trillion lost in bogus weapons development bears on us, the military is mostly about protecting complex systems. That is a very poor, losing strategy in drone wars. They are not smart people back there.

How does the Solow growth model work in an actual economy

Agents actually search for the indifference curve on labor.

The are looking for the point here one additional hire has little effect on company outcome. The result  is to make the labor input queue look like it came from gaussian arrivals. They issue hiring orders based on the observed output gap. Makes the dynamics look Euler.  Thus they can reconstruct the process as a Euler outcome, use exponential and simplify the process. That is the whole idea, keep linear so company accounting is accurate, the hologram effect.

But the labor queue becomes a structured queue and the real economy is producing the best linear approximation to the Euler conditions. At any given point in the process, the economic model will look like it is in equilibrated with a large error bound.  Each set of trials the agents cause the error bound to reduce. They are creating structured queues until the risk is sufficient to some necessary error of the market.

Sandbox theory. It is all about reducing round off error from a fractional approximation of low order. I have a short cut for real businesses. You want you open job designations defined well enough so you can get a labor pool about one and half three times larger then open jobs. This is a self sampled system, both labor and manager create a labor flow dynamic based on.   Management always wants one or two potential hires in the hopper, labor wants zero or one new company in the hopper. On the average this ratio minimizes volatility as it operates at the Nyquist rate.

Monday, January 27, 2020

Failed Hispanic State

Suing California to Produce a State Checkbook
Just a few of the serious financial problems facing California include unfunded public employee pension promises, a potential state credit downgrade, an unprecedented homeless crisis, and a net out-migration of 912,000 residents since 2010.
One easy step California can take is to join every other state in the union and open up its state checkbook for review. Allowing citizens, journalists, watchdogs, academics, and public policy experts to review state spending would help the state get its fiscal house in order.

Unfortunately, last fall, California State Controller Betty Yee (pictured) rejected our sunshine request for the state checkbook. Oddly, the rejection didn’t argue the law, but instead claimed that the controller couldn’t locate a single one of the 49 million bills she paid last year.
This admission provides a troubling clue to California taxpayers who are wondering how and where their money is being spent. The answer is the people spending it literally don’t know. Or they at least say that don’t.
Like Puerto Rico, Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras, Guatemala.

Too late but never mind

Restoring Fiscal Order in the United States

John Taylor trying a little string pushing. He wants to gradually lower the level of the Federal budget. He wants to pay of the losses from 40 years ago:



Look at the ten year. we suffer debt deflation. We already have decided not to pay off those losses of the past, we voters are not responsible and plan on defaulting.

The structural reform John wants is too deep for him to contemplate.  The likely scenario will be a disruptive default, like the Nixon Shock, I am afraid.  We simply have a problem: ignorant senators running the government into bankruptcy on a regular generational basis.

Our real interest rate, interest charges divided by total debt (including SS),  is 2.25%. But the growth rate is settling down to slightly below 2%. It is a losing proposition, we already are bankrupt. There is no reverse path, we are unable to look backwards and identify the losses needing to be written off.

Stupid legal experts

Legal experts call on Chief Justice John Roberts to subpoena John Bolton and other witnesses to testify in Trump's impeachment trial

Smart legal experts would not let Roberts run amok with the constitution.

Old German High Language

The language in use from 500-1300, about three hundred years.
We have one one written version of the language, this dictionary made by a monk to translate language into and out of Latin.

A belt with inscriptions was also recovered from another site. No one knows what kind of writing was on the inscription. Old High Germans was mainly a vocal language, likely a straight shot from IE, and it was the language used when Germans began migrating west and south.

By this time we had late Latin, not the early stuff, but the Christian monks were the new scribes. We can see them carry on the tradition, using Latin as a dictionary language.

It takes Trump three years to learn the simple stuff?

GOP Sen. Mike Braun: I Think Trump Will Learn His Lesson From This Impeachment

That would be a fairly stupid GOP.  I do note that Dems rarely learn anything,  so the GOP, on a relative basis, is about as bad.

They pay default prices for debt

Lebanon’s Debt Clock Ticks as 2020 Budget Passes With 6% Deficit
Lebanese lawmakers approved a 2020 budget plan with a crucial Eurobond payment weeks away, leaving it to the new government to decide on whether to pay creditors or save what’s left of the country’s reserves.

