California is restricting publicly funded travel to four more states because of recent laws that leaders here view as discriminatory against gay and transgender people.All totaled, California now bans most state-funded travel to eight states.The new additions to California’s restricted travel list are Texas, Alabama, Kentucky and South Dakota.The eight states banned don't like us anyway, and another ten states would like to join the ban against California.
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Getting serious about secession in California
Assuming no pension stampede
Projection: Chicago's police pension fund will be broke in 2021
It is a two way street when cops observe the limit and bail early. Let the loop do its pricing and we might end up in crisis by late 2018.
The ETH crash
An official post has been published on GDAX’s blog, stating “our initial investigations show no indication of wrongdoing or account takeovers. We understand this event can be frustrating for our customers. Our matching engine operated as intended throughout this event and trading with advanced features like margin always carries inherent risk.
Tradebook uncertainty is a very skewed distribution at the exchange.
We have a matching engine vs some bot or human a few seconds to a few minutes away. In a fair traded system, each trading bot should see the same uncertainty, which is certainly more like 5%, not 30%. Hence, bot trading on margin would have acquired the liquidity or cancelled the debt before the trade executed.
All auto trading, only. Otherwise the reaction times are over the map, you leave huge hedges during high volatility. At the least, why didn't the trade bots have [rice bounds on their bid or ask? Something is not though out here.
The spring break effect
The buyers' clubs
They pre-coordinate and create an artificial supply chain, sharing in gains to scale.
They can be simulated, or activated, with specialized coins, or they can work with other coin issuers. It is simple, really. The beer drinkers will loan money for deliveries of a variety of beers to some region over some time period, a pit open to qualified beer producers. The incentives do the rest, beer drinkers show up over the space and time and drink a variety of cheap brews from small breweries everywhere, while fishing in the boat.
The clubs are illiquid, bond to tight personal consumption contracts. But the number of these clubs are enormous, they will pop up everywhere. Retailers and suppliers will watch, sign up and discount. Clubs reduce flow jitter and pay for less spare capacity.
They pre-coordinate and create an artificial supply chain, sharing in gains to scale.
They can be simulated, or activated, with specialized coins, or they can work with other coin issuers. It is simple, really. The beer drinkers will loan money for deliveries of a variety of beers to some region over some time period, a pit open to qualified beer producers. The incentives do the rest, beer drinkers show up over the space and time and drink a variety of cheap brews from small breweries everywhere, while fishing in the boat.
The clubs are illiquid, bond to tight personal consumption contracts. But the number of these clubs are enormous, they will pop up everywhere. Retailers and suppliers will watch, sign up and discount. Clubs reduce flow jitter and pay for less spare capacity.
Mechanics of NGDP betting queues
My version has two queues, one to remove a bet and one to add a bet. The trading bots are betting the mean value of NGDP when the pit boss declares mean to variance in spec and presses the bets.
In this scenario the even money bot is simple. When it is your turn to remove, do so if your current bet is more than one tradebook uncertainty from the current mean. Then on the add queue, bet the current mean. Your bot trader will always be within one tradebook uncertainty of inflation free cash.
This is a cascaded market structure ordered by significance. The congestion is ex post, in the payoffs. The central bank has to pay off some 6 billion betters and thus needs some digits stored around the world else the money network actually congests, like bitcoin does. But payout ledger fees may be possible, ex post. So here is always a quantization noise gap once the bets are pressed and the proper mean to variance will not appear again until the bets clear.
Finance, it just measures empty space in the basket brigade and charges us for it.
In this scenario the even money bot is simple. When it is your turn to remove, do so if your current bet is more than one tradebook uncertainty from the current mean. Then on the add queue, bet the current mean. Your bot trader will always be within one tradebook uncertainty of inflation free cash.
This is a cascaded market structure ordered by significance. The congestion is ex post, in the payoffs. The central bank has to pay off some 6 billion betters and thus needs some digits stored around the world else the money network actually congests, like bitcoin does. But payout ledger fees may be possible, ex post. So here is always a quantization noise gap once the bets are pressed and the proper mean to variance will not appear again until the bets clear.
Finance, it just measures empty space in the basket brigade and charges us for it.
