My original theory. The Asian rebalance upset the housing industry seasonal pattern. Likely the extra construction jobs were interpreted as a seasonal rise in retail. A very benign result. Chinese outflow is volatile, and the yuan is likely to drop another 10% soon, so those, now lost, construction jobs may come back. Can revisions blue bar Q1? We are in June and no real mass layoffs.
There remains the nagging idea, we are learning to bounce along at volatile, and lower growth rate; like we collectively figured something out.
Then the depression scenario:
What are the millennials hiding from? Obamacare instability, student debt, entitlement risk, and a pending monetary rebalance. The boomers suddenly retire, the cost of coming out rises for the millennial. Example, millennials cannot plan a future in Chicago, Baltimore or even New York. Government can't adapt as the youth flee. And a 10% dip in the market puts municipalities at financial risk everywhere. New York and California are still primed for big swings in public sector jobs. I doubt that the Chicago public schools can opereate next year, especially as violence increases. A federal take over likely.
No comments:
Post a Comment