The fiscal program passed on Monday by a vote of 49 to 13, with eight abstentions. The legislature approved the budget that envisages a 6% deficit, a far cry from a goal set by Lebanon’s former government to bring it close to zero. It includes no new taxes.
The market already assumes a default is n the way.
LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Lebanon’s sovereign dollar-bonds suffered fresh falls on Tuesday in the wake of a stark central bank warning, with yields of issues maturing in the next 18-months climbing to around 30%.
What is the point of a deficit, in accounting under the circumstances?

The interest charges will not be aid, not with yields of 30%  So pricing of government goods is completely broken and this budget is mainly the legislature choosing the items it wants to avoid cutting.

Sunday, January 26, 2020

I think he is already impeached

David Brooks: You Can’t Impeach Trump For Something That Hasn’t Happened Yet

And the impeachment, part one is valid because Roberts, part two, signed in to preside. That makes this part three, for you David. Part three is where a majority vote acquits. The voters are a fairly dim bunch of senators and enough senate members of both parties have reasons, unknown and likely irrational, to stretch this out.

Anonymous ledger swapping

This is the typical problem: Person A agrees to  enter a transfer into ledger a. Persom B has ledger b and agrees to a similar transfer.

This is a contract, how is it enforced. Person A watches ledger b to see that the transfer completes before timeout. And visa versa.  Miners for either ledgers can hold a transfer in their observable, secure chains for some period, a few hours maybe.  During this period, they will reverse the transfer for a fee, a fee that approaches the transfer value as the timeout nears its end.

There is, thus,  a 'fails to deliver' fee, and the miners collect it. They collect it mostly on failed fraud in which both scofflaw and victim pay the price, both reverse and both pay the reversal fee. In all probability it is a losing battle for the scofflaw.

It does no matter the form of the ledgers as long as they are as secure as the reverse protocol is likely to be snookered. In other words, spend enough, measurable  money to chase the scofflaws. It is a measurable risk, in fact, we do it all the time.  Further, a contract like this is enforceable in civil court.
Further, this is the typical and fundamental swap, matching saps internal to two ledgers.  Most of our contract can be built using this method, and contract holders can specify, in the contract, a notary bot that does the watching automatically.

Just this one fundamental exchange, make this standard and use it across all sort of different debt and stock ledgers. It does what we always do in sandbox, find the leak and insert a trading pit to organize the queue. The trading pit made of traders wanting reversals vs miners charging for the effort. The entire thins is over the counter, except the ledger watching and miner fees. Sandbox, what would the world do without it.

Regulation as a dual ledger swap.

A regulation is the same form, the government wants the trader to execute a transfer on the tax ledger whenever the trader executes a transfer on some other ledger. For example, pay the government monopsony ATM fee, a half point if you are trading at the Fed. You are a regulated bank, your shareholders agree to the contract and it works the same. Pay the fee or the Fed will reverse your last transfer.

All these contract form are enforced by trusted agents that act as notaries on our behalf. This is all over the counter trading, bu it can be applied to high speed auto trading in the pits easily enough, with some lag.


Whoa, oil below $53

The oil that yahoo quotes and I look at, That price has been hanging around $55, I though for sure it would hold at $58 given the Iran hoopla. And Libya oil is shuttered, I hear.

So I am thinking the global trade slowdown is worse that thought. Watch out for a 1.5% GDP growth, that is tipping point for California, and we are close ti it.

A measure on commutative power

I semantics we have no measure of the ability to qualify partial matches. It was one of those things, words do not have prices otherwise banker bots would be reading. So the match process when translating must be well defined in a general convolution of two semantic nets.

Quantify the match function with an allotment of commutative power.

All grammars, we assume, have some sort of stem and pre/suffex system.  Any given word can be categorized by how well and often it uses the designated stem/modifier system.  The computer can read widely and build likelihood trees for stem variations, find a measures of variability on a per stem basis. The measure tells us how deep into a semantic net is needed before a negative match is declared. We have actually priced the link traversal which is what we want. Then our reading comprehension problem oils down to finding the minimal spanning tree that represents the translation.

Er,ir,ar???

I am getting both hints and confusion.
ar means to be the thing, er means to do the thing, ir means the thing moved. 

