Sunday, May 17, 2015

Theories of voting, via Bryan Caplan

I search 'hidden agenda', my says we plan ahead and in the transaction model the hidden agenda is the second period of planning. It has to be this way, otherwise we could not plan ahead.

But I ran across Bryan Caplan's course syllabus on a class in voter motivation. Let me clear a few things up regarding the collection of data, I have gone into this previously.

In California, 90% of the voting on ballots concern ballot measures, local, county and state. 8% concern the actual election of legislatures by party.  Barely more than 2% here concern with national politics.  Collecting aggregate voting data will simply mix the instruments one looks for.  Political scientists who do this voting analysis correctly almost always do voter analysis on a district by district basis before aggregation. The research I looked into was extensive and was mostly about ballot  initiative and voter education on the issues.  Political scientists often do good work. But never try and discern anything from national voting aggregates without decomposition at the district level first.

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