Let's do Fed dynamics

The chart is fed target, effective rate and one year treasury. We will handwave the second derivative in this chart.

For 1993 to 1994 no movement.  Movement starts with the effective rate (red), a quarter point. Did the Fed foretell a rate hike? Could be, collusion is ommon.  But then the one year takes off, so you know we have a race, and the Fed is behind, and the one year got some mojo.  The Fed never really catches up.

Krugman, look at this chart and explain he collusion that allowed to Fed to fix the race, and bet against itself. The plot may well be real.