Maybe the IE people  separated the things that can be done with a stem to make it a verb. Er, ir and ar and likely others were stem modifiers turning a stem word into a verb. The Latinizers would have created categories of these according to modifier so as to define all the tenses for the verbs. In latin such a scheme becomes regularized, because they didn't care if modifiers were a bit out of place, it was strictly a literature dictionary.

Be, ben; the original conjugations become iba iban. The Latiniers recognizing e and en as a commonly understood modifier to meaning 'to become' for the stem word.

Latin being the dictionary was not actually spoken, at first, but quoted. It was the method for defining a local term to the Roman counsel. You local agent talk in the local vernacular then stopping to define an uncertain terms using the Latin dictionary format.

Then paper came along, it was cheap and everyone could use the Latin dictionary which was now quite complete.  Almost everyone up to that point spoke the local vernacular, even the Roman bosses. Latin translation was, however, the official written language.  It was their only written form, the Roman bosses controlled parchment production for a long time, long enough for the scribes to basically finish their grammar.

To be, to go, to do were always vernacular irregular, in direct and indirect derivation from IE. They both continued to be warped in the official Latin and Old English, because they were never meant to fit into a grammar.  In the early Latin they can be regularized, in writing only. If you spoke the grammar you sound like noise. These are always there, the local vernacular irregulars, the every day words. Once we had paper, we had no choice, they need be included in the written. I think if you look at the rise in newsprint you will see a period of consolidation and compression from the original latin stems, like what the French did during that period.

Grammar in the computer makes a biog change. The computer can abstract the local vernaculars and identify them by context, and maintain huge dictionaries rapidly searchable.    This is evolutionary, suddenly increasing the number of stem words by two orders of magnitude because they are separable by context. Th computer does 'nets or nests', not some one dimensional serial stream. Local rules of grammar become an almost free variable, two parties can talk in some detail in a made up language of jibberish, as long as hey have a simple rule set and dictionary. I am not sure how we will handle the shock.

See ya later Lizagator

New Hampshire: Sanders 22, Buttigieg 17, Biden 15, Warren 13

My flash card system

I have all the Spanish verbs in one flash card file, nouns in another,flash cards with lists and flash cards with complete literary passages.
ignuit 2.24.3Educational software for GNOME, following the Leitner flash card system.Copyright © 2016 Timothy Richard Musson <trmusson@gmail.com>
The verbs are regrouped by stem and many are partially conjugated for the irregular. I have lists of sample usages for many verbs. I have lists of nouns in the noun package, lists for the kitchen, house, neighborhood, store and so on.  I have lists of Spanish proverbs. I have lists of verb usages for verbs I mix up and need to practice. My words lists have a category common nouns and the the more complex nouns found in literature.

If I need a word, say 'mist', I check all thesaurus and list the synonyms and pick the one I want to use, based on how well google translate does with it.  Google translate does a lot of list management, al my new words get listed in the translator.  I also collect the Latin derivative and add that to the master definition of the verb.

My flash card system is efficient, a stand alone GNU. I can run it and read passages, proverbs, verbs and nouns; in order, by search, or random testing. I can see them all listed directly in the flash card directory manager.  So, I can take a passage from Steinbeck, work through it once to get my key stem words into a list. Then keep the passage and its translation on a flash card; read it multiple times util I am fluent with the passage.

The whole thing is modeled on a real flash card reading system I had in he fourth. The Catholic School. It was a huge, ordered collection of 8 by 11 carded passages, with an associated set of questions on the back. The student read them in order  of complexity, at their own pace. There was an associated appendix of word definitions for words introduced at the current level.

That system is easy to set up, ad hoc for special language reading and analysis or general reading improvement or in depth dictionary management. Real simple, all cut and paste, works well with google translate.

I can import as comma separated list or swap with xml format. It wold be nice if a compatible Spanish dictionary already existed.

The Fed targets the one year, not the PCE

What was the Fed thinking while adding three rates cuts?

PCE was stable enough, hardly changed. But the first drop in the one year scared the Fed and they lowered.

Then something new happened. They knew they were caught. The Fed and the market began competing a bit and the one year managed to line up exactly with the cuts.  This is the first time that happened since the Nixon Shock. The Fed is effectively hedged good news in my opinion.

