Download their data, then look at regional variations in the index for pre and post 2009. (The spurt in federal spending occurred in the first half of 2009).
What regional variations would we expect?
Well, entropy theory says that the effect should be seen approximately the same across all regions. Differential effects would indicate that the economy shifted to a more contracted condition. In particular, if we see that the regional effect was more pronounced over the Washington/NY corridor, which it is, then we can hypothesize that Washington saved itself, at the expense of outlying regions, a stimulus fail.
My eyeball says the Texas region lost out, NY/Washington were the big gainers, Pacific hardly noticed the thing one way or the other, and the middle part of the country got the average effect. New England is from Mars, North Central got a small bounce.
The Ceridian does a good job in isolating regions, in fact I would use their boundaries as a starting point when we break up the USA.
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