Saturday, October 31, 2020

If you bought government bonds before the Fed covid tax

 Europe’s Bond Investors Win No Matter Who Takes the White House

Then you bought them at a lower tax burden compared to buying bonds post covid. So you are elastic up to the new wedge when you sell on the run. In other words, you can wait longer in the trading pit for the better price.

Who caused the sudden stop?

England will enter a month-long lockdown from Thursday, Boris Johnson has announced.

Until 2 December, people in England will only be allowed to leave their homes for specific reasons, such as education, work or food shopping.

Mr Johnson, speaking at a Downing Street news conference on Saturday evening, said there was "no alternative" to a second period of national lock down restrictions.

Jammed hospitals.  

In this case neither employer, employee nor government official wants to take the liability for clogged hospitals. I do not really blame them.  

Harris County Clerks are common carriers and can collect bsllots

 Gov Abbot fouled his order limiting drop off boxes in Texas.

The boxes were placed at county government locations. The Law states the mail in ballots must arrive in person or by common carrier to the central vote counter.  But the county clerks themselves are legal common carrier sand deliver official paper work as a regular duty. Documents delivered from any county clerk on official business is considered a legal common carrier delivery.  The very definition of voting official is one who aggregates votes by common carrier actions.  These judges are dumb as turnips.

The defendants and plaintiff fouled the Texas story.  And Oct 3 was too late for Guv Abbot to restrict drop boxes. The defendant made  some horse manure about covid, but it is difficult to connect covid and Due Process.

Gov Abbot and the state judges are mostly low IQ, the solution is obvious, county clerks can act as common carriers for official election business, the Texas election law which attempts to limit the definition of common carriers is horse manure written by the generally low IQ citizens in that state.

We need something to improve the IQ levels of these bonehead governors. Having these dummies in key executive locations is bad news for multipliers.

Egad, the real stuff

U.S. reports world record of more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases in single day

A record of us against the past. Looks like a second wave, it is the same snake. But no matter, we will all extend out covid timeline, and that means a longer drawn out contraction. that is a longer goal post and coin tosses are short.  We be at the fourth down with an impossible can kick.  A meeting of the elders, call the trick play. Causes sudden stops:

Cuomo: NY visitors must test negative for COVID-19 three days before arrival

Occasioned because they fear capacity in their covid wards, another sudden stop. And some regions are reaching capacity. Sudden stops make an unfair coin and interest charges for covid bets rise. We need covid products coming down the pipeline, that is the number one pay off. prays, inhalers, masks, shots, tests, gargles and vapors. Another difficult reversal:

"A Lot Of People Are Leaving": COVID Shutdowns Have Turned San Francisco Into A Ghost Town

He needs to conjure one of their spirits

Trump faces an existential risk: Slipping Catholic support

He might mention, casually, that Thomas Aquinas showed up for a discussion of  science. That would thrill the crowd, they actually have temples devoted to the guy. Or, say, you were in bed, one night dreaming, and the Virgin Mary slipped into the room for midnight prayers.

How come protons do not evaporate?

 It is the complementary question to why don't black holes evaporate. We are conserving energy, in 3D, in our optics and in our models.

Maybe the 4D version is stable, maybe the heart of the cauldron leaves a spiral in the fabric of space, like the big bang echo, except this is cyclic and stable from a 3D point of view. We are congruent and lose information, but the cosmos never loses it. Black holes do no exist, what we see is increasing spiral about a torus outer axis.  Protons do evaporate, torn apart by the induced spiral, but that event never appears  us. And ultimately we have mini bang eruptions, which we would see as something like a quasar. These eruptions are shape shifting the fabric with a second slight curvature or moment. Houston, we need a second constant.

My latest unit of economics

 The TWEC, the Tax Wile E Coyote moment. 

Comes every eight to ten years. There is a moment of congruence when all the tax issues pile up into one election. The following quarter we suffer random and severe episodes of TWEC.  Depending upon the severity of the TWEC pandemic we may have various sudden stops in the Swamp, or in California. I expect Q1 to be TWEC season, get your TWEC vaccine today.

Traders have to connect a bunch of dots in terms of overlapping tax changes. In essence it is about reshaping the tax dodge value chain to match the new tax distribution, another portfolio rebalance and we will be throwing coin tosses to the tax accountants.   A market requant, but they are good at it. This is not free entry and exit.

Biden's economic plan

 Big problem, no one wants to spend until we get the devaluation contract better narrowed. No one doubt the Fed has kicked its last can and deserves a new contract for things not really its fault. If not the can then the tech has pushed it into unfair boundary. This much is in the Overton.

Getting a bunch of small state govs to agree on another ten years of earmarks, misses a great opportunity for revenue sharing. Once stared the earmarks cannot stop until end of cycle, and Fed cannot kick that can.

So, Biden is up against a better plan, free the Fed conditional on revenue sharing then have infrastructure week.

Evolution in sandbox terms

 Boltzmann is working with the scofflaw rate. In physics it is the tunneling rate. In evolution the scofflaw rate is the unwanted transfer rate across some container surface, its leakage. The subsequent collisions partition along the available axis from nitrogen interacting with phosphorous, using what ever energy is flowing. Imbalance causes excess bubble surface and failure. It is all chemistry, but increasingly experimental in that Boltzmann need only determine one of a small set of options at each step.  Boltzmann never intended to evolve us and on 99.9998% of other planets he never bothered.

Bubbles, spores and geodesics

 If the bubble reactor dries into a spore of the proper proportions, for the season, and it gets a very ligh mist in spring,what happens?  We get the lowest order expansion of our chiral pseudo proteins.  This is like photo electrons, we are quantized to energy levels. The various contortions of the phosphoroud, nitrogen are at distinct energy levels. he smallest noticeable spring brings out the lowest level first and it appears geodesic, compose of those amino pairs that make the matching  partial pressure of the residual mass of pseudo protein. There is still excess work for Boltzmann.  But his new geodesic has variability, it can shrink and expand a bit, and it pumps water and carbon.  But in doing so we further restrict our seasonal latitude. But the new energy level dominates in that region.  Now we have spores that can dehydrate in reproducible spores and hold geodesic layered bubble surfaces with more partial pressure insulation. But now restricted to a very unique seasonal path. I Boltzman wants to keep finding work he needs differential surface mobility on his spores, they need to float the appropriate weather patterns and migrate differentialy. Weight alone keeps the spores in the same valley, for example.  Or they can be light weight and maintain a better  temperature floating.  Once evolution has protein geodesics, it has another kinetic energy axis, it can survive in the atmosphere for matching the geodesic that lands it most optimally. Boltzmann, always needing another axis under extreme congestion.

If we include lower atmospheric bouncy to our pseudo protein bundles the Boltzmann will create the equivalent under waters bouncy as it has to minimize surface collisions.  Each collision with a floating spore causes the opposite reaction, and this is still chemo kinesis and that is distributing of aminos to accurately absorb the collision.  More filtration of the environment as a logistics problem in maintaining chemical reversibility with the appropriate delivery at the proper energy transitions.  It is successive approximation, so Bolzmann rules out all but the most optimum maintainable energy levels at the most appropriate spot. Winner take all. Boltzmann decides by build the most convenient container at the current level, then lets nature take its course until he finds another optimum container. Each container holding some excess kinetic energy.

A dimensiona anaysis

 My claim is that natural chemistry partitions a primitive set of chemicals to manage a seasonal exchange of two distinct phase stages, to match the seasons. And that is life.  

Evolution doing random chemistry to tackle the chaos of mixing chemicals and energy. Earth and seasonality is much more important to evolution then we thought before. Any odd change in rotation, irradiation, and we may not have found the proper latitude for a seasonality  that maximally utilize nitrogen, phosphorous to manages carbon and water.

without chiral for managing the alternate state, it would be impossible. But chiral is very slow to unravel, that is the secret and the limits. A potential disruption in the spore mean searching chiral. So chiral is a season filter. I takes a long time for water to seep out, essentially. But the bubble reactants do not want more spiral then needed, as it has to unravel during wet season. Thus, a season rate must be adapted to get the optimum partition, overall, in chiral. The pond needs to maintain a partition of the wrong chiral for food storage.


