Monday, July 18, 2016

Immigration waves are too volatile

  • For the best example of the non-compute intractability of this problem, consider
    Nigeria. It had 21 million people when I was born and now has 187 million. In a
    recent poll, 40% of Nigerians (75 million) said they would like to emigrate, mostly to the UK (population 64 million). Difficult. But the official UN estimate for Nigeria’s population in 2100 is over 800 million! (They still have a fertility rate of six children per woman.) Without discussing the likelihood of ever reaching 800 million, I suspect you will understand the problem at hand. Impossible.
Impossible is the correct  term.  Merkel's idea is that all 60 million immigrants move to France.

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