Felix Salmon lives there in the Village, which is just off of 2nd Street. So, he wonders, how we gonna fill those store fronts. A lot become engineering labs as the city moves to be the defining technology of the transportation age. A lot become mass, specialty traders, of various volumes; from grocery repackaging to food prep to specialty delivery vehicles. All taking part in or benefiting from the synchronization of 2nd Ave traffic.
People will move around more often, being cargo themselves. So we begin a zero inventory process, any good meeting any person any time any place. Information networks become aligned with transportation networks. NYC transaction costs drop by a factor of eight, likely.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Zero Hedge and the Oil to Ten Year correlation
Zero Hedge commented on the correlation between the yield steepness and the price of oil. I have to re-read Zero Hedge twice, I am on my first run.
Anyway, this is how I think QM Theory should interpret the correlation. Oil becamse suddenly constrained, and in response, the oil delivery queue is trying to reduce rank, shorten the delivery steps and get oil out there with fewer transactions. The rest of the economy is being dragged into small rank because oil is more constrained than usual.
Rank reduction of the multi-stage delivery queues is deflation, the the money distribution queue follows suit, partly, it wants to deflate.
The Ten year problem arises because our transportation retooling cycle is ten years. So Ten year plans become very uncertain, hence the jump in the yield curve at Ten Years. We have volatility on the ten year transportation retooling plans.
We solve the problem by commercialize more traffic, remove the consumer from the necessity of owning transportation. This is not a suprise, because the sudden constraints on energy were caused by an important and wealthy consumer group trying to commercialize personal freight, mainly by Internet shopping and UPS/FedEx. That process pulled the transportation industry off equilibrium.
Anyway, this is how I think QM Theory should interpret the correlation. Oil becamse suddenly constrained, and in response, the oil delivery queue is trying to reduce rank, shorten the delivery steps and get oil out there with fewer transactions. The rest of the economy is being dragged into small rank because oil is more constrained than usual.
Rank reduction of the multi-stage delivery queues is deflation, the the money distribution queue follows suit, partly, it wants to deflate.
The Ten year problem arises because our transportation retooling cycle is ten years. So Ten year plans become very uncertain, hence the jump in the yield curve at Ten Years. We have volatility on the ten year transportation retooling plans.
We solve the problem by commercialize more traffic, remove the consumer from the necessity of owning transportation. This is not a suprise, because the sudden constraints on energy were caused by an important and wealthy consumer group trying to commercialize personal freight, mainly by Internet shopping and UPS/FedEx. That process pulled the transportation industry off equilibrium.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Who predicted the crash?
The dotcom bubble predicted it. The dotcom bubble told us that online Internet shopping could not be supported until the home gained better ability to manage inventory. The house tried to increase inventory management, but told us that it could not without greater transportation utility. The transportation bubble told us is cannot increase utility until energy became elastic. The energy bubble said had a limited liquidity(linear range) and said synchronize traffic. Hence, the intelligent transportation bubble.
Fixing the NYC Second Ave traffic gridlock
Been to NYC once, don't remember Second Ave. But, here is the traffic fix.
Adopt a semi-automated BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) with articulated bus configurations of two, four, and six cars. Take two lanes of Second Ave and allow four virtual BRT lanes with BRT systems going in both directions.
BRT is control by wire so the driver has control points at either end and the configuration never needs a U turn. The wheels use optical sensors and follow accurately paint lane markers, simulating the rail track. The driver yields to automated lane following sometimes, and to manual control at others.
Run these up and down Second Ave, the system computing the passing arrangement for arbitrary BRT units. Mix local, medium, and express. Allow express buses on Second Ave to run at 70 MPH on stretches.
They all communicate and have the usual digital assist all around.
Advantages: Zero street infrastructure costs. All technology assist from silicon intelligence, about four times the capacity in passenger mile per unit time as subway.
Adopt a semi-automated BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) with articulated bus configurations of two, four, and six cars. Take two lanes of Second Ave and allow four virtual BRT lanes with BRT systems going in both directions.