If you match latitude in this model to the optimum expressability of chirility, if possible, then only one latitude would stand out. The possibilities of nitrogen and phosphorous maximized across the two alternate phases of pseudo proteins. The division in chirility makes for the maximum combinations of contortions in these ladder networks, and the subset of those that take a season to unravel makes for reproducing life.

These spores are like primitive viruses. They are slightly exothermic when wet hence act as active filters for the amino separating layer. They will become endothermic in maintaining a wet layer under warm conditions. The combination is specific, only the nearly exact partition of aminos will work and dominate simply because they are catalyzing the most carbon water reactions by having the optimum ratio of pseudo protein chiral. They carry earths watermark, so to speak, and dominated way before anything we really call a cell happened.

My bubble evolution continued

 I hypothesis a long period of chemistry with no life, and only Boltzmann and the random, consistent energy flows in the pond.  Reversible reaction would tend to congregate, Otherwise the others wash away looking for another pond. We get chemical layering and we get nice balances of phosphorous and nitrogen.  Bubbles make reversible chemistry chanbers.

But we get layering, like skin. In an environment with a stable variety of short amino acids and  we get partition between those that sustain reversible reaction at the current energy flow down through the pond. An active reactant filter, a skin. Which actions are reversible? The ones that can do a symmetric switch across a nitrogen axis. That means all the nitrogen configuration mostly have a swap which neutralizes. A consistent surface tension can be maintained 

Nitrogen and Phosphorous will hang there is reversible quantities with phosphorous at the bottom. 

What happens to the odd ball nitrogen forms? They drift to the bottom and pack in. If exposed to sudden energy they cannot form complements and form tertiaries with phosphorous.  As such they consume the left overs sufficiently to set a barrier, a point under the skin layer where there is no matching with the skin. 

This is Boltzmann still, generating useless work from excess energy flow. The result are partitions among set of reversible reactions. There are no reaction to blow off steam,  it is hot and humid at the surface, the vents bubble at the bottom. There is a point where the two flows balance, a surface, and reversible reactants will converge. The collisions align movements, and there is a layer that minimizes collisions, a Markov spot. Nitrogen and Phosphorous will hang there is reversible quantities.  They will layer such that the rate of water and carbon passage vertical to the equal energy surface is constant. This minimizes collisions. maximizes reversal flow. 

The tertiary structure nearthe hot spouts have one extra degree of freedom than a flat surface pond.  They cause exchanging of surface aminos to force curvature ad we get colonies of chemical reactants small reversible built around each hot spot.   This is all Boltzmann distribution charge among a finite set of configurations in a consistent energy flow with a hard boundary. There is no other entropy maximizing choice except useless partitions.   Energy flow, Planck radiation and absorption, temperature and concentrations will find their balance because excess collisions result in kinetic movement along the equilirbiating axis. But introducing the tertiary axis means the center can deliver exothermic reactants by spherical tension. That forces the sin to shed more complex hydro carbons, carbons with tertiary form. That is water storage, that lengthens the life time of our chemical reactor.

Sex and seasonality

Our chemical reactant bubble chambers under go seasonality when the pond dries and the bubbles shrink to a ht mix of amino skin layer and the tertiaries phosporous and complex hydro carbons from exothermic. . We get pseudo proteins, asnd along with that we get chiral.  What happens when Boltzmann partitions chirility? We get a disrete torus, we get some small, finite pods of pseudo protein that collects all the ingredients for reproduction, in a circle about the hot spot. The wind can blow one of these pods over to another hot spot, and wait for the rains..

That is life, that is chemistry. It works because Boltzman is stuck, he cannot get the radiation he needs, he is stuck with too much energy flow and needs to get kinetic energy axes. Botzmann does random work where he can find it. In the end the only way to dissipate the energy is wind and clumps of dry pseudo proteins.

This balance could only be found at a certain latitude where the sequence of reactions can be maintained through the stages in the season. Like the chemist doing tow step reaction and has to leave the intermediate step a a cold temperature for a specific length of time. That matching point created reproducible life, it is the alternating generations concept, two phases for the right combination, and a path from one to the other.

Covid sudden stops

Energy’s Plunge Is Now Worst Among S&P Sectors Dating to 1928

We will be allocating more coin tosses o the covid problem. Those are liquidity losses to other sectors.  In essence we have dropped down a notch on the Markov 3 tuples, this is equivalent to switching the covid axis up in priority.  There is a  transaction fee, the covid distancing function. This forces home production, buy in bulk, minimize transactions. Velocity drops in both shadow and regulated banking.  

The covid transaction costs are now a value added chain, allocating covid social distancing costs. In school districts the chain is adjusted to apportion covid risk fairly. Restaurants, retail outlets. A lot of this is more over the counter delivery and fewer public queues. 

The solutions are facing bottlenecks in production for antibody, and oddly, the infection rate is too low to get efficacy measurement on the first generation vaccines.  Then we are coping on what is likely a seasonal issue, so we need production flexibility in the mix. This is a rebuilt bitotech market, a three year job. 

This is not a second wave, it is really the first wave following its unique path. It leaves a race of preparedness, ex post. So the truly second wave might be next year.  Mostly we want to look at New York and other big cities for a repeat. We get a good look at immunity length. We need more trials aimed at high risk jobs so we get efficacy measured. 

Friday, October 30, 2020

Unilateral acts of war.

US Seizes "Largest Ever" Haul Of Iranian Missiles & Oil: 'Enough For A Large Military Force'

Regardless of the legality, we are at war with Iran. So I am still confused by the 8,000 troops he has surrounded by a million Iranian militia. Life must be miserable on the front over there, locked down permanently into bunkers.

I notice the US carriers do not hang around the gulf waters much, and this is likely the extra expense of monitoring thousands of potentially dangerous drones in those parts. But Iran is in the arms business these days. This all seems highly erratic, and the side effects bounce around, like the rise of the New Ottoman Empire. It is not the legality of this, the Senate is as likely to screw i up as Trump. It is the  switching of sides, oil deals, arms sales, along with the arbitrary  war declaring. I see no gains, for the  USA, Ruskies or Ottomans. I see increasing chaos, enough growth in chaos to test my sincerity to the anarchist cause.

Liquify the earmark

My single presidential refusal message.  Make the earmarlk tradeable.

Fund an earmark market between House and Senate. In sandbox, using network reduction analysis, I could liquify my sister's chicken soup.  If the network problem is reduced to a small, finite stable distribution network, finite spanning tree. That is in the model and in the implementation, pricing the entry and exit queues for production and delivery. A search of the facebook trees delivers exactly that, and setting up a bit of the market that cover her canning and delivery.

Give me a distribution of election ballots and the ballots themselves. They are mostly in the same, restricted and closed language. I can treat those as shares in information flow, match the semantics of ballots to positions on a government goods value chain. his lets me predic congestion flow on government chains, places where for some odd reason, one distrcit is bidding at the wrong time for a particular earmark.  Show them on the ballot the points in which they are tightly congested for funds in the total flow

Also, determine the equivalent interest gains and losses needed to keep each node on the chain within bounded inventory. Do all of this automatically, with a good search engine. Then tell each state or house district their ex post interest gains o losses, given the total payment flow, in one or both directions. .  They can hedge their position and adjust the issues on the ballot to minimize government dead weight losses to themselves.

The devaluation tax

 What is it really?

It is the market determined  cost of known losses from past bonehead government.  The losses long untraceable, unaccounted for but still have a residual in compounding interest charges. The tax system way too imbalanced to apportion it fairly, so make it a universal loss, an inflation tax on what ever fool needs the monopoly tax dollar.  Many of this debt derived from period when pricing was in chaos and government had little idea. There is no moral or legal basis to assign charges on about a third of this government debt, say each of 20 years, that is too long for  any fool taxer to look.

Why fake, why not bet it?  It is central bank money, technology here is competitive, know one should complain, their is an inherent dead weight loss for the monopoly tax dollar. So, go ahead, the most fair ting to do is collect about a sixth of government revenue from double spending, put it in the ledge contract. It is not a problem, the bankers are not at fault, there is no need to excite the Post Nixon Shock Hysteria. Then renegotiate the tax next time around under the coinage power as defined in immutable Law.

The main reason for the losses are the earmark costs, and it is natural top tie these costs into incentive grants n revenue sharing.  Unbalance government chain is no ones fault, that too is immutable by the law. So, make the revenue sharing market to spit the inflation tax. We then tie the coinage power with tax power, there is no law suit from the House when the Senate agrees to a Fed contact. The New Fed covers a fail monopoly fee, more more than a quarter point. The New Fed is almost completely out of the tax business.