The drop in rates happened when global trade slowed and we went from nearly 3% growth to slightly below 2% today.  The Fed cannot measure real GDP in run time, but bouncing off the one year is a pretty good representation of the economy for this central banker given the dollar usage we have.

When we force the Fed to remain withing its uncertainty bounds then the spotlight turns to the Senators versus the primary dealers.  The one year rate really measures the ability of the senators to do cash management rather than the primary dealers.  We will see this whole thing operating as a tax, and when the Fed is hedged that means Congress does not get that seigniorage surge is normally gets waiting for the primary dealers to react. When seigniorage turns into white noise then the Senators need to do some cash management themselves.

Declare an invasion of the Space Aliens

Ted Cruz: On Monday, Trump’s team needs to make the affirmative case – ‘Can a President investigate corruption’?

It worked well enough that Inhofe approved he Texas Space Cadets, it might offer a fake news story getting impeachment off the news. We have a fairly dim set of senators, as you know Ted.

With a failed state like California?

How to avoid America’s coming secession crisis

California is too chicken, the Hispanics ran away from 'Californias' they are not about to turn back into one. The real problem is we have no way of kicking California out.

Sit and Sat

Goes back to Old German as near as I could read the fine print.
Spanish, from Latin, is sentar, and I  siento and siente.

Now, the second path went through Latin, and to Old Germans it would sound like Pig Latin, they repositioned the tense change.  The Old German would laugh but get it. The speaker is just using the formal dictionary, as if to express the definition, not the word, using formal Latin rules. IE people would assume this is just a dictionary system.  As if a speaker stopped, explained a word and the way it is being used, then went on.

Explains the four verb endings in Latin

Latins put in  four slots to place a stem.  The local dialect, the manner in which it changed tense, could be fit into one of the four boxes and not be far off from the vernacular.  So, it was a conscious choice by the Latin scribes, they were making a dictionary format, not a language. It was the same for the Phoenicians, it was all about global trading networks.

The Latins controlled parchment for quite a while, and controlled Latin. They ran the grammar system. The natural effect is a selection, a filtering or bias on the stems, slightly pushing them beyond the original vernacular. Rome and Greece wee the classical writers at the time, the scholars.  Setting order when stems compete is what scholars do.

Consider the latest Moore's law jump

An advance in communications, how will the shock effect us?

The characteristic of this modern processor is that it will ship eight byte words, always, whether you like it or not. And it can look up eight bit words in the shortest path with single instruction compares in eight byte words.
So, the code book is suddenly growing, the new computer wants everything packed into a 64 bit word, including text. It needs a lot less grammar.  Note our search engines, we mostly worry about word ordering and about specifically selecting the unique word. Most of the grammar is gone ecause the search engine can plow through eight character works in an instant. I have a bunch of code posted on that.

This is a bit inhuman, and the technology will be providing online translators, real time version of google translate via google search, for example. We see some of this in online spell checks, and drop down selections on spelling and sometime grammar help.  All of that will be made more intelligent, and more easily managed, and the search engine semantics adapts to our local colloquialisms. The bots hold and manages the dictionary and structures the grammar.  The bots are the collection of personal servants help us decode, and our conversations with the bots contribute to an evolving dictionary.

Saturday, January 25, 2020

IE people meet Latin and parchment

Latin was a framework for inserting stem words.  Local IE, living to the north where papyrus never lasted suddenly had a written frame work, adaptable. If you run, and Latin lets you 'er' it, then become a runner. The core stems for the IE people remain, they can add the tense suffixes, which likely were similar in any event.

Latin was a set of dictionary rules, optimized for parchment. Fit your stem into the rule set.

Courier and correr

Courier from run. Whet does the er mean in English?  'The one who does it" Runner, player, etc.

A little insight, but it helps me remember if I need a courier, how it is basically changes in relation to its root. Ten the insight into 'er', as in, 'the thing that does the stem word'. Where did that suffix come from? Directly IE, or indirectly via Latin? Did the Latins take it directly from IE?

IE people, had to remember and recite very long poems and tales. They will have tense and person; actor and acted. But it is a very low bandwidth medium. Whatever the IE folks were ding with tens and person, the Latins formalized its description with a formal grammar. Making it translatable, sending around a better, shorter  dictionary, compact and optimum for parchment. But everyone needed a more formal grammar, needed to reducer uncertainty. Similar story always.

