Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Betting the economic numbers in the pit

I keep thinking about this and repeat myself a lot.

The numbers we bet arrive at a fix time, and its a one color trade, so the pit needs the betting fee as a backstop.  No betting fee, the betting queue jams as everyone is on it.

So, the bets come in and are maintained in the tree by significance, longer paths being more significant.  Then all the insider bets are made, the number comes in.  We would expect to decompose our tree into a probability x y chart.  It should be bell shaped, though skewed. Use the error function, best fit the thing, then pay off those according to their fit on the erf, pay them from ledger fees.

What we getis the savings and loan effect, yet again. We force better to estimate the supply chain from now until the event, and place excess coin on the bet as a saving.

I like targeting the implicit deflator (GDP)  at second first revision; two (one and a half?)  quarters previous.  This is second look, deja vu time, all the surprises come there. If you pick the quartere and a half, make the BEA  put out a mid quarter revision. We do not get the deja vu, we get early hints, but pay a price in volatility.  Early hints good, deja vu cause price fixing.

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