A simple electric micro-car

Simple design, low speed, low range. Read about it.

San Fancisco congestion problems

Good reporting by City Fix about the SF congestion pricing debate just beginning.

According to the Advisory [On congestion pricing] Committee’s memo:

• “On average, peak-period travel times are about twice as long as in the off-peak”
• “In 2005 alone, San Francisco sacrificed over $2 billion in lost time and out-of-pocket costs such as excess fuel for individuals and commercial transportation.”
• “Transportation is responsible for about half of greenhouse gas emissions in San Francisco, with 47 percent of the total contributed by private automobiles”

A good article from SFGate about congestion pricing in the city:

"Planners are still considering where to collect the tolls. Initially, they considered establishing a downtown zone - a twin triangle area bounded by Washington, Jones, Turk and Harrison streets and Van Ness Avenue. Then they looked at charging fees at the city's major gateways: the Bay and Golden Gate bridges, Highway 101 and Interstate 280.

But the downtown zone was too small, and drivers would just avoid it, causing problems in adjacent neighborhoods, Bent said. And charging at the gateways would reduce traffic from outside San Francisco but might end up encouraging more driving among city residents, she said."

My comment.

Technology being deployed today would allow the city to charge variable rates for various parts of the city at various times. Not only that, we can give drivers a cue about pricing in real time. Not only that, the city should share pricing data with on-line commute and freight planners. Car owners who obtain the standard device will soon get an insurance discount. Traffic accidents likely will drop by a third. Transportation costs drop in the trade off between congestion fees and delivery delay. The on time rate for all traffic, public and private, will increase. BRT is a natural outcome. Whichever city implements a successful ITS network will reap large gains. San Francisco teamed with Silicon Valley?

Odds and ends

Congestion pricing makes it to Utah.
Congestion pricing has some support in the Arlington transportation board.
Automobile restrictions , trials on Market Street, SF have been ongoing and data will be out soon.

Oakland Airport connector, with new conditions. The new conditions should raise the price tag from $500 million to $700 million.

Volvo is in final tests of its pedestrian detection system for cars. Pedestrian detect and avoidance is a key technology for Robocars.

Pioneer introduces DSRC communications into its line of portable navigation system.

The DOT is reporting that collision detect technology should eliminate 50% of rear end collisions. This British "Best Truck in History" winner has all the driver assist technology.

And Gov Pawlenty joins the Intelligent Traffic movement with both feet, including lane guidance for buses. Or buy the portable Navigon with lane assist aids while driving.

Speaking of automatic lane guidance, here are some field trials in the US. And the European ITS Congress trials of full driver assist.

So we live in a world in which we can assemble all the parts for a deliverbot, and deliver groceries to poor people at 1/4 the delivery costs.

Deregulate the Suburban Mail Box!

The USPS has monopoly access to the suburban mail box. Restricting mail box use impedes transportation efficiency. By raising suburban delivery costs, house utility is reduced.

I start with this report. Then imagine the life of the United Parcel Service delivery person. 40% of the cost of the last mile is the time spent from the delivery seat to the front door. The mail box monopoly restricts a more ambitious, and secure use of home delivery. Even with limited automation, adding quality to the mail box, and placing it near the curb offers enormous advantages in options for last mile delivery. If the pizza delivery boy carried wireless tracking then the customer would know the exact second the pizza was delivered to a curb side delivery box.

The fear in the government mail industry is that their monopoly hold on the mail box and inflexible pricing go together, exactly the opposite of what we want.

Digitizing the Clunker

Prediction:
Cars will be talking to each other and to the traffic web within one year.

Humans and their clunkers will embrace two way digital traffic radio. I call it Digicom for this post, but the system is a combined wifi and GPS for the auto. Digicoms continually receive information about the traffic around the the car and present it in display to the driver. Both dashboard and built in digicoms will be popular. They come with a manually transmit off switch for the paranoid to avoid being tracked. But someone is going to track traffic and distribute the information. There is nothing to stop the industry, as long as cameras and radio can be mounted near traffic.

Using the technology, drivers with similar vehicles and routes will demand the right to rent time and space on our roadways. They will digitally organize their convoys. traveling in constant speed with signal assist. Microcars travel in protected groups, as do large cargo rigs.

We will enter the era of pulsed traffic. Convoys coagulating out of nowhere, and following a computed route, aided by signaling back to the driver. Drivers can pre-plan their routes with path reservation, minimizing travel delay and enabling constant speed movement.