Latin potis "powerful" from this we get power and likely posses, Spanish poder, . potis is a deep root, means lord, or the boss man likely in IE.

The arrival of newsprint

A JOURNAL OF THE PLAGUE YEAR
It was about the beginning of September, 1664, that I, among the rest of my neighbours, heard in ordinary discourse that the plague was returned again in Holland; for it had been very violent there, and particularly at Amsterdam and Rotterdam, in the year 1663, whither, they say, it was brought, some said from Italy, others from the Levant, among some goods which were brought home by their Turkey fleet; others said it was brought from Candia; others from Cyprus. It mattered not from whence it came; but all agreed it was come into Holland again.We had no such thing as printed newspapers in those days to spread rumours and reports of things, and to improve them by the invention of men, as I have lived to see practised since. But such things as these were gathered from the letters of merchants and others who corresponded abroad, and from them was handed about by word of mouth only; so that things did not spread instantly over the whole nation, as they do now. But it seems that the Government had a true account of it, and several councils were held about ways to prevent its coming over; but all was kept very private. Hence it was that this rumour died off again, and people began to forget it as a thing we were very little concerned in, and that we hoped was not true; till the latter end of November or the beginning of December 1664 when two men, said to be Frenchmen, died of the plague in Long Acre, or rather at the upper end of Drury Lane. The family they were in endeavoured to conceal it as much as possible, but as it had gotten some vent in the discourse of the neighbourhood, the Secretaries of State got knowledge of it; and concerning themselves to inquire about it, in order to be certain of the truth, two physicians and a surgeon were ordered to go to the house and make inspection. This they did; and finding evident tokens of the sickness upon both the bodies that were dead, they gave their opinions publicly that they died of the plague.

Daniel Defoe writing in 1664. The boldface is mine, it is in the first paragraph of chapter one.

It was newsprint that defeated the plague. The newsprint  spread the word before the plague arrived and people could self -quarantine, be prepared.  But this is part fiction, he was only four years old during this plague.  That is roughly 350 years that newsprint dominated mass communications.  The period includes two or three industrial revolutions.

By the 1700s news reading was a requirement of life, for the poor and wealthy. That implied a period of grammar consolidation and mass education. Narrowing down the code book once more and getting the kids up to speed. It becomes a lifesaver.

The arrival of news print would cause a disruption in the etymology graph going backwards.  Information delivery was put in the hands of semi-free press and served commercial needs making life a whole lot easier for all. The ten day wait for European news in America was excruciating, it is hard to work with news that is two weeks old. Waiting for news print drove the development of the telegraph.

The common denominator seems to be trade and information about trade, especially prices. Looking back I suspect the most urgent need for information tech, starting with mud slates, has been prices and inventory management.

Two sandbox terms are useful, code book and bandwidth. hen the technology suddenly offer greater bandwidth, the tendency is to simplify the set of stems and add richness to the rules of grammar.  We did not want thousand page dictionaries needed to newspapers i 1630. Rather we wants a smaller dictionary and better ways to build complex grammars. This rule hods from mud slates to optical communications.  Morse code is an example, the message set is tinier, but metods of addressing messages and routing them was a grammar, adding richness of delivery, enabled by higher serial bandwidth.  Papyrus and Phoenicia enabled business managers to be engage in foreign trade. Larin allowed super power rule. The messages became much more complex with Latin grammar, but the stem words got narrowed down quite a bit.  Huffman coding. It something is very rare, like wanting to have done something in the past to protect my future actions?  Hey, that rarely happens, Huffman coding says use a bunch of helper words and leave bandwidth to the more frequent, repeated
messages.

There is a tension, a permanent arbitrage if one can sneak dictionaries around faster that expected, like price lists. That tension has driven information tech since the dawn.

They stuff don't work an Trump done started another mid-east war

Analysis: The Pentagon has a credibility problem, and it’s only getting worse

Like dufas squared. Then you add in this primitive imaginary religion called the Texas Space Cadets, and you see a pattern. They got about 4 trillion in losses to explain, retiring modern bombers while the B52s from the 1960s reigns surreme?

We should believe Liz?

