Right logic, wrong semantics

Sinema defends filibuster, sparking progressive fury

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) is sparking a new round of progressive fury with her defense this week of the legislative filibuster.

Sinema, speaking to reporters alongside GOP Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) in Arizona, indicated that she hadn't shifted from her opposition to changing the Senate's rules, arguing that it "protects the democracy of our nation rather than allowing our country to ricochet wildly every two to four years."

Everything correct except we are not a democracy, that is the catch, we are a republic.  Yes government swings and cause recessionary cycles, usually about every eight years. 

Yet another NSA headache

Drug cartels attack enemies and spread terror with weaponized drones in US, Mexico

The cops need to shoot down the unidentified drones, but the NSA is making secure identification illegal. The NSA will be in crisis soon.

Oil nears 70, ten year yield below 1.6, and dollar stable but down?

 The system is not working the same as it was a year ago. $70 is attracting OPEC supply increases. Gas prices on the consumer will generate resistance to growth. 

We are rebuilding supply chains and higher oil prices hinders the effort as import prices rise. The economy is never settled.

Retirement stampede hits two tiered labor reform

Earlier this year, the California State Teachers Retirement System issued an ominous statement: teacher retirements in California are projected to hit nearly record-breaking heights in 2021.

The statement, which came in the form of a February blog post, said that the numbers will be almost as bad as the year after the Great Recession when more than 16,000 teachers retired.

While short term effects are being felt in some areas, in many school districts the tsunami of retirements is barely registering as a ripple. While interviews with administrators, teachers, and union leaders do not paint a rosy picture of the situation, neither is it expected to be crippling.

Author thinks we will live through it.  Sacramento will step in, again, for partial funding.

The labor reform of Jerry Brown left Boomers getting the break and costs dumped on young teachers. That reform will not hold and we will need Sacramento funds.

Mexican standoff

Climate advocates in the Senate are worried about missing what they see as a once-in-a-generation chance to shift the nation’s spending priorities to clean energy, warning they’re prepared to hold up any infrastructure package that doesn’t deliver on that front.

We also have oil senators. 

I remember you were quite the bonehead

'If this thing qualifies, I'm toast': An oral history of the Gray Davis recall in California

The gubinator was no better. California is sort of doomed, Jerry was the only one who could hold it together.

Handing the job to Kamala is equivalent to burying the problem

 Biden prioritizes US voting rights law as restrictions mount

Biden puts Harris in charge of efforts to protect voting rights

I think we understand the strategy.

Nominal vs real in government interest rate

 

What is the real return from government debt? Long term view is tax income vs debt costs. It is up and down, up and down. The chart compares the yearly yield cost  on all debt,  with yearly yield on tax receipts.  My eyeball observaion tells me government is losing on debt. 

And we have to treat seigniorage taxes as an interest rate payment, so the blue line is actually scaled up a fourth after the 2008 crash. That drop in the blue just after the crash is the Fed taking up tax collection duties.

Econs often tell you the instantaneous comparison with the current rate vs current consumer inflation, or five year forward on consumer inflation.  Government does not shop at Walmart much and the comparison is a bad idea. Whatever gains the government makes during expansions always seem to be lost during recessions. 

Also note that the bond market generally watches total debt costs vs current ten year rte, keeping those two in line.  The key drive in all this is disinflation, the economy is much better at pricing.

That explains the Flynn coup attempt

Trump is telling people he thinks he'll be 'reinstated' as president in August, according to a report

Michael Flynn calls off planned mass shooting

"Let Me Be Very Clear": Michael Flynn Sets Record Straight On 'Coup' Comment

If thee ever was a cause to cur defense spending, this nut case is it. 

Never follow these boneheads to war. I think American rice farmers should build bunkers as long as we have these nutcase generals.

There is another bonehead out there, Oliver North. But he is 77, likely too old to plot with Flynn.