When was the pending recession first observed?

Macro and Other Musings discussed the issue. So I go back to my Universal Economic Calculator and following David Beckworth's argument, I see the spot precisely as March 10, 2006. At that point, there was a rush to buy long term treasuries. The financial market correctly predicted the recession and the subsequent drop in long term rates. Going to my oil charts, (second chart) , I discover that oil at just peaked past $60, setting a new record since 1983. By late 2006, the yield curve was fully inverted.

Niall Ferguson hits back at Paul Krugment for the Econ 101 lecture when Naill pointed out that large deficits would cause inflation expectations.

The correct answer? The recent run up in rates after the Treasury auctions is caused by the financial markets indicating the deficits cannot hold with the severe oil constraint still on the docket. It is the deficit in comparison to the constraint that matters. Financial markets are testing whether the "stimulus" is actually solving the constraint. It is not. The stimulus is trying to solve problems not related to the cause of the recession.