Warren Responds to ‘Angry Dad’ Over Student Loan Plan

Who gets the goodies and who pays for them? According to Pocahontas the solution is to elect her, the leader with proven moral wisdom.  I would like to see the proof.

My pln is different.  Those who pay for the defaults are those who believe in central banking, a fair deal, in my opinion.  I don't have the moral wisdom of Liz, but I know how risk gets parceled out.

Making verbs from nouns as an illiterate Indo-European

I poke into the etymology a bit farther looking for the origination  of the Latin verb suffixes. It looks, so far to me, that the etymologists can derive an IE form of person and tense.  -o -e show up in the discussions of which I just now am beginning to understand.

So the Latins kind of standardized these endings and grouped them deliberately? into the er,ir,ar forms? It sounds that way. The er,ir,ar was all about simply grouping them so it was easier to match the proper IE suffix to a particular stem word. Was it purely a Latin grouping? Dunno.

But, reado and learno more. (I can see how Pig Latin was invented).

Phoenicians must have still had a large code book since they were weak on grammar. Is this true?

Latin scribes by grouping the stems according to the ar,ir,ar system could reduce the code book size without too much distortion from the vernacular. The Latin scribes were deliberate, likely bringing in native speakers from abroad and literally reorganizing their grammar to meet the widest use as a foreign language dictionary. They likely had conferences, university style lectures and debates, then literally voted on the proper form of parchment grammar.

It was never about Italian grammar, specifically, but about creating a commercial dictionary for running the empire over many dialects of IE. The scribes creating a general grammatical structure in which local vernacular could be inserted, almost by rule This would be almost a mandatory tool needed for a far flung empire. It was an evolving system when scribes translated inot their own language and corrected the dictionary. But all parties shared in the advantage of a complete grammar structure, all their code books shrank and they could get greater literary audiences.

You no longer needed the poet. If you were trading from Spain to Greece and wanted to explain the product, just insert the local stem word into the Latin, pick the proper ar,ir,er form. Then, at least, you had a pig Latin translator, but more likely the local stems had already merged and it was a case adding a slightly modified form. Latin grammar forcing a reverse path back into local IE vernacular.

Pompous, the man who got us suckered into another Saudi il deal

Mike Pompeo Goes Postal on NPR Reporter


With this guy we can count on foreign policy blunders daily. Worse than Hillary.

Our current VP is a worse nightmare

Defense at Senate Trial Says Removing Trump Would Be 'Very Dangerous'

Pence is clueless, our version of Leslie Nielsen.

Repub oil deal gone bad

U.S. General Says Troop Surge in Middle East May Not End Soon

ABOARD THE USS BATAAN — Over the past eight months, the United States has poured more than 20,000 additional troops into the Middle East to counter the escalating threat from Iran that peaked with the recent missile attack on American forces in Iraq.
Despite President Donald Trump’s pledge to bring troops home, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East on Thursday said the most recent forces to enter the region could be there for “quite a while.”
“You’re here because I requested that you come,” Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie told sailors and Marines aboard the USS Bataan amphibious assault ship, his voice booming over the ship’s loudspeaker. “I’m not sure how long you’re going to stay in the theater. We’ll work that out as we go ahead. Could be quite a while, could be less than that, just don’t know right now.”
This is not unusual, every repub president falls for the Saudi oil deal and we get entangled in an expensive mess.   This will always happen under the current government structure. As long as we have idiots like Rick Perry and the Texans.

Where do the workers come from?

Population growth is way down in the green line.
Total employment to population down, the red line. But younger workers are employed at the higher ratio, blue.

Leading me to believe that we have a miscount.  Those are not all new jobs, many are modified jobs after the boomers retire and the retired jobs are not counted accurately.

Friday, January 24, 2020

The Phoenicians

There is dimensionality here.

Characters can have curves or vertical lines or horizontal lines, and be centered or facing left or right.

We have: centered, orientation, count. Likely 10 bits whe it is all sorted, google can do this with alpha zero, find the optimum feature shapes and counts to minimally represent those shapes.

How did the Phoenicians figure this out? Because they were taught to do them as kids when learning to speak. Vocalizations are an optimal spread of basic lips, tongue, throat and teeth movements. We call it enunciation, mathematicians call it the optimum Huffman encoding for mouths speaking.