My plan is backed up by numerous economists Nobel winners defacto, dead or alive, it is in the books. And it is simple, it needs the governor of Wyoming, my new hero to get this clue. The small state governors make this work, they control earmark flow.  A few of them, two, three is all I need, I am close.

A shared senate Treasury responsibility


The inflaton taxes. If we estimated the total facotr unproductivity using th Solow Euler approximation, then it is nearly 2% per year, or about 10% of the budget at a minimum. The Solow losses are unrecoverable, at that bound, lost in the noise. The House is not responsible, they cannot be traced back to districts. In central banking the coinage power includes these Solow losses. They are a natural responsibility of Treasury to discharge, not the central banker. The myth is that the central banker can discharge inflation tax, it cannot do so in a double entry accounting system bounded by public auction markets. 
The Fed cannot double spend, its fundamental job is to be hedge, it forces the market to no arbitrage at the soonest possible opportunity. But at the same time it is trying to inflate at some rate of maximum entropy. Proof:  Reduce the problem to a race condition in a round robin automated market. Once the pit poss sets an inflation payment, all the accounts want to jump in and reset their S/l accounts.  The Fed is operating a known hedge, as seen by periodic congestion build up.

 Inflation taxes are different color, different partition, spin in the Marlov 3 tuples.. The inflation tax is an estimate once step removed from the S/L balances, and that tax needs to be asynchronous to the Fed pit boss. In proper sandbox lingo, the inflation tax is a fails to deliver, s an exogenous scofflaw queue, viewed equally by the Fed and its accounts. That is, the cost of inflation shared by balancing the cost of crossing the partition for all processes on the S/L bidding board. So the bid flow in the computer itself has to have an inflation market to bid the future decisions by Treasury. You can almost get all this from balanced flows in a network of protocols and exchanges and sing protocol stability theory.

The is spin equal two, a 2,y,z point on the 3 tuples. There is another partition that manages the other spin angle. But no problemo, it is still Due Process fair, it is a Constitutional requirement, variance bound by contract, and as fairly applied via revenue sharing as possible. So, given the hard bound, we can reduce the possibilities of other methods around this problem. There are few. That is Boltzmann for you.

National Review is proposing government funded fetus farms

Pro-Choicers, Not Christians, Are Today’s Abortion Fundamentalists

If the Ghost and Goblin crew at National Review would observe technology for a second they might see their true position on this. If the state stands in for the fetus then the state will be providing fetus farms as abortionists become fetus harvesters, putting fetuses into a pod and drop them off at the state fetus farm.  We will be mostly charging the Ghost and Goblin crew a large tax hike to pay for it, and the kids will grow up in the Matrix, hardly a Ghost and Goblin fantasy.

What we are getting is downloadable shadow banking.

A public option, but for banking.
That’s what Reps. Rashida Tlaib and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are proposing in a new bill unveiled on Friday.

The Public Banking Act, first shared with Vox, wouldn’t create those options by itself, but would foster the creation of public banks across the country by providing them a pathway to getting started, establishing an infrastructure for liquidity and credit facilities for them via the Federal Reserve, and setting up federal guidelines for them to be regulated. Essentially, it would make it easier for public banks to exist, and it would give some of them grant money to get started.

Then the zinger:

The intent of the proposal is to try to guarantee a more equitable recovery by providing an alternative to Wall Street banks for state and local governments, businesses, and ordinary people, and by ensuring such banks provide services to historically excluded and marginalized groups. The public banking bill also does double duty as a climate bill: It would prohibit public banks from investing in or doing business with the fossil fuel industry.

Aways the catch, and many more catches in side the bill I am sure.

But the big problem is that a public bank is a smart phone app these days. If the bill passes, the governor of Wyoming will have downloadable apps for his generic ledger servers. Likely a very good thing. But it indicates the issue, a public bank bill by itself is a whisper in a technology hurricane.

“It’s not that tomorrow you’re going to see 1,000 of these across the country; it’s still going to be a hill-by-hill, city-by-city battle,” Grey said.

We are getting a thousand of internet banks, most of them in place today or soon to be formed. But they are still a bit primitive running on V1 of Eth contracts.  But V2 allows much simpler proof of stake and faster response.


Grab one of the skirts from the secretarial pool

 

Gavin Newsom jokes about picking Kamala Harris’ successor as he votes in Sacramento


Gov. Newsom will appoint a U.S. senator if Kamala Harris is elected vice president

Senator is an affirmative acting appointment i California. 

What makes short chain cash work?

 Two thing.

Finite count and time means the lock chain always trims, and thus can be automated. There is an automatic loss limit barrier.

And second, the count limit means the search length is short, the updates back to master chain small. The server can parse these requests out simply because each task is a bound search time. The merchant gets quick response once he customer account is located.

So, we end up with a huge search engine, like twitter, google, facebook, amazon,.walmart. Like a URL server with leased URL instead of buy.

Like I say, this can be done for any market with digital entry and exit of funds. One cold write the generic liquifier and attach an interchangeable API port. For the central bank carrying the monopoly tax currency this means you are hedged, your tax and fee costs marketed covered by time and count risk. Any attempt at regulation raises entry and exit costs, thus lengthening time and count. Central banks no longer have first in line luxury, they are trapped by the technology.

This leads to a chain of events, dominos, the main domino is that the Fed can no longer hunt down markets to tax, a really huge domino. And they are being blocked at the retail level by short chain cash. They are at the mercy of PayPal, MasterCharge, Coinbase, and the governor of Wyoming.

How legal?

 China's Central Bank Poised To Legalize Digital Yuan As Part Of Sovereign Fiat Currency

I open an equity company to sell shares. I register a Chinese account.

Then I can sell shares, and put my shares on a finite block chain at par, a neutral liquidity service, universal yuan payment architecture.  Buy shares in my company and you get a legitimate address in which to trade those shares, in smaller or larger quantities.  My shares are stable shares. The yuan deposits and shares outstanding up to date and public and protected on the short chain. The payment protocol is available on any smartphone, and it is symmetrical, both parties register and address and they can swap on the short chain. The app is proof of stake, all exchanging parties agree and no one else cares.

How soon? Anyone want to take bets? China just assumed a huge regulatory burden if they want to spy on transactions.

Digital yuan requires a third party check with the regulated bank, as did the old yuan.  The big difference, with digital yuan we can automate when and where we swap accounts. So the shadow transactions will be much cheaper and faster and just as safe. Risk can be adjusted easily by paying the entry fee back into a yuan account from the stableshare block chain. Shadow banking has optimized the insurance cost of central banking, we only visit regulated accounts for money launder and taxes.

Think of stable shares in Black Scholes. It is an over the counter stock with alpha fixed at one. Otherwise it measures all the other Greek letters needed to neutralize a distorted central bank. Traders would buy shares with count and time limits, depending on the re-entry cost of the central bank ledger. The company would be known, say, liquid US Tax Dollars, if no one has the trademark. All the merchants would have a TD account, the app is down loadable and they all got smart phone, and it is ever connected via wifi, so it is one click on the price, one transaction, the TD short chain is cleared via proof of stake and the customer signature. The merchant handles his own miner code. At some time convenient to the merchant, say once a week, she can clear all the 'Stable Shares' back to swift by selling at par. It should be a switch from the swift ledger to the customer swift ledger, minus re-entry fee.

Hillary's plot

Russian Blitz in Syria Warns Turkey to Back Off in Caucasus

 There is a suggestion that Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking revenge for Russia’s assisted defeat of Ankara’s plans for regime change in Syria by making trouble for Moscow in its immediate southern neighborhood.

Hillary concocted this plot with Turkey to oust Bashar. 

The plot went to hell and Turkey blames Russia. So Ergoden is on a revenge rampage for getting stuck with a zillion Syrian Sunnis of the Mohhumerdude sect. He is also mad at Europe for not eating up a zillion refugees.  Hillary stirred the pot, bad idea.

Then Kushner switched sides, leaving us in de facto support of the Ottomans and ISIS allies which no one wanted nor planned for. But Trump being fairly clueless still has no idea what a mess this is.

The gulf oil states are freaked out because they are defenseless against the Iranians and their drones without US. Israel cannot protect those states, and the US troops are far from ready to take on Iranian drones. And another portion of these same states are scaredy of the Ottomans redux.  

