You had to do mean, variance and skew, Paul

Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On? 

What’s bad for America is sometimes good for the market.

What, after all, is the main alternative to investing in stocks? Buying bonds. Yet these days bonds offer incredibly low returns. The interest rate on 10-year U.S. government bonds is only 0.6 percent, down from more than 3 percent in late 2018. If you want bonds that are protected against future inflation, their yield is minus half a percent.

So buying stock in companies that are still profitable despite the Covid-19 recession looks pretty attractive.

And why are interest rates so low? Because the bond market expects the economy to be depressed for years to come, and believes that the Federal Reserve will continue pursuing easy-money policies for the foreseeable future. As I said, there’s a sense in which stocks are strong precisely because the real economy is weak.
Now, one question you might ask is why, if economic weakness is if anything good for stocks, the market briefly plunged earlier this year. The answer is that for a few weeks in March the world teetered on the edge of a 2008-type financial crisis, which caused investors to flee everything with the slightest hint of risk.

Not only did the price weighted stock index rise, on panic bond buying, but it also shifted left and got a narrower spread. Fewer large companies are getting the dough, mainly because large companies make the longer term bets.

But the central question is, the large corporates get more liquidity, who loses it since liquidity cannot be conjured? Sales taxes way down, the bread and butter of local municipalities.  Large banks got bigger, we are shutting down retail banking, the fees to high.

So the market is telling us something, telling us that local municipalities, NY and Cal, are in big trouble and investors want the big corporates to guard their money while the fur starts to fly. Who knows how this turns out?

I wondered why our government report is slow getting out

"Remdesivir Is Probably Worthless" - A Trauma Surgeon Exposes "Drug Company's Shenanigans"

What if we find all the Remdesivir hoopla was a Trump scam? Is Fauci scamming us?

Let us read the report summary:

Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059).

From a controlled trial involving 1063 patients, which began on February 21. Begin on Fed 21? I thought we did nothing until March. But this study claims to be the first in the USA where as the previous was China.  We shall see.

From Poisson to Markov

My plot is to substitute Pr(X=k) exactly inot the Markov equation.  Then collect the k! for all three, as well as the lambdas.  Then I find that the terms are met as long as relationship with Log lamdas and k are met to within an integer, I quantize it and prove there is only one set of integer solutions. The constraint is reduced to finding the Markov 'counters' that can replace the Poisson.

One of those, 'Someday', while I hope a young mathematician beats me to it. I am lazy.

First we put the finite N back in Markov

xyz must be the probability that all counters are at one.  For the case of the triple 1,2,5; gthat probability is 1/2 & 1/3 & 1/5, or one out of the n factorial paths. He mupltiplied by N! ^2 and removed N from both sides.

So we reinsert N, and let it go to infinity to get Poisson. We want to see what happens when N tends toward the finite.

So, for each of the factorial error values, 2/3 of the paths were thinned.The counter bump after each valid error update.

So my plot.

Let a,b,c be the Poisson rates and I want the probabilities, or counts, in which k=1, the number error upsaets pending is one, for all three together versus each twice at a time. I get a very simply equation, my only transcendental is an exponent is, Euler. But I am flooring the equation to rational fractions, and need only know the natural exponent to the nearest one/half. I end up with a second degree equation in a,b,c which should be Markov again.   How does that help? Not sure yet, just a proof a different algorithm exists.

But this does let me run a flat earth version of Markov.  One neat thing I can do is set the highest counter to some value, then simplify the condition that k=1. At that point the lowest rate will be either zero, od some positive number, thus proving there is a Markov triplre for any integer c in:(a,b,c) Doing so might get me a prize, but it is still work.

Your priors vs the other priors

The Self-Inflicted Derangement Of The Conservative Intellectuals

The delusions are on both sides. The dimwitted are the one who think  the two party system can answer the call, so they  hop from side to side.

McConnell is wrong

McConnell indicated last week that while Republicans were interested in helping states “with anything related to the coronavirus,” they were “not interested in revenue replacement.”

Read the article.. Some Senators are getting tiny memories of revenue sharing, it worked at the time.  McConnell has Post Nixon Shock syndrome, maybe not curable.   Powell has the syndrome, as does Bernanke.

From a man who gave up his own grandchild?

Biden declares sexual assault ‘never, never happened’

What's the problem? You bungled once, we do not care that much.

I am more worried about a man who goes to the White House and doesn't let his grandson toddler run around and break stuff. What kind of friggen lesson does that teach? Are you the next Godot?