If one just imitated the mouth with the hand a lot of those symbols appear. The 'o' sound. The vibration of 'z' and ';s' become wavy fingers. The explosive sound are the fist opening, the the stops the fist closing. Those triangles like ducks quaking, and kids have done that hand sing for ages.  Imagine the puppeter of that era using hand shapes to simulate puppets speaking.


Making true phonetic alphabet, for the bots

We assume humans have a finite set of distinct vowel and consonant forms.

So, take their spectra from a representative sample, the standard sonic spectra used in signal processing. Then using the miracle of a major transformation of which I do not remember, covert those to probability spectra, finite bandwidth. Then measure first,second,third and fourth moments of the distribution. Use these for a four dimensional space and encode the spectrum into a spread about the origin, weighted by frequency of use. Huffman encode by moments then pack a sphere. Each phonetic element ends up with likely a nine bit code, 1,2,3,3 bits per dimension is my guess. It becomes a four color problem, bu likely can be reduced to a three color.

Add a few bit, no problem, but you end up with a damn good phonetic alphabet, and as long as it is for bot to bot comm, then humans do not even care. Add a bit of grammar, rules for conversion to paper and rules for conversion to sound.  But sound is no good without mouth, have rule to convert to mouth shape on the video along with vocalization and the effect is much better.

Twain vs google translate

Google translate ran into a bit of a problem when Twain begins quoting the peculiar vernacular of the plans folks in 1830. How would google know that? Most of it was recorded by Harte and Twain themselves, so google is stuck in an uncertainty. It cannot translate all of twain until it had arleady trained on Twain.  But otherwise, google did real well because Roughing It was a straight forward diary of a young literate on a trip, grammar well defined, chosen words uniquely translate into the closed environment of the story.  I other words, google translate always has sufficient context to easily resolve ambiguity.

Le vida perro

Una vez ,  mi humano y yo estuvimos caminando hacia la madriguera de comida. No estaba sosteniendo la correa, lo que fue arrastrando detrás de mí. Encuentré un hueso, estoy feliz, Lo mordió y comencé a correr hacia mi madriguera.
I can almost do this without google translate. I keep getting lost on how 'holding a leash' translates. I forget the verb  bite. Otherwise I can handle the pronouns and connectors such as Lo que. Verb conjugation is working except I still need to look up estar. I run across madriguera quite a few times for burrow, though there is a simper term somewhere.

Another:
Uso mi nariz para oler, estoy habilidad de oler las aromas muy pequeno. Mi humano aperece sordo y ciego en el asunto de oler.

Here I am constructing things my dog may do and her reasoning, if chihuahuas have reason.  I need "smell,  and bite and tie around my neck". Then I strike a bit of a metaphor introduces the senses. I am building a finite set of consistent semantics for the life of a simple minded chihuahua and a cooperative but anonymous human.

Meanwhile in Mexico

The disposable generation: children and adolescents at the service of organized crime

A story about young kids in Mexico have no opportunity except join the cartels. In the cartels they become armed fighters and have short lifespans.

The young and very poor boys  in Tijuana:
 Aspire to become hit men,

killers who make a bundle.

Frackers hammered

Wolf Street:
Following the sharp re-drop in oil and natural gas prices in late 2018, bankruptcy filings in the US by already weakened exploration and production companies , oilfield services companies, and “midstream” companies (they gather, transport, process, or store oil and natural gas) jumped by 51% in 2019, to 65 filings, according to data compiled by law firm Haynes and Boone. This brought the total of the Great American Shale Oil & Gas Bust since 2015 in these three sectors to 402 bankruptcy filings.
The debt involved in these bankruptcies in 2019 doubled from 2018 to $35 billion. This pushed the total debt listed in these bankruptcy filings since 2015 to $207 billion.
Oil can gt beyond $56 and stay.  But the CPI keeps climbing at 1-2%. Something gotta give, looks like it is the frackers.

Herd of Shia

Purple was the color of the day in Baghdad.

Platter then a Flancake

NAME
YIELD
TIME (EST)
1.53%4:59 PM
1.53%4:59 PM

1.52%4:59 PM
1.49%4:59 PM
1.50%4:59 PM
1.68%4:59 PM
4:59 PM
We only need one bond trader at 15 basis points per trade salary.