But they will capitulate to sandbox
Albert Edwards: "Citizens Will Soon Turn Their Rage Towards Central Bankers"
All parties know the new technology is here.
All parties know the new technology is here.
A better inflation survey
What was the largest price change?
-5 to 5 scale, percent
What product did you see this?
List he standard product accounts.
What was the second largest?
Two responses is enough. This is a much more accurate method of adjusting the price distribution. It marks the flows that went just beyond bounds.
-5 to 5 scale, percent
What product did you see this?
List he standard product accounts.
What was the second largest?
Two responses is enough. This is a much more accurate method of adjusting the price distribution. It marks the flows that went just beyond bounds.
How do we estimate NGDP?
We are really good at measuring the implicit price deflator. Another moment of the deja vu, the Hamilton two peak theory.
Example, you think a home appliance was a good deal this month. Some time later you see another large price change in the same appliance. We linearize our two best looks, the recent peak deviations are remembered. Shannon-Nyquist applies, seeing something twice almost locks in a net present value.
The concept of optimum compression is to requantize when you see it 1 1/2 times. That is why we compress the queues, queue size is advanced warning. the economy is optimum we we see fewer deja vus, they are actually inefficient and cause price locks.
They accumulage, they are like tiny quants of overflow or underflow.
Example, you think a home appliance was a good deal this month. Some time later you see another large price change in the same appliance. We linearize our two best looks, the recent peak deviations are remembered. Shannon-Nyquist applies, seeing something twice almost locks in a net present value.
The concept of optimum compression is to requantize when you see it 1 1/2 times. That is why we compress the queues, queue size is advanced warning. the economy is optimum we we see fewer deja vus, they are actually inefficient and cause price locks.
They accumulage, they are like tiny quants of overflow or underflow.
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
Another way to bet NGDP in the pits
The problem with letting the BEA set the release period is that time periodic is a hedging opportunity, prohibited in pure cash.
In this type of bet, the value of NGDP is set when we (6 billion of us) all agree it is set, to some precision. Or, when the bets coalesce to a well rounded error function, then there is nothing more to say, the economy has spoke. The economy speaks when a large representative sample has clicked the NGDP betting Icon and place bets, with direct transaction costs zero, fair access to the error surface, free entry and exit.
The pit boss is looking to find mean to variance meets the stated precision then it computes pay off by probability, or odds if you just take the finite bets and do direct convolutions without assuming a particular distribution. Time is gone, the moment is asynchronous when we agree.
How do 6 billion bet?
Spawn identical pits for the insignificant bet. They still get the pay off odds, but they contribute less to NGDP. Queues of small and similar bets go off branch, look a side chain, have their own pit. Transactions costs almost zero. Easy stuff. If you specify a pit boss that tilts the table, no problem under fair access. An inflationary pit boss will pay out slightly more than is take in on bet compression. But fair access nd trade book uncertainty wienerizes the trend.
In this type of bet, the value of NGDP is set when we (6 billion of us) all agree it is set, to some precision. Or, when the bets coalesce to a well rounded error function, then there is nothing more to say, the economy has spoke. The economy speaks when a large representative sample has clicked the NGDP betting Icon and place bets, with direct transaction costs zero, fair access to the error surface, free entry and exit.
The pit boss is looking to find mean to variance meets the stated precision then it computes pay off by probability, or odds if you just take the finite bets and do direct convolutions without assuming a particular distribution. Time is gone, the moment is asynchronous when we agree.
How do 6 billion bet?
Spawn identical pits for the insignificant bet. They still get the pay off odds, but they contribute less to NGDP. Queues of small and similar bets go off branch, look a side chain, have their own pit. Transactions costs almost zero. Easy stuff. If you specify a pit boss that tilts the table, no problem under fair access. An inflationary pit boss will pay out slightly more than is take in on bet compression. But fair access nd trade book uncertainty wienerizes the trend.
Government programs encourage concentration in cities
Many places in America are essentially devoid of doctors
Rural medicine will never have the economies of scale obtained in LA. Federal regulations is too complex and costly for small rural hospitals.
Rural medicine will never have the economies of scale obtained in LA. Federal regulations is too complex and costly for small rural hospitals.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)