Saturday, August 21, 2010

Production spectrums

Log Normal Distributions, Wiki
This chart is reversed from the format of normal economic yield curves, and the X axis is transaction rate under QM Theory. All of these 'spectrums' are normalized about 1.0, lets call that potential growth. These curves slope down to the left of 1.0, but we do not see that in normal yield curves because that spectrum gets bundled within the firm at the long end of production.

Wholesale is on the left, retail on the right. Oil production would be skewed left, oil fields, tankers and refinery inventories updated a very low transaction rates and very high transaction sizes. The retail sector of liquid energy, the long spread right, is just the gasoline truck inventories and gas stations; terminating in the auto gas tank. Lighter weight goods, say the bond market, looks more symmetrical, like the purple distribution.

The difference between the skewed and symmetrical productions, along the curve, is limited to the acceptable error for the economy, and its rare for the bankers curve to "cover" the real goods with one configuration over time.  The integrated spectral power differences among the various production networks must stay within nominal error bounds,  and generally can only get there over time by continual contractions and expansions.

The internet is this huge, spread out information network, listing inventory levels globally.  The  internet infrastructure requirements are low relative to the retail rate of information flow, so the new knowledge about inventories appears on the chart as a widely spread distribution, centered to the left of potential growth.  Since 1980, observed inventory variances have changed, suddenly, as we see the same good in more places.  Inventories appear out of place, off-equilibrium, so actual growth drops below potential.

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