Insurance will push safety advantages, shipping companies will push the gas savings. Consumer commuters will embrace the enhanced level of commute choices on the road. Drivers will embrace the enhanced digital information and warnings. Metropolitan planners will embrace the flexible revenue stream and low infrastructure costs. Transit managers will utilize space reservation to remove bus delay and implement virtual BRT.

Market Segmentation
Overall, the American market will support a total of 300 million Digicoms over the next ten year period. at a unit price from $50 to $200 for typical installations and features. Large integrators like Google, IBM, and AAA will team up in various coalitions to act as interface between metropolitan districts and the auto driver. I would expect major chip vendors to participate with chip sets. Device vendors will market better features, faster response times and more accurate positioning. On line travel agents will resell space on our roadways.

Transportation
Lane reservations allows the trucking industry to experiment safely with longer configurations. The same effect occurs in high density districts where larger bus configurations are supported. This enabling of choices accelerates the microcar movement. Efficient insurance companies will be keen on selecting insurance risks who stay in digitally reserved routes, being the safest and most monitored.

Technical features
Device vendors will advertise ping capability and accuracy of collision warnings. Pinging with roadway radios allow precise positioning of the care and the lane. Drivers could get early warnings on signal changes. Real time lane pricing with driver cues will maximize throughput and minimize lane changing. Light signaling systems will be able to avert accidents by ensuring collisionless light change, while adding congestion fees for fast running of yellows. Cars will signal each other on lane changes and turns. Tracking for car theft should be a market driver.

Enabling technology
Initially 100% market absorption is not possible. The traffic network information must come from cameras which can derive approximate tracking information for cars. Thus will early adopters have advantage of a known traffic map in real time. THe concept is called a bridge technology, in this case, software that transcribes images of traffic into digital position transmissions.

Sales
Fleet sales will be first; commercial, fire, bus, police. Initially supported from existing cell towers.

Digicom consumer sales will start when automobile owners hear about variable traffic choices, rather than congestion pricing. We need to talk to the automobile owner about enhanced road and traffic information, lower insurance rates, low automobile maintenance, shorter trip times, and fewer traffic fines.

We need to develop markets for resale of traffic space and to define on-line sales models for group road rental.

And the big three is worth repeating, IBM, AAA, and Google; systems, safety, and applications. These three need to approach metropolitan transit planners with similarity of ideas.

New Yorkers, get a Clue!

About congestion pricing.

David Weprin, a Democrat representing parts of Queens on the City Council, is a bit confused about how to help the working class. Congestion pricing offers the working class the least cost path into the city to work. It allows them to tailor their arrival times somewhat, and in return get a much better congestion free commute, saving money on the margin.

This New Yorker complains that congestion pricing will force her into a long bus commute. I agree that any given city will likely screw the buses up, but congestion pricing should result in substantial faster bus routes, and hopefully better bus routes.

An interesting poll of New Yorkers regarding traffic issues. But mayoral candidates misunderstand the congestion issue anyway. The idea is not to get people out of their cars, actually, but let them use their cars in Manhattan more efficiently, having some a pricing system that achieves more flow through and less stop and go. If system wide two way traffic communications were a reality, then Manhattan actually ends up with more cars, as they become more efficient.

Congestion pricing is simply one toe into the world of full two way traffic communications enabling the synchronization of traffic in New York that benefits everyone. New Yorkers need to embrace the concept and they will see a greater economy across the board.

More robots

A skiing robot, HT HotAir And a two wheel drive hospital deliverbot. The MARTI teams attempts off the shelf integration of an autonomous vehicle.

And this About Mitsubishi Concept PX-MiEV :

" * The "New Multi-around Monitor" system uses cameras located at strategic points on the body to provide the driver with a combined image of the full perimeter of the vehicle. The combined image is displayed for the driver on a monitor from an overhead view for improved safety around the perimeter of the vehicle.
* The Mitsubishi Concept PX-MiEV is equipped for the Driving Safety Support System (DSSS (Level II)) currently being promoted by the Japanese National Police Agency. In this advanced vehicle-infrastructure safety support system, an on-board receiver picks up signals transmitted by roadside optical beacons and the system urges the driver to take extra care when other vehicles or pedestrians have been detected by roadside sensors and cameras at intersections and pedestrian crossings.
* Employing a system that uses wireless technology to ascertain the position of other vehicles and warn the driver when their proximity so requires, the Mitsubishi Concept PX-MiEV also supports the Advanced Safety Vehicle 4 (ASV4) project being promoted by the Road Transport Bureau of the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
* The vehicle is also fitted with a Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC*1) system, employing the road-to-vehicle communications capabilities used in Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) to determine the position of the vehicle and whether it is parked or not."