It it all a mass of misperceptions and asymmetrical information. Turkey gets caught in the middle every time.

Ottomized Mobs

War Spillover: Turkish & Azeri Mobs Hit Streets "Looking For Armenians" In France

Turks been Ottomizing the Sunnis

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Finite element model of a torus world

 Put objects in a torus. 

Then pick a view point, and set your two radii. Collect the light along the shortest spiral paths and plot that on your surrounding sphere. Keep doing that, causing the objects to be reordered depending on how you set the radii ratio.  

Then set a vacuum decay, let the ratio equalize toward the middle. That is going back to a 'big bang'.  You should see objects coagulate on the inner surface. But the universe is much bigger, and we likely keep five of those quasars doing their job, and they are more powerful than we imagine, they reset our constants in physics. 

But anyway, we can revers that. Put objects in a sphere the way we measure then, then try and limit the backwards combinations that make a 4D object until we find constants that fit a torus view.

Consider vacuum decay

 The vacuum tends to cool because entropy is always maximizing. That means more complex structure, less redundancy. But the vacuum need collisions to reset its expectation, it decays. It mainly decays by dropping its 4D capability and expects a 3D single center, one moment of curvature. The interplay is bouncing between 3 and 4 relative primes. We are a slightly over condensed universe, dunno why, but we bounce up to the fourth then decay back down.  

So we have a clock after all. Do the spin experiment multiple times over the next million years, look for vacuum decay the fouls the experimental results. This must be a natural equilibrium for an extremely large set of almost nothings. Becoming sparse and losing curvature makes density unsustainable, and there is a re-establishment of the cosmological constants.  So as the vacuum decays, mass seems to accelerate along a common axis. 


Our universe, but unstable. The small radius much closer to the large.

When you fall into a black hole you are just spiraling the route around the interior of the torus. If the vacuum decays then you tend to spiral out, and local matter is in much closer proximity to each other. Using my definition of decays. On that inner surface should be a ring of quasars, maintaining balance.  

The vacuum is another self sampled system. Whatever its solution, it must be maintained by collisions if it is closed.  There is only one way to maintain this with almost constant N, and that is unstable dimensional jump. 

If the vacuum is decaying then how is entropy maximizing?  that rings of quasars around the center should be the fourth binomial. But there is quite a bit of error, that inner radius is not well defined.  There are not black holes, just a black circles inside the torus.

I think the universe is cyclic sand much much bigger than we think. But still closed, and that is the fun part. This idea must be kind of provable if we can set and test boundary conditions on those two radii.

Take any closed model that is finite dimensional. Rule out the null model. I think you might be stuck, and most optimum math requires three and sometimes four relative primes. I speculate that is the Law of relative primes. The fundamental constant of Ito's calculus? Proof that Avogadro is a dimensional constant?

Consider looking at a 4D quasar with 3D lens

 When we see a quasar, and adjust for our 3D model, we collect observations that match in arrival, on what we think is a straight line. But it not a 3D straight line. The quasar is forming a slight torus, that beam of particles emitted from the center is really a funnel surface, empty inside.  

How do we test this? The best shot is to look at intensity changes in the eruption, bottom to top. Then commute what that would be in both the 3 and 4 dimensional models. Then do the same for that planar view of mater being swallowed. See which model explains the most.

If we could get two perfect mirrors in space, for apertures, on either side of the sun,  out by mars. Then exactly refocus their beams to a center point. We can dither a bit, we might just see the funnel, like a tornado. Or just get a monster aperture, enough to resolve down to the quasar center size, we just might be able to spot the tornado in an odd shaped gaussian blob, with kurtosis..

Measuring spin from a distance

The machine generates photon spin. I measure it at a long distance and so do you. How can our measurements be related outside of the experiment.

We both have accurate clocks, we know we are sampling at the same time. We do not now that the spin has a slight spiral we did not account for. in the quiet of the experiment, we are both measuring the same phase in the chiral. In other words, we have done what we intended, measure a quantum field. But I think that is simply another relative prime in the vacuum expectation. It is slight, but noticeable.

Black holes

Mass does not spiral into the black hole, it just spirals down the inside of an inner tube, and we are doing the same.  Then the issue is, do we spiral out or in from the tube center.  That depends on the ratio of the two curvatures making our cosmological constant. Super massive black holes might just be super masses spiraling along an axis we do not see.   We would think them coincidence in space and time, they are not. Quasar happen when those two curvatures are equal in some 4D interval, The separation of curvature enforced, we see an explosion.  


How did evolution make a torus?

 Why are embryonic cells in division act like 4D elements?

The cells in embryo tend to spiral u in movement making a torus center. Evolution went from a 3D system to 4D between the jellyfish and us. If evolution were trying to get as many relative primes from the genes as possible, then at 4D, evolution must have master spiral, chirility in gene as an information source. If nature had a pond where chirality was segmented, perhaps by the actions of jellyfish, then the various combinations of genes would eventually utilize the redundancy, using evolutionary selection for 3D genetic codes.

The jelly fish gene remains, call it spin, it appears as the placenta, and has the leas entropy and eventually discarded. But how do the cells select their genetic expression? The kinetic energy tells the cell when, the mothers chemical input tells the cells what. The mothers input always recreates the original pond.  The chirality appears twice. Kinetically the anus and mouth separate, but they must have an absolute north south pole in gene chemistry, meaning the mothers influence guaranteed to trigger the complentary gene expression.

This 4D world would have originated in a very energy and nutrient rich environment of jelly fish. Jellyfish that learned to spiral up and down to reduce congestion. Adding that motion to the pond is like a mild centrifuge, just right for giving evolution a new partition.

It is the same idea of dimensional increment. Our biology manages a stable 4D system and bounces up against five, now and then. Our biology is mostly 4 tuple relative prime, but we did get five fingers.


It is a tax dodge

Los Angeles is ground zero for the interpretation of California’s new charter schools law
With the upcoming school year already upended by the coronavirus pandemic, charter schools in Los Angeles are facing more uncertainty as they comply with a new state law.

California’s new law imposing greater restrictions on charter schools, which took effect last month, faces pushback from charter schools in the district that’s home to the largest number of charter schools in the state. At issue is a draft of a new 80-page policy detailing how Los Angeles Unified plans to implement the law. The policy will be in front of the school board for a vote on Tuesday.

Recent history has converted public schools into full service welfare agencies for kids.  The parents get booted from the process, but a chart school gets 53% funding and allows the parents back in.  That is a better deal than the public schools.

This is where the American and Franciscan ideals of Law conflict.  Call it the shadow education market emerging, but emerging faster due to covid.  Teachers unions trying o coral the parent/taxpayedr is not a pleasant battle.

Dodging sanctions in the shadow banks

Iran Amends Law to Allow Imports to Be Funded With Cryptocurrency

Requires a fair market in exchanging bitcoin for rial. Right now it is mostly local OTC bitcoin trading. How does Iran deal with Swift ledgers?
WASHINGTONToday, the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, identified the financial sector of the Iranian economy pursuant to section 1(a)(I) of Executive Order (E.O.) 13902, which authorizes Treasury to sanction any Iranian financial institution. Subsequently, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned eighteen major Iranian banks. As part of this action, OFAC sanctioned sixteen Iranian banks for operating in Iran’s financial sector and one bank for being owned or controlled by a sanctioned Iranian bank. Additionally, today’s action includes the designation of an Iranian military-affiliated bank under Treasury’s counter-proliferation authority. 

So Iran is having increased difficulty in getting Swift access. what about gold?

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Iran, Malaysia, Turkey and Qatar are considering trading among themselves in gold and through a barter system as a hedge against any future economic sanctions on them, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Saturday.

Gold is its own ledger

Iran's option is to hold secret Swift accounts, in under other central banks, from which it can deposit crypto sales.  That would be just about any central bank in the tax havens.  Iranian merchants become standard tax dodgers, ultimately supported in the shadow system.  Sanctions are treated as  taxes to be dodged. And  trade with China or Russia are exempt from sanctions.

