Digitizing the Clunker

Prediction:
Cars will be talking to each other and to the traffic web within one year.

Humans and their clunkers will embrace two way digital traffic radio. I call it Digicom for this post, but the system is a combined wifi and GPS for the auto. Digicoms continually receive information about the traffic around the the car and present it in display to the driver. Both dashboard and built in digicoms will be popular. They come with a manually transmit off switch for the paranoid to avoid being tracked. But someone is going to track traffic and distribute the information. There is nothing to stop the industry, as long as cameras and radio can be mounted near traffic.

Using the technology, drivers with similar vehicles and routes will demand the right to rent time and space on our roadways. They will digitally organize their convoys. traveling in constant speed with signal assist. Microcars travel in protected groups, as do large cargo rigs.

We will enter the era of pulsed traffic. Convoys coagulating out of nowhere, and following a computed route, aided by signaling back to the driver. Drivers can pre-plan their routes with path reservation, minimizing travel delay and enabling constant speed movement.

Insurance will push safety advantages, shipping companies will push the gas savings. Consumer commuters will embrace the enhanced level of commute choices on the road. Drivers will embrace the enhanced digital information and warnings. Metropolitan planners will embrace the flexible revenue stream and low infrastructure costs. Transit managers will utilize space reservation to remove bus delay and implement virtual BRT.

Market Segmentation
Overall, the American market will support a total of 300 million Digicoms over the next ten year period. at a unit price from $50 to $200 for typical installations and features. Large integrators like Google, IBM, and AAA will team up in various coalitions to act as interface between metropolitan districts and the auto driver. I would expect major chip vendors to participate with chip sets. Device vendors will market better features, faster response times and more accurate positioning. On line travel agents will resell space on our roadways.

Transportation
Lane reservations allows the trucking industry to experiment safely with longer configurations. The same effect occurs in high density districts where larger bus configurations are supported. This enabling of choices accelerates the microcar movement. Efficient insurance companies will be keen on selecting insurance risks who stay in digitally reserved routes, being the safest and most monitored.

Technical features
Device vendors will advertise ping capability and accuracy of collision warnings. Pinging with roadway radios allow precise positioning of the care and the lane. Drivers could get early warnings on signal changes. Real time lane pricing with driver cues will maximize throughput and minimize lane changing. Light signaling systems will be able to avert accidents by ensuring collisionless light change, while adding congestion fees for fast running of yellows. Cars will signal each other on lane changes and turns. Tracking for car theft should be a market driver.

Enabling technology
Initially 100% market absorption is not possible. The traffic network information must come from cameras which can derive approximate tracking information for cars. Thus will early adopters have advantage of a known traffic map in real time. THe concept is called a bridge technology, in this case, software that transcribes images of traffic into digital position transmissions.

Sales
Fleet sales will be first; commercial, fire, bus, police. Initially supported from existing cell towers.

Digicom consumer sales will start when automobile owners hear about variable traffic choices, rather than congestion pricing. We need to talk to the automobile owner about enhanced road and traffic information, lower insurance rates, low automobile maintenance, shorter trip times, and fewer traffic fines.

We need to develop markets for resale of traffic space and to define on-line sales models for group road rental.

And the big three is worth repeating, IBM, AAA, and Google; systems, safety, and applications. These three need to approach metropolitan transit planners with similarity of ideas.