Saturday, April 15, 2017

The mind of a time plotter

A good research point, I have found, is the local market, a step above my corner grocer.  Me and my local are always at maximum entropy, we are the end of the chain.

But the larger store, that is where it all happens, especially the time plotters, I see them all the time.  Here is the clue, and you will see it in yourselves. These plotters are mostly done shopping, walking their carts.  They take a peek at the check out lines, estimate the line length. If they see a short, they jump on it, otherwise they go shopping a bit more.  These are the glitter sticks roaming about in the smart contract layer, pure cash does not see this stuff, yet these folks are 'stealing time'.  That is, they get extra shopping, but locally their use of time, in and out, is relatively fixed.

So, you see the impossibility of betting time in the pits, growth per year, on schedule.  All the growthers would conspire to take steal time. At the margin, they can hold or supply growth from inventory to make the bet.

Betting time is great, in the smart layer.  Betting time is the same as increasing efficiency of production or consumption and doing God's work, we love it.  But, we cannot bet the stuff in the pits, we can only bet liquidity events/.

What about betting annual economic reports?

They will always  be revised, and you are bet the GDP reports in parts.   The time bet problem gets asmoothed a bit.  But we will still see the annual blip on the GDP series, like we see the quarterly blips on the Fed series. In the sandbox, we have multi-currency.  Time  bets are  losers bet in that the coin doing the accounts will lose market share, until the GDP series for that coin is sufficiently uncertain again, that is, driven to an unpredictability.

Use my method for GDP betting.  Bet on the current GDP + 2% and eventually the bet spread will be compressed against the measurement and pay-offs exchanged.  At that point, the pit will give the ledger system a tick, say the 2% tick. Everyone in smart layer can reset their clocks to the tick. They can work backwards, linearly, to get the best smart layer measure for GDP at some fixed point in the year.

Betting on her 2% growth event among the parties is like a variable ledger system. At some point the consensus become, yes, we are close enough to 2% to press the bets and tick the clock. It is legally binding that we have met Uncle Milt's 2% edict. If you disagree, then you have already lost the money needed to make it so.

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