The plot thickens:

Says the big bond manager:

So perhaps in hopes of attracting much needed attention to just how profound the monetary overhaul that is quietly taking place behind the scenes, Doubleline's resident digital currency expert, Bill Campbell has penned a follow up note to his original report, in which he explains in stark and vivid clarity what is about to happen. In a nutshell, "the world’s central banks and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) envision a network of multiple cross-border payment systems featuring direct bilateral exchanges in the world’s different currencies. Such a regime would discard the decades-long mediation through the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar." In short, central banks are preparing to launch cross-border payment systems which represent a new global order which poses a "major threat to the dollar and its status as the world’s reserve currency."

Losing reserve status forces the Fed to compete with crypto and give up on being the nations tax collector.  This is basically good, but it does come with a devaluation.



Second jolt of mass layoffs for Disney

It was less than a month ago that we reported Disney was laying off 28,000 employees as a result of continued economic pressure and lockdowns resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Now, "thousands of cast members" - which include workers in Entertainment, Transportation, Merchandise, and Food & Beverage - are being hit with "another wave of layoff emails", according to Walt Disney News Today.

“As heartbreaking as it is to take this action, this is the only feasible option we have in light of the prolonged impact of Covid-19 on our business,” Josh D’Amaro, the chairman of the parks division, said in a memo to workers in late September.

Except disrespectful Rednecks

The issue of diversity in economic discourse has occupied a prominent place over the past few years. The AEA has had long running initiatives to broaden the diversity of individuals in the economics professions, along gender, racial and ethnic lines, but it’s fair to say they have become much more visible as the debate has waxed: https://www.aeaweb.org/resources/best-practices. 

Sandboxers are excluded, sorry.  The AEA only allows Godotists, it is all about policy jobs one way or the other.

New Ottomans redeclaring war

Turkey threatens new military operation into Syria

All they do is redouble the size of their war declaring bureaucracy.

Treasury debt is the only taxable market for the Fed

Dudley: The Fed’s Done All It Can Do, Recovery Depends On Stimulus

Deficits are forced to pass through the Fed tax collection regime. The other debt markets can hide in the Shadow banking regime. But with equally offsetting tax collection in seigniorage, the effect of stimulus is likely net zero. The can will not kick, what Dudley really wants, as with Powell, is a new deal that puts inflation tax in the hands of Treasury where the Law assigned it. 

At this point most of the Fed members are in full blown Nixon Shock Revival, the Wile E Coyote moment.  They do not have the Overton window to speak clearly in this moment of hysteria. But, trust my decoder ring, these Fed members need another version of Nixon Shock but cannot say it.

If you follow our favorite banking  theorists we find they too are at a pause. They cannot connect dots without upsetting the mental state of the Fed board. It is not that the theory is incorrect, it is that their theory requires a consolidated step the crosses the Nixon Shock barrier. No one wants to be the heel for these mentally distressed bankers.

Our only hope for a non volatile generational overlap rests with small state governors, seriously, we may be doomed. I am looking to the governor of Wyoming because he seems to understand that sandbox technology is not waiting. 

GORDON: WYOMING APPROVES WORLD’S FIRST CRYPTOCURRENCY BANK CHARTER

So we have Mark Gordon of Wyoming and the governor of Arkansas both of whom seem to have brains and likely understand the issue. We need to push these to toward the meeting of the elders.

Oil at $35 range

 Our week of deflation continues and the futures now look neutral to negative. Powell's inflation window is stretching out to twenty years. The Swamp cannot do twenty years with this deflationary force.

No California pension bailout for Nancy

"...as the coronavirus surges and the stock market plummets, we are still awaiting the Trump Administration's promised responses on multiple items of critical importance."

But in Q1 she has to deal with the tax dodging scramble.  And  California may not hold until the covid problem is handled? We have the boat anchor problem.

Mohummerdudes

Woman decapitated as knife-wielding man kills three in French church

Saudi man arrested after stabbing guard at French Consulate

The Sunni rebellion is getting closer to Kushner and the latest version of Repub oil deals. 
If Trump is elected he will be inviting Saudi terrorist over here.  Shooting up Florida air bases and learning to fly suicide planes.  I think that is the other half of the usual repub oil deal, by now it must be a standard clause the repubs keep agreeing to.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

The sandbox liquifies T bills

Currency is more like “paper gold”, an asset with idiosyncratic uses that are almost unrelated to our financial system. Most currency is used for small transactions and tax evasion, areas in which T-bills are useless.

We can make any digital ledger adapt to Scott's definition of currency. 

This was all in response to Fama:

If you are an old Modigliani–Miller person the way I am, you think that’s a neutral activity.

Who is right or wrong? I am both right. Right because I can independently liquify  T-Bills if I have an open software port to that automated T bill market.  I am wrong because I am too friggen lazy. 

But the fintech pros are not nearly as lazy as I, and they have already deployed sufficient technology to liquifty the T bill market with short chain cash. I would no be surprised to hear that someone liquified the T bulls on the ethereum block chain already, in Defin.  It will almost certainly be done on version 2.0 with proof of stake.  In many hedge funds, T bills already are treated as digital cash within the fund.

Would a merchant accept T bills for payment? Sure would as their accountant would inspect the system and say, yea, this is reliable and puts the merchant funds right inside a money market.

The whole point of sandbox is to make Modigliani-Miller true for everything. I can liquify my home by assigning shares in an ethereum contract enforced block chain. I can make those shares trade as simply as a credit card transaction, and make the share contract legally enforceable.

Who else liquifies the one year T bill?


The Federal reserve, waddya know. 

And the Fed has been targeting the one year since 1982, all the hoopls about dual mandate is fake hoopla. The Fed has one mandate, liquify the one year to keep government funded.

NSA back doors, insiders and professional hackers

FBI warns ransomware assault threatens US healthcare system

There is always the threat that a certain price will cause an employee to temporarily open the NSA trap door. The NSA is not budging, the problem is not fixed until the NSA approves person secure biomertic identity.

Using commodity purchases to inflate

The Golden Solution to America’s Debt Crisis
The Fed can call a board meeting, vote on a new policy, walk outside and announce to the world that effective immediately, the price of gold is $5,000 per ounce.

They could make that new price stick by using the Treasury’s gold in Fort Knox and the major U.S. bank gold dealers to conduct “open market operations” in gold.

They will be a buyer if the price hits $4,950 per ounce or less and a seller if the price hits $5,050 per ounce or higher. They will print money when they buy and reduce the money supply when they sell via the banks.

But we don't want government fouling the precious metals market is the problem.  Perhaps the author can find something else for the Fed to buy? The Fed could just as easily delete debt in a direct inflation, if it can skirt past the Supremes.

Covid

 Market indices down 3%, still falling. This is about hospitals hitting capacity in some spots, a sudden stop along with another round of mass lay offs at Boeing. Mostly covid.

Chicago may not kick can

 They want to finance their old debt while taking on a bunch of new. They suffer a tight money market, they likely will suffer a down grade in the process.

And more widely, finance is underestimating the risk  f a crazed tax dodging scramble after the election gets new taxes. We may see more cities trip in Q1 until that gets sorted. Then we get the bailout negotiations and a three year reconstruction period for California.

Who is going to the meeting of the elders? The meeting is about how to do a better Nixon. Remember the main components, a new Fed contract, a devaluation contract, and a rebalance by revenue sharing.  Do not forget the overlap market on entitlements.We need brains from the governor's in that meeting.

We are reaching capacity n some covid wards so  more liquidity heads up the covid value chain..  None that really taxable yet.  So government stranded everywhere at once. The only easy investment fr government is covid supplies and research. Not of that posits a faircoin toss until Q2 to Q3. 

That is almost a year and a half of sudden stop in municipal budgets.   This triggers an unexpected wave of early retirement. And that compounds the pension systems. But all of these have no market until we bet the devaluation, as we need regulated banking to estimate other adjustments. We cannot restore regulated banking until Treasury get a double spending contract. And that means getting the governors together.

But we are under threat of a tax dodge scramble, and we would like to know the devaluation deal before beginning tax adjustments.  The best guess on that s a Half Nixon, likely a 2%/yr direct inflation. This will e the likely norm on renewal, a direct, and effective value added tax uniformly applied. Monetary neutrality requiring a corresponding  productivity growth.   That growth comes from regulated banking regaining market share and velocity  rises causing the inflation tax to be shared across deeper value chains at a quarter point, about equal to a fair monopoly tax.  

