Is California going to default this budget cycle?

Bob Moris at IVN says probably:

Schwarzenegger said eight years ago, the state was paying CalPERS $150 million a year. Now it’s over $6 billion a year. This is not sustainable, and he said major pension reform must be part of the new budget or he won’t sign it. This is probably while CalPERS flinched, temporarily forgoing $600 million in hopes of fending off pension reform.

Welfare is where the most drastic cuts will occur. The current plan is to completely eliminate the CalWORKs welfare-to-work program. If CalWORKs is killed, then California will become the only state without a welfare-to-work program, forcing many to quit jobs because they would no longer have child-care subsidies, as well as eliminating jobs for state workers who run the program.

California has reached the point where all parties feel better off with a default.