Friday, September 8, 2017

Helping Lael Brainard understand inflation

She is a fed official and thinks inflation has been lower for ten years.  No, it has been dropping for forty years\.

Looking at this chart we can see why.  When the implicit deflator hits 2.5%, we crash.  That would be the last four recessions, actually, the inflation bulge then the crash.

So, according to this chart we can say without 85%  probability, if Lael got her wish on inflation we would be in recession.

But wait, you say.  Lael is talking about fake inflation, the target not the reality.  Unfortunately we avoid recessions if we can, really, so we ignore the Fed target and look at real inflation, keeping it low.

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