So the tax is fairly shared, and central banking money accurate to the renewal of contract years hence. That means we can reprice pensions without fake inflation adjustments. We have fair pricing on past defense budget losses.  Young kids get a fair pricing on future wages. And we can fair price revenue sharing.  The Senate and House free to change the revenue ratio and amount, up to the inflation tax boundary.  

The cost of covid comes down to early retirement. And that starts before everything else, like now. But future retirement payments may of by as much as 10%. At this point all pensions will be  subject to some renegotiation. Within the unions there are differences when jobs are cut.

The stock market settles as regulated banking regains share.  Companies ready for a universal 2% flat tax on inputs and outputs. chains.  

That tax rises and falls with the fortunes of small vs large states mostly.   On net it stays fairly even and thus favors small states. So large states on the ascent want the inflation tax dropped to lower bounds, and visa versa.  For example the large states dominant in one party and we get Obamacare. The house is pushing Obamacare, the small states scared out of their wits.  Large states  want lower inflation tax, this is a new price sensitive program. Small states want scale compensation, they do not bi mammoth hospitals.  On the margin the two parties forced into stability, keep the inflation tax at 2% and make very slight modifications to the split ratio to compensate scale. And that means watch the roll out of Obamacare with better precision by both chambers. Forces them into the side effect business before another set of boneheads arrive.

After the election the Split Government Party is popular

 We get a poll jump. Voter's regret. They do not get the pres they want, but could have at least hoped for a different House. But by the midterms the Split Body has no clout, no electoral college to throw. Voters need to get the hedge, blow the presidential vote to the Splits. That means voters get more than one vote for House. The opposing party favoring their pres over an opposing House.

The tenant hooker

 The landlord, generally male, knows the business cost of taking her services.   He has to deal with the woman on a non market avenue, mainly keep her producing her combination of rent and consistent services. The landlord is slumming it but keeping partition.

He over bids the gal. Look, he says, buying sex from a regular business contact leads to an expensive marriage. Tells her that right to her face, honest.  He quotes the cost (bout two months worth of her other valuables around the property). He is losing money on her market price, he would have to pay her triple to insure she has cash for a month of rent. But, in that argument,  he has put a futures price in buying the service. 

There will come a time when he has triple the spare cash, and it is bonus time anyway, Like getting caught at a drunken winter party.  You quoted a price, she says, this is the one time a year when you can afford it.  The landlord is stuck trying to be coy, but that only encourages her. She can;t be bought off, she is getting a bonus anyway and in the chaos can make the additional margin on service.

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Bailing out the cities

 The Fed can buy into the municipal bond industry, but it collects monopoly gains which remit to Treasury. Cities get taxed for what they borrow. There is at best marginal gain. So Congress allocates general funding for grants to the cities, and then the Fed buys into the treasury market, and regulated banking uses that as collateral. That is a tax on regulated banks.

The net result of the fed balance sheet is tax collection, and how many times must this be said.

Its a racket

 IMF, BIS, expanded mandates, climate and inequality

Legislature passes the regulation, industry incurs a bridge cost needing debt, the Fed gobble the debt and  remits gains to Treasury.  It is oddly, slightly legal.

Sell Hot Wallet services with short chain

 Like coin exchanges, what are they? Humongous hot wallets, they have accounts in the  all the ledgers. They can easily sell short chain services to groups wanting quick cash exchanges. So, the merchant group buys a block of time and count in the hot wallet. The exchange provides a twitter address for the short chain, time and count rules enforced.  It is no different then selling ad bandwidth on web searches, no different than running a URL service. But the network itself is not carrying risk, external ledgers are reset to balance in a guarantee. Registered users of short chain cash have to run standard miner code at the assigned address using the proven API. They carry their own scofflaw risk.

Short chain cash thus must be legal

 It is both, here now in the form of Defi, and likely the middle agreement in the battle over secure ID.

So the regulated banks want a part of it. They want a cut of the action by feeding the top of the contract chain. All that means is they sell licenses for register short chain address users. The contract are signature proven off the contract chain, and users of short chain cash get direct access to sharded cash chain via a single address. Banks are the new google search engines via government monopoly. How about that.

What keeps the short term chain hot wallet? The short chain miners, ultimately resolve back to the major ledgers, who holds the keys?  If merchants establish a short chain tweeter account,  then their is a secure personal ID in the cloud, or there is a government regulated bank or there is a MasterCharge.  One can imagine a secure computer, provably secure, deep in a cae, inaccessible to humans, and it independently registered on line with every monetary system in the world and kept its own keys, and had only one job, manage short chain cash with tweeter accounts. The the sacred URL server.

How old are your husbands?

Trump Tells Michigan Women: We’re Putting Your Husbands Back To Work

Covid is not affecting all husbands the same.

We might be telling women we are putting your husbands on early retirement. And that might be a very substantial cost and a side effect that reverberates.  It is either that or those older workers, and their owner employers,  may suddenly be on strike. As we saw in the three generation model, there is a sector imbalance caused because covid is much higher risk to older worker who already have to risk adjust.

Can short chain cash launder money?

 Like avoiding sales taxes, the technology effect is neutral. The contract first need the user to buy stock in a Twitter like address from a Swift account, so the forensic bots already can follow the smelly trail. The transaction costs of hunting us dodgers are the same as us tax dodgers hiding. 

This is Difin, by the way, mostly a distributed, mostly Btc, payment system on ethereum block chain. Some of these have a Swift connection at the key point, but these short chain contracts work great with the Btc chain. The folks at MIT could claim that short chain cash is sufficient, and secure personal ID can be delayed, and might have a point. I can see this as a middle ground in Due Process banking. At least it blocks the Fed taxes from hitting the little folk. Like my local grocer, all his customers have smart phone, there is no need for he and his customers o clog up the payment chain back to the bank. All it means is digitizing his paper bound pen and ink short chain he currently keeps.

How do central banks stop short term cash?

 They don't, they don't care because short term cash resolves quickly below the level at which they insure tax collection. But the banks squeal loudly because this is where they were collecting those taxes, ultimately, payment fees.

Short term, proof of stake, block chained ,cash contracts are here. All essentially a derivative of stable coin, and stable coin is enabled by public contract ledger. All parties with a stake can get the next accurate version of the ledger. The ledger resolves faster than any group of miners can hedge. But like real bearer cash with a small limit, short term cash still enables a raft of applications because transaction are automated making trivial transaction fees. 

What abut local taxes? They have the same efficiency, they can watch the short cash lenders for suspicious merchant activity. The bank will howl loudly and mightily, and this may trigger the start of sequence. This is a big check on who ends up paying the fed tax.

Setting up and using short term cahs

 My pedestrian district is the possible. One of the kids will mention it to the coffee shop owner.


What is short term cash? It is a the address of a short chain in which any merchant having a smart phone can register, and down load the app. The fix their 'tag' to Tower Cash. Then if any of the customers ask, Do you take short cash? The merchant says, Tower Cash is what we all use.  Regular customers automatically get onto tower Cash, and we save bundles, we drive every ATM machine out of this ares.

The merchant app is simple the miner code that checks the short term block chain for local traffic around the area. Does it right there in the merchant smart phone, down loads a copy of the latest master short chain as needed, but otherwise, the merchant is his own trusted miner, need only update the short chain to the extent  there is scofflaw fear in the air.

Sort of a tweeter system for short cash of any type. Once merchant get on the short cash, they would just as easily accept bitcoin or francs, as long as it has standard ledger protocol supported by short cash API. The merchants wouldn't care, their accountant or other adviser looked  at the exchange process and labeled them about as fair as possible. The contract are built into the short ledger and cannot be fold in proof of stake.

Just put the MasterCharge payment algorithm on ethereum contract

 As simple as that.

The MasterCharge system creates a key word for the transaction which is a valid claim on Master Charge for a short period.  The keyword is short chain cash. As long as all participants utilize the MasterCharge payment algorithm, they can pass it around, as a cash redeemable on the Swift ledger.

We add making change to the payment algorithm. We make the keyword ledger viewable by all, and block chained with customer pass codes. And, it resolves, certainly. In other words, no one is using these stupid keys to store value, it is in fact what the SEC calls it, a security, a pure equity, as pure as a master charge payment algorithm can make it. 

Making short chain simply means miners agree on payment termination, return to a fund to public ledger and erase the chain on count or time limit.

So lets start a company

 We can call it Cash.

Its product is its own stock.

