Jobs

The graph tells us how much adjustment is needed to average out the seasonality in jobs.  Consider ski instructors, we expect them to go to the beach in the summer, So we say the ski jobs are still there, they are just taking their seasonal layoff.

It can be very accurate to make seasonality adjustments, but it is a bit scary when your adjustment ratios get larger over the years.  Two things are happening to the adjustment ratios, 1) Asian rebalance has thrown the construction seasonality all to hell and 2) we are playing a large game of medical industry expansion, and that is anti-seasonal. The Obamacare provisions kick in on Q1 each time, but Obamacare had no seasonal pattern to begin.

Looking into the jobs data we see the fastest growth in health care profession.  We see that from education and health category, and note that teachers are not on a hiring binge.  This growth in healthcare depends on our willingness to suffer 5-15% premium increases yearly.  We are refusing to do that as can be seen in exchange losses for Obamacare.  So this process is spiraling to the bottom, fewer payers, higher costs; it will suddenly stop.