Mainly US energy efficiency has been growing slower than global energy demand. Couple that with two new entitlements under the Bush administration, an extra war, and we find that we have been borrowing from OPEC.
Energy efficiency vs energy demand have been the major determinant of foreign exchange rates since 2001. The evidence is the very high correlation between the dollar deflater and oil prices. We would see more wiggle room between the two if energy was not constraining.
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