It capital consists of a series of ethereum contracts for swapping accounts on a block chain.

Its entire function is restricted to putting the income from any stock sale onto the public short term chains as specified in the ethereum proof of stake rules.

It is leagaly bound, but otherwise i do not think there is anything to add, except it must include contracts for traditional scofflaw chaser.

This is simply the equivalent of a very useful search script, and would become widely popular and an astounding money saver. Sort of the universal payment system is really just a universal API for the various ledgers. A finite block chain queuing switch. 

Take Btc. Someone has a clever idea, turn it into short chain cash. They buy stock in Cash for bitcoin, and the hot bitcoin wallet is managed by the standard rules of ledgers, but otherwise is available for short term digital cash via any trusted vendor. So, sure, everyone would accept this, this is nearly perfect cash.  Essentially the customer is transferring bits of Cash stock to merchant, but the merchant know a bunch of accountants who have looked at the payment contracts and pronounced them solid and honest and no ore risky then credit cards.  Most of these ledger contracts on trusted ethereum respositories woll be well proven, legally binding, standard accounting.

Making short chain cash from Chinese digital currency

 The main point is to lock up a regulated digital account and trade its value on a short chain anonymous proof of stake ledger. How can an individual takeios digital Yuan account and make chairt chain anonymous cash? Buy shares in a reputable accounting firm. Take the cash risk based on their reputation in the industry.  Take Libra, instead of money make it a share.  Libra, using its own Chinese account will put your money on the short chain public ledger, under time and count limits.  You have the key, and Libra has the trusted miners. You are free to spend, and the ledger system is likely to be as trusted and popular as a credits card, just as fast.  And you avoid taxes from the people Republic.

The Libra short block chain can mix currencies, easy enough. There is a potential scofflaw problem within the block, sure, but minimized easily.  In fact, one can do this, and they do do this, today using the Ethereum contract chain.  But we can do this very efficiently with proof of stack and specially built local chain. The chain always resolves back to the original public ledger, there are never long held accounts. And it is all proof of stake, so you have very few miners jumping on the chain and the chain search length is short. This is as close as we get to pure cash without Smart Cart, but t is as good as anything out there and works with any digital ledger system.

And even better. This method should connect right in to existing terminal systems. If it can reach master charge then it can reach a network of trusted accounting firms. For example, around here I could market Tower dollars to the local pedestrian system where all the kids have handhelds. Local merchant would soon learn that this clears back onto the local bank ledger with no greater scofflaw risk. So they would all take it on certification from the local accountant reads the short cash edger. The merchants could offer it back to customers for debit, laundering it.  Any of the local who spend it would be saving oodles on Fed taxes and payment fees. This model is the most liquid stable coin technology around, and scaleable and duplicateable.

It is a simple ethereum ledger contract, not even a complete monetary system. A few simple rules about handing the various public ledgers, make short term cash out of any publicly accessable ledger.

The New Ottomans and the Syrian Mohummerdudes

How Turkey manufactured a 'crisis' with France over 'cartoons'

They are planning to behead us all. This is why I support Bashar and the All Righties.

The lower the yield the higher the taxes

Record $54 Billion In 2Y Paper Sold At Second Lowest Yield On Record
The core "money helicopter" trend remains intact: the larger the auction the lower the yield

Monopoly effect.  The Fed is grabbing tax share, making us pay for all the crap we bought. We do not want to pay for all that crap, most of the kids never voted for that crap.   

Your regulated banks are taxing their own customers without full representation via fiat from the Reserve Board. They have some power to do that, but are starting to exceed that bounds quite a bit. It comes to a head, we get a meeting of the elders.

Appealing to the Ghost and Goblin crew

Seeking power in Jesus’ name: Trump sparks a rise of Patriot Churches

That crowd will pack into a church, praise Trump, and be drinking Jonestown Kool Aid. They will need a couple of mass shootings to have a real party.

Low rates, tight banking

A Debt Crisis Is Not Imminent

But absolute debt levels are only part of the story. We must also – and more importantly – consider borrowers’ ability to repay. Today, unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus is keeping the liquidity tap open for firms through bond markets and bank loans. Borrowing costs are very favorable, and appear likely to remain so for a long time: we expect benchmark interest rates to remain historically low into 2023. Meanwhile, credit spreads have tightened from their March peak; as it stands, they are more sensitive to business-specific risks than market risks, particularly for the lowest-quality borrowers.

The post worried abut corporate defaults. I worry about a banking crisis.

There is no tap for liquidity, liquidity are coin tosses, the true conserved quantity.  The liquidity is not going to regulated banks and the result is unstable tax collection.  The regulated banking market shrinks in favor of a greatly expanding shadow banking system.  Congress runs out of liquidity and Congress will get sudden stops, for good or ill. 

The result is very specific, a mammoth tax dodging scramble in Q1 which could very well result in a lengthy sudden stop in Congress. We have history. We will be unprepared and get another severe dose of Nixon Shock Syndrome, and that lasts a lifetime. Doing the Full Nixon now would be a disaster, we need to shoot for the Half Nixon.

Tie Vote is below one percent

 I consider the Tie Vote in electoral forecasts to be a proxy for support of the Split Government party.

Tie Vote is now running about a half point, it seems, getting on the board about every other day. But for the Split government party that might mean two electoral votes which cause a net split between Trump and Biden of four points, really shifting the debate a notch.

If the Split Government polled a solid 2%, we would really have a race, that 2% gets almost twice its weight in vote because it can change sides after the election results. There is easily about 2% of us who are members of the Anarchist Party.  We need to get a candidate name, pull it out from party members at random. Our selected candidate cannot win, and the electors are taken from the aggregate or party members and very likely to throw the election. This is almost a sure thing.  


There is no easy answer on election rules

This Time, Roberts Sides with Conservatives to Blunt Election-Rule Tinkering 
That is one takeaway from the Supreme Court’s ruling Monday night, rendered as Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination was being approved by the Senate. In a 5–3 decision, the Court declined to endorse a federal district judge’s rewrite of Wisconsin State election law. This time, the chief justice joined the Court’s four conservative justices — Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh — leaving the three liberals in the minority, with Justice Elena Kagan’s dissent joined by Justices Stephen Breyer and Sonia Sotomayor).

Enforcement of Due Process in election rules means navigating the seam of States Rights.  In the one case it was non-legislative executive action, in the latter case the legislature specifically prohibited lait mailed ballots.

The fault is in the constitution, this is an area of ambiguity, especially after the Civil War amendments. Let the Supremes fudge it, shrug and go on.

What if she has one of those Catholic apparitions in chambers?

Murkowski predicts Barrett won't overturn Roe v. Wade

She is an ardent Catholic and the menagerie of weird creatures that might appear at any time is large. We have no idea what one of these creatures might convince  the delusional woman.


Here, this one.  OK, she has the old fetus case coming up in court, she is on the bench, feels suddenly faint, like women get,  and this thing appears, floating up to heaven.

For the apoplectic

Monday, October 26, 2020

Like the overlapping generations model

We can do a good job with three portfolios, youngsters, parents and gramps. 

Liquidity, other wise known as coin tosses, are allocated across the three uncertain distributions such that, in aggregate, they are mostly a centered Gaussian, all transactions are maximally separated. This is the Markov 3-tuple,  a portfolio balancing problem.

If it works then there exists a multi-price level auction between gramps and parents. It must be the case that each person goes to auction twice a generation, flip flopping positions.

A model can be maintained measuring demographic ratios; from sequence to sequence.  Then one can compute relative interest charges needed to maintain the fairness of each distribution. Gains when the particular distribution is noticably a weighted coin toss. And the opposite, an option price.  This is a portfolio problem, the problem of a manager limited to sequential bets for the client across three complete  sectors. That is, there is a known boundary condition and the sectors cover the whole bounded region. 

There should be a Lie graph paper for finance. The finance engineer can plot the relative binomials as rotations.

Revenue sharing is another hidden Markov.  

The executive branch is effectively managed by the legislature, via power of the purse. So, the issue remains the relative cost benefit of any giving program across the senate vs the house. But they are both closed, there is no great western expansion. Thre senat is a heavily weighted coin, and needs to hedge across some distance. The house shares the hedge during negotiations. The effect is to balance their portfolios. The negotiations will include  a reserve, which they split mostly evenly. This makes the hedging for districts proportional to state hedging, estimates that dead weight, and allows them to manage the executive more accurately. I works because the revenue sharing agreement is a very easily balanced market, each the the trader groups sets fixed, there is no worry about risk equalization. Almost as if the founder knew about this solution ever since Hamilton absorbed their debts..

