Do each of the Biden women suffer the humiliation?

 

In her face, the expression: 'I guess its my turn!'

Why does he sneak up behind? I think is mom slapped him once for grabbing booby from the front. The 'sneak from behind' has become meme.

R > G for 40 years

 

The blue line is the net interest rate, interest expense divided by total debt.

The red line is real growth.  The Swamp has been a loser in this game from  1965 until 2010. Then we got a period of r = g since.  

This has been mostly a 40 year battle to get back to normal after the Nixon default. Reagan was no help, little Bush fouled up.  Someone has been preaching BS for fifty years.

Student loans

Taxpayers Face $435 Billion in Student-Loan Losses, Already Baked in: Leaked Education-Department Study

 Student-loan balances on the government’s financial statement skyrocketed from $147 billion in 2009 to $1.37 trillion at the beginning of 2020, despite the 11% decline in student enrollment since 2011.

Half the debt is below $17,000/student. The bulk of the losses are graduate students with low income potential. The bandits are the educational institutions. At 17k, a college loan pays for itself. But sticking around college for another eight years does not.

Forget what I said, lets kick can

 "unwise to enact large deficit reductions in the current crisis. To protect future generations"

Another warning on the debt, a warning for tomorrow. The post explains why we absolutely have to manage the debt, tomorrow. Today we can still kick can, is its conclusion.

The future generations are here, today. If you 35 years and young then you never knew about the Texas bailout; 50 years or younger you never voted for it. Over half our population has no clue why we are still paying interest charges on that debt, today. They are  in the streets with torches and pitchforks, today.

And that is why the Swift ledger chain is splitting

The split between Swift banks who collect the fees and those who don't.  We have traders who visit Swift chain once a year, to clear taxes; then they are back on the other chain. 

I think this is the general case when we add a drift term to the pit boss, inherited from Pauli Exclusion principle and the number one.  A liquid thrown into the medium with acceleration along the axis parallel to the surface, should break into concentrics; even odd rings of expansion. 

I digress.  The Swift split is what concerns Janet and the bankers union. Her priorities, keep the Swamp liquid and get bankers out of tax collection. 

Janet raised IOER in 2015

 Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy

This is her speech above for doing so. She says that inflation expectations were well anchored and any local deflation spikes were temporary.

At the time she actually raised rats because the one year Treasury had started rising. She wants to keep her deposits, at least some of them. She wanted to get out of the remit business, and wanted more tax dodging from the Swift banks (more deposits). And she had the dual obligation of keeping government liquid.

Are expectations for inflation well anchored? No. Her chart is not complete, and oil prices had just crashed from 105 to 30, a sudden, massive deflation spike, caused mainly by the rush to the dollar for whatever reason, probably by the Opec. 

None of this makes sense, the only thing that makes sense is that the one year was rising and government needed to stay liquid and the Fed wants out of the remit business. So they raised deposit rates to keep the remit stream stable and dropping.

Everyone is avoiding taxes, at the moment. We are all finding escape paths. It is that time.

Janet's point at Treasury is simple, she knows that having Swift banks collect remits is horse shit, she want that shifted to a Treasury inflation tax. She is on the side of the bankers union, a good union soldier. So is Powell.

Much of what we hear is in institutional language, semantics with sharp boundaries. S they cannot speak plainly, Janet cannot say, "hey this crap is unfair to Swift". They cannot say inflation tax.  Anything that might cause sudden stop is shoveled over to the 'long run'. Any point proven with a suitably fake 'expectations' operator. It is a mix of law and slight of hand. 

The 2 percent ex post uncovered cost of unbalanced government. That it what is anchored. More of that imbalance known hedged with set aside. Business knows that their government costs are not completely hedged. But if you ask them, "How much unanticipated costs from government do you expect?" He will answer with the amount of price hikes he needs next year.

Government imbalance losses are a  little over one percent, Kevin Drum thinks it is closer to fifth of a  percent. I voted for two percent, I am an anarchist. The anchored expectation now is that government has short changed us about one point, or less. We got the Swamp better hedged then ever.

Its Christmas

Biden Team, Pushing Quick Stimulus Deal, Prepares for Renewed Recession

We already be drinking rum. and the Georgia elections are in Jan. After the run off election, the one side or the other will want to delay until inauguration. So tell Jared Bernstein to quit the hysterics, is not helping

Search engines create flash mobs

 The thin the links, and inevitably thin the semantics between common interests on the web. Higher priority interests agglomerate faster than lower priority. It is a neural net effect, intermediate partial equilibriums, flash mobs.

AI? Yes, great stuff. This is a run time pit boss minimizing the search lengths, taking out loops.

A hidden banker rebellion?

 My latest guess on, behind the scenes, at monetary affairs.

The regulated banks we just getting back to normal and get hit again, future regulations and fees and restrictions. They are back on the bottom of the capital market. Yellen and Powell are in the know, they see a bankers union strike pending.

Like the various militaries, everyone is up against a technology force. For the bankers it is here and now, they need to get back to that frontier. Yellen and Powell; are the first of the elders at the meet up.

There 'block chain' is splitting between those who deal with the sandbox and those who shun it. We have an intra union civil war.

Who wants to do a Supreme court hullabaloo?

 Michigan certifies Biden, and I think he has reached the formal point, were the Ts are dotted and all the Is are crossed. Trumpster has to decide if he goes to the Supremes, who will turn him down. Most repubs are not going to the Supremes with him. And the Trumpster? Why submit yourself to one last slap in the face.

Trump tells GSA that Biden transition can begin

Well, it was fun while it lasted.