You are, Joe, the next in a long line of dirty old men. All we need is for your to be slightly less dirty than any of the precious bunch. Screw the Godoters, they are not invited to meet up.

The Democrats are in the House, Trumpster

President Donald Trump said he is “in no rush” to provide federal assistance to states that are short of money because of the coronavirus, and said Democrats would have to make concessions if they want grants for state governments.


“If they do it, they’re going to have to give us a lot,” Trump said in a podcast interview with conservative commentator Dan Bongino that aired Friday.


The National Governors Association, chaired by Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan, has called on Congress to allocate an additional $500 billion in funding for state shortfalls.

He has the ball backwards. The senators want money for their state capitals. The House wants money for the municipalities.  Trump has mixed accounts before finding the congestion point.

According to the current procedure, the Senate is in demand for earmarks, they are mixing accounts before the deal is done. The Senate earmarks and House priors  are the only account observed by the generally corrupt Swamp.

I am trying to get them to look back at the revenue sharing agreement of the 70s, but they all seem too corrupted to do that, except Nancy, I can tell she has a clue.  Trump is clueless, his sense of history is zip, can't do it.  We need someone in the Senate with a clue about recent history. Once we have a Senator with a clue, we can start talking.

We have lost most of our substitute policy options, we are strictly limited to redoing most of the Nixon sequence in nearly the same order as the reverse paths are erasing under the tremendous corruption in the Swamp. Getting these swampsters to identify a solution while facing the next Nixon shock is a nightmare.

Restrictions on the Markov triples

(x^2 +y^2 +z^2) = 3*(xyz)

This is a measure space composed of three relative primes. Let us lose some generality by selecting 1,2,5; three relative prime number.

Divide by N, and we see that these are the integer fraction counts with which these counters have this state over the whole colored beach ball.

Ignore the rules a moment and we can see that the counters at 1,1,1 have three possible next states.  Each of these states requires at least  two pending in one of the counters.

Then let us eliminate some possible.  The ones  counter never has two pending before it emits a color. The to counter has one possible moment for two pending, but the fives count has two. That counter has the possible states: 0,1,2,3 but then it must roll over on the next count.  the states with 2 or 3 pending updates merge since the 3 count includes the 2 count. So we have two possible states of the five counter which meets the conditions.

That conic, with x,y,z fixed, describes all, finite  states of the round off errors each axis. The actual space is allocated, but never actually met. 1,1,1 cannot occur look at the previous states, to be the case, the previous counter must have colored the previous button three times. No two counter can roll over at once. Every counter get a new update request per step.

Because of path merging, there are multiple paths that can count an error of 1,1,1 in the three counters.  Half of the two counter paths generate fifteen out of the thirty combinations, but they merge with the 1/3 counter, both are multiple of the factorial count. Commutative property holds since we are counting almost independent arrivals. Hence the error value is not unique and arrivals are not independent. By contradiction, there must be coloring prior in the sequence which cancel those paths.

The general proof on these things should be to treat those counters as Poisson queues and treat the Markov equation as a probability statement.  Then let N get smaller (from infinity) and some constant N keeps that probability equation within an integer. This is the condition that -iLog(i) for all messages in a Shannon channel be within one.

Cytokines are cell separators

The pit boss at work.

If you are loaded up with anti-body for the previous common cold, then cytokines should resist another anti body for another coronas. If you survived this corona, you have not have enough corona capacity left of the other common cold viruses. You might end up with a chronic condition for a few years. Eventually your corona antibodies will wear.  Kind of a tricky business.

It is sandbox.  Let transaction costs go to zero, find the congested channel, identify the pit boss.  We have a Huffman encoded antibody system with unstable N.  The corona family ios only 200 years, and we do not yet have the antibody channel capacity.

So we need a vaccine common to the whole family, ultimately. The docs have to find the common ancestor genes and make a vaccine against that. But is we could inject tailored antibodies for just this versions we would improve the situation, likely, with side effects.

The side effects are showing up in China. The corona-19 virus works but likely wiped out a bunch of older corona antibodies causing a variety of smaller infections.

Hos does Nancy intend to make the split

How does she determine how much a state gets?

She cannot split the money by population, that  triggers the avalanche of earmarks. The guvs will use two accounts, the amount they get for being a state, and the amount they get for having people. The risk for Guvs is that this revenue sharing will not last, and might be followed by Fed regime change.