BRT is control by wire so the driver has control points at either end and the configuration never needs a U turn. The wheels use optical sensors and follow accurately paint lane markers, simulating the rail track. The driver yields to automated lane following sometimes, and to manual control at others.
Run these up and down Second Ave, the system computing the passing arrangement for arbitrary BRT units. Mix local, medium, and express. Allow express buses on Second Ave to run at 70 MPH on stretches.
They all communicate and have the usual digital assist all around.
Advantages: Zero street infrastructure costs. All technology assist from silicon intelligence, about four times the capacity in passenger mile per unit time as subway.
Investment tracker for automated vehicles
At the bottom of my links is the investment tracker. I try to keep it updated, but it is not a true investment index, yet.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
More robocar videos
This is the U Tube link for Cycab. I am still looking for novel videos of robocars. And here is an article about driverless Cycbs operating in Vantaa, Finland; as well as trials runs in Mons, Belgium.
By the way:
"According to a leading market research firm Techo Systems Research (TSR), the percentage of new vehicles with integrated cameras is projected to increase from ~20 percent in 2008 to nearly 70 percent in 2012."
Just more evidence.
And here, in Castillon Spain they have driverless steering:
"The guided vehicle systems involve taking the steering of the bus away from the bus driver in the case of Castellón, part of the route. This eliminate the need for any lateral movement of the bus within a lane of traffic. A bus is generally approximately 2.5 m wide, but a bus lane is usually 3.75 m or even 4 m wide to allow for this lateral movement. A guided bus system, provides opportunities to implement dedicated bus ways where road space is in short supply and, where conventional bus lanes could be impractical. It also provides opportunities – by means of automated docking - to improve physical access to the bus by minimising the vertical and horizontal gaps between the bus stop and the bus."
By the way:
"According to a leading market research firm Techo Systems Research (TSR), the percentage of new vehicles with integrated cameras is projected to increase from ~20 percent in 2008 to nearly 70 percent in 2012."
Just more evidence.
And here, in Castillon Spain they have driverless steering:
"The guided vehicle systems involve taking the steering of the bus away from the bus driver in the case of Castellón, part of the route. This eliminate the need for any lateral movement of the bus within a lane of traffic. A bus is generally approximately 2.5 m wide, but a bus lane is usually 3.75 m or even 4 m wide to allow for this lateral movement. A guided bus system, provides opportunities to implement dedicated bus ways where road space is in short supply and, where conventional bus lanes could be impractical. It also provides opportunities – by means of automated docking - to improve physical access to the bus by minimising the vertical and horizontal gaps between the bus stop and the bus."
Krugman gets it right
In his note on the Bush legacy. My hordes of readers know I consider conservative Republicans the closest thing we have to active Communists.
Let me add a link that Krugman neglects. Lowering progressive tax rates by both Bush and Reagan was done precisely to expand government. It is the actual intent of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republicans to expand government, though they may lie about it.
Raising the progressive tax rates by Obama and Clinton is done precisely to reduce government, though Clinton was eventually honest about it.
Let me reiterate this point, the Republican Party was formed by John Fremont exactly to implement socialist subsidies toward western expansion, and unnecessarily caused the Civil War as a result. It was only for a brief period that Republicans abandoned Stalinism. The Reagan big government communist wing of that party is its natural state. That is why they have difficulty changing.
Let me add a link that Krugman neglects. Lowering progressive tax rates by both Bush and Reagan was done precisely to expand government. It is the actual intent of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republicans to expand government, though they may lie about it.
Raising the progressive tax rates by Obama and Clinton is done precisely to reduce government, though Clinton was eventually honest about it.
Let me reiterate this point, the Republican Party was formed by John Fremont exactly to implement socialist subsidies toward western expansion, and unnecessarily caused the Civil War as a result. It was only for a brief period that Republicans abandoned Stalinism. The Reagan big government communist wing of that party is its natural state. That is why they have difficulty changing.