Real Time Pricing

An incomplete post on the economic effects of real time pricing for the essentials of life. I include, congestion control from the dashboard, electricity pricing from a kitchen based meter, insurance by the mile, airline tickets, event tickets, or any freight movement. Real time pricing incentivizes the consumer to force smooth, constant quality inventory flow (most goods and people shipped "as is" during some optimum period). Most real time pricing is digital enabled.

Real time electricity pricing gets a smart grid that can utilize solar during optimum sun hours. Insurance by the mile can also be insurance based on congested-mile, getting you lower rates for minimal driving, but driving on safe, predictable routes. When transportation costs are lowered, then shopping on-line become closer to real time.

Reading electricity rates at home is cheap, a few dollars per home. Why isn't the DOE out pushing real time pricing?

The Traffic E-Zone

We need a technical aside here, allowing planners and investors to get a feel of the emerging software in vehicle management.

An E zone is the region in which all vehicles communicate with a traffic manager and to nearby cars. In reality, the traffic managers runs both wireless comm and cameras in intersections and along lanes. Vehicles have the Dashboard Device, or equivalent. E zone intersection light signals transit their states and events to surrounding cars, for example. The driver receives merging signals designed to enforce pre-planned priority lanes.

The DuraCOR auto comm/navigation system.

The market for e zone equipment, the dashboard market, would be quite lively as additional traffic information and capability is opened with e zone expansion. As the market expands, insurance rates drop as collision and lane warnings warning become ultra reliable. Applications like vehicle priority on demand, reserved parking, and group purchase of right away all provide gains in efficiency.

The dashboard market will include options for forward looking vision and radar, prices dropping as volume increase. As automobile companies try to push the line on automatic lane guidance, increased driver education is necessary.

Toyota offers the first dashboard device. Another DSRC module. European standard on congestion pricing by DSRC. An ITTS proof of concept, used the DuraCOR system above. And a software developer job opening. A trade article from Delphi Automotive on the topic. Another trade article. An expensive marketing report on Auto Telematics.

Cohda claims a breakthrough in DSRC data rates. An article about using DSRC to protect motorcycles.

Oregon bill to try out congestion pricing moves forward. UK third phase DSRC trials report and putting a DSRC in a mobile phone. Mitsubishi has a DSRC product line. The AIDA system.

Testing at the Michigan Speedway. A European effort at DSRC integration. IBM has a glowing self account about intelligent traffic.

E Cars and more

E Car Technology:

One to watch and learn about. With hub motors.

About hub motors and Siemens and Hi-Pa Drive. This looks like a new division, now named Protean Electric, the e-Traction hub

More on the Sabaru. The Micro-Vett from Italy. The Mini-e from Mini-Cooper. Earth2Tech reviews six at once.

Intelligent Traffic

Earl Blumenauer (D-Oregon) wants to try out per mile vehicle taxes using vehicle trackers. $154 million he wants to spend, with the usual skullduggery of supporting lobbyists.

The bill wants to try out GPS trackers and transmitters. But I say, change the bill to include receiver and display for the driver.

In this blog Adam Stewin talks about pricing by the mile and mentions Holland:

"Before delving into the specific arguments for and against a mileage tax, it’s worth noting that the entire country of Holland is doing exactly what commentators have deemed stupid or impossible: starting in 2011, the Netherlands will phase in a vehicle-tracking scheme that applies dynamic pricing to every mile driven. Pricing will vary by vehicle type, time of day, and location, in order to curb both congestion and carbon emissions. The program is designed to be revenue-neutral, and because the government is simultaneously phasing out a steep motor vehicle tax, the plan should end up reducing the burden on low-income drivers. I mention this not to suggest that the U.S. can or should do exactly as Holland does, but just to point out that the concept isn’t quite as crazily unworkable as some seem to think."

Comment

In digital traffic zones all vehicles and their weight class are known to the system. The addition of indicator lights on the dashboard allow driver interaction with system traffic. ,Hence, the system can minimize interaction between heavy and light weight vehicles. The E-Zones make unlimited use of the E-Car possible, with very short pay backs on the digital upgrades. As the volume of light weights grow, so does their road space with virtual dividers. All parties gain from insurance savings.

Secretary of Energy Chu and his views on E cars.