Pure horse manure from NYT

Why the U.S. Risks Repeating 2009’s Economic Stimulus Mistakes

In the wake of the last recession, government spending dried up, dragging out the recovery. Policymakers warn against letting that happen again.

I have proof, the actual data which the NYT has none:

 Here it is. Recessions grow longer as California's public sector needs rebuilding.  This is not repairable by anything the Swamp can do.

The whole scam about the stimulus of 2009 was about covering up the oil shortages.

The NYT and Krugman and Delong were all part of the scam.  We saw Brad deliberately acknowledge the oil problem then suddenly change his mind when California needed a bailout.  The whole progressive scam was about saving the California public sector.

Now California has not done a thing to fix the problem, and the same group are pulling the same scam. The cost of some 200 billion in Fed taxes, laid upon the middle class while wealthy people get wealthier. It is time to devalue, it is time to ignore the Phelps, Delongs, and Krugmans.

The selection of Kamala is an effort to attempt another bailout of California pensions, and good luck on getting the flyover country to agree.

Here is a chart that explains to 2008 recession, ex post:

The scam has been uncovered, the parties identified, there is little more to say. They will continue the scam, as is their right. But we should mostly ignore them.

All he had was a hammer and went looking for a nail

So Friedman argued for using monetary policy rather than fiscal policy to counteract recessions. His prime example was the Great Depression, which he saw as primarily a failure of the Federal Reserve. By the time the Depression hit, Friedman contended, the Fed had allowed the money supply to shrink by about a third, which brought on a deflation that caused the price level to drop by about 25 percent. Deflation stifles economic activity because it raises real interest rates and wages, increases the burden of debt, and forces producers to sell commodities for less than the cost of production, among other things.

The proper theory of banking is that monetarism does not work.  The pt boss can do not better then to match loans to deposits.  

This fact is well proven at this point by just looking at that mammoth 200 billion dollar Fed tax we are facing, a deflationary nightmare. 

Bur Bruce Bartlett is way out of his league:

But Friedman’s account glossed over why the money collapsed. When banks failed in those days, their deposits simply disappeared: There was no deposit insurance, and the bulk of the money supply consisted of bank deposits, not cash. The Fed lacked the legal authority to buy banks and keep them solvent, which is the only thing that would have helped. (Needless to say, Friedman would also have opposed nationalization of the banks on libertarian grounds.) The Fed was also constrained by the gold standard, which many foolish right-wingers still advocate.

The great depression was a technology shock, pure and simple and well proven.  The cause was Hoover, agglomerating the broadcast spectrum causing huge mismatches between trade space and infrastructure. As a result the roads jammed almost overnight in every city of America.

Bruce will not understand this issue and most economists get it wrong.  The proper thing to do is listen to mathematicians and technologists, ignore the economic pundits. We knew the answer ten years ago. We can identify the meeting place and the date when this happened. 

My hometown in the news

 Congressman Jim Costa honors former Raiders coach Tom Flores for Hispanic Heritage Month

Except Floes was your standard California kid. Most of us are Hispanic, natural or coverts because California was the founding state for Hispanics from the 1700s.  I doubt Jim Costa understands this.

The Ron Paul approach to medicine

 President Donald Trump continues to hold large campaign events

that public health experts say could lead to more infections and death amid a raging pandemic that has cost 200,000 American lives and counting.

The U.S. reached the grim milestone this week as Trump addressed thousands of supporters who were jammed together, mostly without masks, in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, where he mocked his Democratic rival Joe Biden for wearing a face mask.

How is it working?

Conspiracy theorist Trump supporter Tony Tenpenny who dismissed coronavirus as ‘socialist’ hoax is killed by disease

Do not listen to Rand or Ron,  they are quite ignorant of the problem.

Use a drop off box, the postal union is not trusted

Wisconsin Authorities Investigate Absentee Ballots Found In Ditch, As FBI Probes Discarded Pro-Trump Ballots In PA

The unions cheat, I know that from living in California. 

We have the postal union, so make sure you receive you ballot and use a drop off box to turn it in.

From the Ghost and Goblins crowd

Judge's faith becomes early flashpoint in Supreme Court fight

Amy Coney Barrett, who is a contender to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg, belongs to a tight-knit charismatic Christian community whose conservative views alarm some liberals.

Reminds me of Biden picking Kamala.  

This is nightmaresville, we can kiss the Supremes good by. Absolute lunacy is gripping the electorate.

It is the Markov condition

PRICING THE TERM STRUCTURE OF VIX FUTURES

The term-structure of VIX futures contains interesting information on broker-dealer risk appetite. This is because, during risk-offs, dealers bid up the price of insurance against market volatility (which is what the VIX measures) but they only do so at the short end. That is, they bid up VIX futures with short tenors. This is why the term-structure inverts (called backwardation) when volatility spikes. This is clear from the surface plot of VIX futures prices (x is date, y is tenor and z is price).

The broker dealers are removing the skew under the assumption that money cannot be modeled. A sort of hybrid Black-Sholes and Markov.

They model the short end for the simple reason that the betting structure is finite binomial  when all the information is shared about events in the past. So all they need to do is match the slope at the left end of a binomial. The rest of the binomial takes is cue from the short end. So the broker/dealers remove skew, they are doing 3-tuple Markov.

The key to understanding all this is to know the past is ex post.  Because it is ex post, all trades are betting the complete cycles, from peak to peak.  Thus, the sequence in the past is recast as a binomial probability because they all have to bet each other as well as the past. It is self sampled systems.

The curve inverts because central bank money is a distortion, it is fouled with implied tax collection. Alpha is the first binomial, beta the second, and the broker-dealers create the third binomial for skew. gamma I think.  Matching moments, I see a lot of research on the topic these days.

It wasn't an accident, according to the Kentucky AG

As we reported last night, protesters hit the streets in Louisville, NYC, LA, Denver, Oakland, Washington DC and other cities across the US after a Kentucky grand jury decided that no officers would be charged in the killing of Breonna Taylor, a tragic accident that was the result of officers serving a "no-knock" warrant.

Zero Hedge playing nice.

It is not accidental, it is now legal for gun owners to shoot through windows according to the Kentucky AG and the Second Amendment.  I am curious about the cops who invite this king of nonsense because these cops in Kentucky are also arguing it is OK to shoot cops while on patrol. It is now a misdemeanor to kill a cop when you fear for your life.

This is as stupid as it gets, and points out the fundamental problem. We don't want to pay for smart cops. Cops who do the smart thing and avoid being legally ambushed, evidently the current  cops with IQs about 50 seem to be rare. 

Where do they keep their francs?

 SNB Sticks With Interventions to Combat Highly Valued Franc

They keep their francs on deposit, folks.  So I suggest the Swiss central bank run an S/L, and let the depositors and borrowers worry about the value of the franc.  I see no reason to think the pit boss has any concern at all about some exogenous value of the franc, the pit boss just runs a matching algorithm with risk adjusted clients.

In other words, go full service sandbox.  If the Swiss bank ends up as the worlds reserve currency, so be it. Just keep the government out of the mix.

What oil rebound would that be?

Two Ways To Win Big On The Oil Price Rebound

It is chart time again:

 This chart tells me oil will stay around forty and we will be having a shitload of deflation. If you want oil prices high then you need the dollar low, and the dollar seems quite happy in the current trend. 

I wish these analysts would look at the charts before mouthing their priors.

One thing I might point out.  The crappy little Bush kid is the one who ran oil prices up. Now that the crappy little Bush kid is gone, oil is back to normal.