Partition by state

We know a large middle of the states are neutral to revenue sharing. The last bid taken is the smallest state against the most isolated district. That would be me vs some lady in Vermont. The two of us, equally stuck for the cost of some mammoth hospital somewhere else. We are equally populated, within error, and have about the same internal economies of scale. We will pick he nearest integer we can get, then asymmetrically  split the difference to keep it fair. No one is going to pay for some useless hospital within our boundaries.

Joe the creep photos

 

Unless you are a partisan, the only photos that matter are the one where Joe is sneaking up behind some woman or little girl. 

The gals always have the same look, 'No not the creep', it is quite embarrassing to get a look down from old Joe.

Joe is going to be a lot of fun, a mix of dementia and childhood perversion.


This is why the Patriotic Anarchists of American are forming the Split Government party. We will follow the Redneck school of economics, almost contained chaos. We will have our own prima donnas at Redneck U, getting Nobel bananas for  basketball futures market.

A standard S/L is already an NGDP predictor

Hypermind has two new NGDP prediction markets up and running, one covering 2020:Q4 to 2021:Q4, and one covering 2021:Q4 to 2022:Q4.
It’s early, and I don’t believe there’s been much trading, but so far the predicted growth rates are rather low (below 4%.)

What is an NGDP predictor? 

If S/L were un hedgeable then the NGDP predictor is white noise. In our case, NGDP predictors measure the distortion from central bank S/L deployment.  So if your central bank is distortionary then the solution to an NGDP predictor is a Black Sholes, which has Greek coefficients for the distortions. That Black Sholes, in current central banking will just predict regularly scheduled recessions. In other words, it will determine what ever coefficient drives the distortion.

This is not to deny the utility of an NGDP predictor, because we do have and intend to keep a distortionary central bank.  But it illustrates that we are better off making 15 year NGDP predictions via a negotiated Treasury inflation.  That allows the central bank to spread the distortions over a longer, but semi-repeatable period. We can plan around the distortions for longer term.

Russia is none too happy with the New Ottoman Empire

Russian Airstrikes Obliterate Turkish-Backed 'Rebel' Camp In Idlib, Killing Over 60

 

Good idea

Seattle company says its spray treatment could make cloth masks more effective against COVID-19

Companies are thinking outside the box on covid.

Nice work

It took two years of infrastructure building but on Sept. 16 the Wyoming Division of Banking finally landed a prominent pioneer.

That’s when Kraken Financial became the first entity to receive a special purpose depository institution (SPDI) charter in the Cowboy State, giving the cryptocurrency industry insight into roughly how long it takes to become a bank. It’s also the first newly chartered (de novo) bank the state has approved since 2006.

While Kraken Financial still has some hoops to jump through before it has a certificate of authority to operate, Wyoming is running to keep its lead in the digital asset space. And it’s a priority shared by the state’s top elected official, Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon.

Now, compare this to the governor of South Dakota who plans to carve a stature of Trump into a mountain

‘A Good Idea To Me!’: Trump Denies Asking South Dakota Governor To Add Him To Mount Rushmore

This is Apples to Oranges. we can't have intelligent rule unless all small states get a clue. We intend to punish Wyoming for the bonehead governor in South Dakota. Collective punishment, we do not have a choice.

She thinks the Swamp has a steering wheel

Ocasio-Cortez: 'Plenty of people without college degrees could run this country better than Trump'

No one is expecting real brains from the gal. Her job is to keep the humor flowing.

Liker the Turks did to the Armenians, and are doing it again as a matter of fact.

Erdogan: Macron Needs A “Mental Check” For “Lynch[Ing]” Muslims Like Europe Did To Jews

The New Ottoman Empire is not very popular.

Yes, the Post Nixon Shock Syndrome, thanks for the confirmation

ABSTRACT We show that personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components.

Since 1951, yes. But we have standardized the units for this.

The standard American Devaluation cycle is called the Nixon. The standard mental disease from a Nixon is the Nixon Post Shock Syndrome. Powell and Bernanke suffer the disease. The hysteria results in a 'This Time is different' fantasy, characterized by boneheads at MIT in the 70s. For example, Bernanke's famous,'We won't make that mistake again'. Or Powell poutings because Congress will not devalue.

So indeed, here at the anarchist site we have already worked these issues out and have perfectly good units. The solution is part of the Nixon cycle. It is revenue sharing coordinated with intelligent default. But we think this is too difficult for simple minded economists and I expect a Full Nixon, perhaps the catastrophic Double Nixon.   We should be a little braver and do the Half Nixon.

Yes, you can change your vote with the Split Government Party

"Can I Change My Vote": Voter's Remorse Sets In As Searches For Do-Over Spike

As the political leader of Anarchism USA, may I promote the Split Government party. 

The spit government party will throw the presidential election to the party opposite the House controlled party.  We can do this because the electoral college happens after we know the outcome of House races. So, effectively the Anarchists can generate 1.5 votes per ballot cast. A remarkable feat.

The policy choice is earmarks vs reveneu sharing, Glen Hubbard

Recent decades have continued to witness gains for the American economy — from new ideas, openness to trade, and technological advance. As they have since the Industrial Revolution, these gains reflect the upside of disruption and change. But there are downsides, too. These downsides have transformed our politics in recent years, and the economic disaster that has accompanied the coronavirus pandemic has only magnified them. Yet economists and defenders of markets have too often sought to dismiss these downsides or failed to appreciate their scope and character.

Read the fist two paragraphs and figured this was another philosopher. 

We have been here many times before, Glen Hubbard. What did we try after the last Nixon devaluation? We tried revenue sharing. Read a little history.  That worked for a while, then Reagan, Hubbard and a bunch of other idiots went Godotist and screwed it all up for forty years.

It is provable, repeatable and a story as old as the founding; the Senate/House mismatch. The denialism  about this mismatch is Hubbard, all by himself. I suspect that if we invented the standard unit of denialism it would be Glen Hubbard.

Deflation week

 Oil in the $38 range. We have no inflation this week, instead we are looking at a 3% deflation.  It comes and goes, not a trend but asynchronous price adjustment such that we more deflation spikes than inflation spikes.

Other News:

Bond defaults deliver 99% losses in new era of U.S. bankruptcies

Bankruptcies.

Exercising a little free market

Three CalPERS health plans are in a ‘death spiral.’ Saving them could involve price hikes
Healthier CalPERS members are leaving the plans for cheaper options

The article is blocked for me, but I suspect the last reform added some individual payments. 

A mental issue with the Ghost and Goblin crew?

The Surprising Reason We’re Fighting Over the Supreme Court — and How to Fix It

This is mostly traditional National Review reader discovering the repub party is about small states getting earmarks and perpetual war declarations. Their readers have abandoned the conservatives leaving National Review with a philosophy based on Halloween every day.

 

The Fed taxes the regulated S/L industry

In the process, the Fed has indirectly provided support to house prices and to the vital home construction business by forcing down mortgage interest rates to all-time lows of about 3%. Given that home equity is a major asset for many middle-class Americans, supporting home prices is especially important. As is supporting the home construction industry, which is a major source of blue-collar jobs.

But if you dig deeper, you’ll see that the Fed is unintentionally worsening economic inequality by providing the most help to Americans who are least in need of it. And it’s also putting stress on the middle class’ most important asset: retirement benefits.

Higher stock prices are great for people (including me) who own a lot of stocks, but those people are primarily the top 10% of the country, in terms of wealth. According to Fed statistics, more than half of stocks — 52% — are owned by the wealthiest 1% of Americans, and 88% are owned by the top 10%.

To show you a different aspect of helping the upper class but not the working class, the Fed’s securities purchases include buying debt issued by firms that are laying off workers while paying substantial dividends to shareholders. And for some imprudent or troubled corporate borrowers, the Fed’s moves have been hugely helpful.

Intruding wealth distorted taxes under the power of coinage? 

I think this exceeds the power of taxation assigned to the legislature.  What we suffer is the traditional 'No taxation without representation' rebellion. Both Antificants and Alt-R are really rebelling against the same effect, in different ways.