Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Maybe

U.S. Election Priced as Worst Event Risk in VIX Futures History

Any outcome results in the same mess.  The instability is endogenous. 

They didn't have VIX to measure risk for most of the US elections.  But I doubt this election will portend a civil war, just a big fat frigging, uncertain  mess.  We will end up with decision made via a room full of governors without an aggregate IQ above room temperature.

The future of economics is meeting the Lucas criteria

Is This the Future of Economics?

Using ambiguous terms like 'market' does not advance your cause.  The p[rogressives still suffer flat earth problems and their outcomes are never really predictable.

Here is an answer:

What happened in 1971 is that we begin using the Fed as an agent of taxation against the poor and middle class. Taxation without representation of the poor was widely pushed by the Kenynesians. The fix is to meet Lucas criteria, recognize that progressives are a foul as the other side. 

We should  just admit the facts and keep it minimal. The alternative is your proposal, ignore the side effects and flat earth it with a can kick.  Your approach of kicking the can reaces a diminishing returns, as the Lucas criteria would tell you.  Now is the time for strategic devaluation, with at leas a bit of Lucas thrown in.  Make the current banking collapse a little less horrid than the one under Nixon.

Anybody but the Ghost and Goblin crowd

Lebanese eager for French leadership in absence of their own

Assign Lebanon to a French Protectorate, just announce failure.

Fed bailout of government mortgage insurers

The Fed Now Owns Nearly One Third of All US Mortgages

Balance sheet, a third of which are mortgage backed securities:

Fed's Balance Sheet 2020-08-26A


Jump in Early-Stage Delinquencies Leads to Highest Overall Delinquency Rate in Over Four Years

Here is the rate at which mortgages are headed toward delinquency:

Figure 1: Current- to 30-Day Transition Rate


Fed taxes are going up higher than even I thought.  Banking will collapse.  Congress is not taking the hit on this all by itself, this will be seigniorage taxes all that way, and my estimate of those taxes are 150 billion and counting.  All if it will hit the regulated banking sector.

This is why Powell talks in code about inflation.  He wants Treasury, via Congress, to accept some of these loses.

Foot voters

Downtown Chicago has huge oversupply of homes for sale – Crain’s

Matt Laricy, managing partner with Americorp Real Estate, said that in recent weeks, he’s been meeting with five new sellers a day, while he’d usually be seeing one a day in late summer.“Since the second round of looting, it’s been like the Hoover Dam broke and the water is gushing through,” Laricy said. “My phone does not stop ringing with people who say they love Chicago but they’ve had enough.”

Leave your house on the market and walk away. 

Trump campaign managers read my blog

Defying local officials, Trump arrives in Kenosha

I was the only one who pointed out that Kamala should be the first to show up in Kenosha.  I figured that would be a winning event for Biden.  She never showed, Trump did.

And that is the Biden trap, Kamala cannot get away from the Californians. And that is the big campaign advantage for Trump, the race is closer than we think.

Trump has slipped among key groups that backed him in 2016

President Trump's support has eroded among key groups of voters who backed him in 2016 — a major reason why he continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden and a prime motivator for the president's reelection strategy of emphasizing violent disorder in the nation's cities.

Voters who thought Hillary was a dingbat.  They are holding their nose and voting Biden.  But with eight weeks to go, and Biden showing severe senility, Trump having strokes; the choice is between a Pres Kamala and Prex Pence.  We still might get the anti-dingbat vote.  Biden should have picked Whitmer.

Giving up on Arnold Kling

 For a while anyway.

He seems determined to have one of those old time philosophy debates between Marxists and capitalists, straight from the 1930s.  I dunno why, something about libertarians getting thrown under the bud, by who?  

He seems to be completely ignorant about constitutional restrictions and powers which are decidedly not libertarian and thinks we can sweep these away with a new philosophy.  His approach has not worked, it never worked, there is no philosophical solution to the issues.  All we can do  work a round the Constitutional restrictions.   

He claims we can overcome the inherent soft money as determined by the right to coin.  But Right to Coin is there, it is assigned, there is no other group who can coin effectively at the moment, it is illegal, by Constitution. So we need a work around, there is no philosophy except a work around that minimize the problem. It has never been the case that philosophy defeats these issue, never in the 250 years since the founding.  Who told him otherwise?

Skin color is part of it

Why Are Children of Color Getting COVID-19 at Huge Rates?

I read a research report on skin color, seasonality, and infections.  There seems to be a slight affect due to vitamin D.  It is not the whole effect.

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Another one bites he dust

 Australia Plunges Into First Recession In 29 Years Following Biggest GDP Drop On Record

Avogadro as we know it is not a fractional approximation

 I  know (3/2)^(109 + 27) get me Avogadro's, or very close.

108 is the maximum number of approximation to an irrational;.

Avogadro is measured with energy input,  it is flat earth. It is not the natural vacuum so are not self sampled, hence they get the extra 37 index spots.  So we have two constants, the energy equalized version and the under sampled version. 

Doing Avogadro is adding hard barriers and forcing collisions. The count of electrons assumes the electrons are a Gaussian blob. They have it in a positive spherical shell and are cooling it down.    They can read out the charge count.   The experiment is energy consuming.