Alex Tabbarok makes a small error
In a post he says that the process produces equilibrium regarding employer behavior in cutting wage costs in reference to Leonhardt's NYT article cutting health care costs by employers. It is true that an employer can gain a near term advantage in cutting employee health care costs and the advantage goes away in equilibrium.
But the economy does not wait for other firms to act for equilibrium to occur. The economy waits for industry to discover the slight advantage. Then the process of coherence takes over and the expectation changes the yield from employment before the other employers act. It works because of information flow.
Knowledge of the future compensation travels first before actual industry compensation adjusts. It is a important distinction to distinguish between scalar instants and the vector world of reality. The vector world of choices get orthongalized into temporal changes in preference much faster than industry adjustments.
But the economy does not wait for other firms to act for equilibrium to occur. The economy waits for industry to discover the slight advantage. Then the process of coherence takes over and the expectation changes the yield from employment before the other employers act. It works because of information flow.
Knowledge of the future compensation travels first before actual industry compensation adjusts. It is a important distinction to distinguish between scalar instants and the vector world of reality. The vector world of choices get orthongalized into temporal changes in preference much faster than industry adjustments.
Greenspan vs Bernanke
In both cases they declared their desire to hold interest rates low, longer, in order to anchor the concept of debt monetization and rebalance. In both cases, the Keynesians said, great idea. In both cases the we gave the Fed a pass so the fiscal authorities could solve some national crisis.
If we blame Greenspan for today's problem, then how can we avoid blaming Bernanke for the bubble in 2015? Maybe the problem is that the fiscal authorities do not know how to solve the national problem. Even worse, maybe some minor regulations supported by the fiscal authorities are the problem, but the fiscal authorities never learn that because the volatility of increasing fiscal spending slows their observations.
Then again, maybe Ricardo Equivalence will take hold sooner this time because we remember the Greenspan results.
If we blame Greenspan for today's problem, then how can we avoid blaming Bernanke for the bubble in 2015? Maybe the problem is that the fiscal authorities do not know how to solve the national problem. Even worse, maybe some minor regulations supported by the fiscal authorities are the problem, but the fiscal authorities never learn that because the volatility of increasing fiscal spending slows their observations.
Then again, maybe Ricardo Equivalence will take hold sooner this time because we remember the Greenspan results.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Great Dissertation
Asha Elizabeth Weinstein about Boston transportation development from 1890 to 1925. Very interesting, Search the link. She is at one of my alma maters, if her bio is up to date. Great work.
This period is from the end of the long and beginning of the great Depressions. Boston is unique because even then they were digging like moles having started subways early.
During the 1920 period Boston knew they were in big trouble regarding city transportation.
As an aside:
In 1923 a downtown department store had a popular, and monopoly, radio station. Just as this dissertation ends, a commercial broadcaster arrived in downtown Boston.
In 1890 New York was just beginning to perfect the overhead wire for tracked cars, still clogged but gaining in efficiency.
I will look for the reference of the horse flu, but read it. The horse flu epidemic around 1870.
New York was being driven by the international cable in an early instance, the telephone in the next and commercial radio hits.
During these phase changes, we undergo the re-calculation affect. This piece about Boston goes into that issue very nicely.
This period is from the end of the long and beginning of the great Depressions. Boston is unique because even then they were digging like moles having started subways early.
During the 1920 period Boston knew they were in big trouble regarding city transportation.
As an aside:
In 1923 a downtown department store had a popular, and monopoly, radio station. Just as this dissertation ends, a commercial broadcaster arrived in downtown Boston.
In 1890 New York was just beginning to perfect the overhead wire for tracked cars, still clogged but gaining in efficiency.
I will look for the reference of the horse flu, but read it. The horse flu epidemic around 1870.
New York was being driven by the international cable in an early instance, the telephone in the next and commercial radio hits.
During these phase changes, we undergo the re-calculation affect. This piece about Boston goes into that issue very nicely.
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