Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Topology and Markov

The condition on the left is area vs the condition on the right, linear.

So this is a long snake ruler coiled in the radial marking circle.  The radial marker steps around the circle and a descending market on the radial counts Bayes spaces on the coiled snake. counts spaces on the snake.  When a new space is discovered, the stamp will stamp the most accurate measurement of the integer.  Each space on the snake getting three 'adjustments', in units of 1/x,1/y,1/z, x y z relatively prime.

No marker appears three times in a row, the most accurate marker will often appear twice.
Moreover, he pointed out that {\displaystyle x^{2}+y^{2}+z^{2}=3xyz+4/9}, an approximation of the original Diophantine equation, is equivalent to {\displaystyle f(x)+f(y)=f(z)} with f(t) = arcosh(3t/2).[6] The conjecture was proved[disputeddiscuss] by Greg McShane and Igor Rivin in 1995 using techniques from hyperbolic geometry.[7]

Our flat circle has become a salad bowl The splitting of the hyperbolic angles is the splitting of a fixed bandwidth channel. those are relative number of bit assigned.  The angles follow the old Fibonacci, notice.

How does this work? This optimum ratio estimates the most irrational number as one counts around the edge of the salad bowl/ That means there is no predictable error and the current estimate is the best possible. It is an optimum self sampled system.  The sum squares between bandwidth X plus bandwidth Y should be close to bandwidth square Z, within 3/2.  That condition is why we have curved paper.

If you spiral down the side of the salad bowl, every space must have three marks, that is the maximum and minimum accuracy. This is another concept of coloring.  This is factional approximation, we are half a simple behind, 3/2 when we are used to 2D and 2.

Nancy should have done better with Senate earmarks

AIRPORT GRANTS, EXPLAINED: After local news reports started coming in around the country about smaller airports being shocked by the sizes of grants they got from the CARES Act, your MT host began digging. Here’s what we found:
Part of the reason is the bill's formula for airport grants was designed to favor smaller airports, after a rushed process in which a Senate-developed formula using factors other than size and traffic won out over a simpler House proposal.
Another reason is part of that formula involves, in some cases, an impossible calculation: dividing by zero. The way the FAA handled that mathematical paradox led to a surprising bonanza for 56 airports, which were each handed $17.56 million simply because they had no debt but some level of cash reserves.

Boldface mine.

Now, given our 250 history of dealing with the Senate and the state scale problem, Nancy should have been clued. She is ignorant or deliberately obtuse, like Newsom.

We will fix Senate earmark problem as we make it more obvious. Nancy will learn to just grant state capitals a cash amount, and a large one. Do this at the top of each bill and federal efficiency improves greatly.  Plus, this solution is written quite plainly in the Constitution which we are bound to follow, except UC Berkeley professors who are still Godotists.

Nancy no longer has excuses, her constituents will be fried, impoverished until she get clue. The Federal Financial Repression act is coming in 2021, the default scenario.  We can all get out of this better than we went in if one thing happens, the House collective punishes the states for ignorant governors. We can deal with the Cottons, Cruzes, Trawleys,  Kamalas and Sanders, but first we must empower their governors with cash, and the governors must empower us with brains.

If the latter does not happen, we are screwed. We will get smoother continuity if state capitals can keep a level memory of events without the Godotists tromping around mis-educating the voters. The Law intends this to happen, and we cannot avoid the Constitution, else the Newsoms and Calizuela will go nuts re-instating Franciscan Law out here, and the federal union is broken.

QAnon? I looked it up

QAnon[a] (/kjuːəˈnɒn/) is a far-right conspiracy theory[7][8] detailing a supposed secret plot by an alleged "deep state" against U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters

Weird.
First, there is no secret plot. I am from California and the unions hate Trump, fund his opposition and are about as deep state as one can get.   But it is not a secret.  Further, it is quite common and acceptable for government unions to participate in plots against anti-union politicians.

Is this about Mueller?
Yes, but Mueller was a response to the hysterical mass mental illness that afflicted the Hillary crowd.  I do not see that as an attempt to oust Trump.  Believe me, read the nearly three years of bawling and caterwauling and one can see the need for a little government psychiatry.

So, my guess here is that the supporters of Trump chose to make a common fact into a Alt-R conspiracy theory, to get more press. It is working.


No, Mike. We just thought you were an idiot

Missouri governor clarifies comments on school kids, virus
Parson later sought to clarify his statements, on Wednesday telling reporters that his comments “were not articulated very well.”
“What I was trying to say is that there is a very real possibility that there could be COVID in our schools, and we want to be prepared for that,” Parson said.
He said anyone who uses his comments politically to say he doesn’t care about children “is one sick individual.
In the Friday interview on 97.1 FM, Parson was stressing that need to reopen schools and the importance of in-person education.
Though I do not deny being one sick individual. But in this case we were simply noting the Missouri voters picked one hellava dumbshit for governor.

Give us the better plan

Four Months of Unprecedented Government Malfeasance

Heather Mac Donald complains the full cost of shutdowns was not considered, yet sdhe gives no calculation of that cost. Claims it is too late.

First, there was no rush to shutdown until the hospitals got jammed and we had a hospital strike.  Second, she connects the Antificant rebels with the covid, but I see no connection nor does she supply a connection.  Finally, the slow down is mostly voluntary, no one wants to get the disease.

The alternative for covid is to keep investing in the medical solution.

About the Antificants. 
They are no worse than the antificants of 60s and 70s, why not resolve it the same way Nixon did, a default?

God enough if production is cheap

COVID antibodies in patients with mild symptoms fade quickly, raising concerns that their immunity from a future infection may not last very long, researchers said in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The first analysis was done on antibodies taken an average of 37 days after symptoms began, with a second after about 86 days, or less than three months.
The researchers determined that antibody levels had fallen precipitously, with a half-life of about 73 days between the two time frames.

That raises concern that immunity may not last long in people who develop a mild infection, which accounts for the majority of cases.
If some mRNA process, in or out of our body, can generate the antibodies cheaply then fine, we can use our inhaler.  It is a start and if done cheaply will drop R down sufficiently to open up more of the economy.

Not good for repubs

Ohio House Speaker Arrested In $60M Bribery Scheme Which Added New Fee To Every Electricity Bill In State
A massive corruption scandal being described as the "largest bribery, money-laundering scheme ever perpetrated against the people of the state of Ohio" — to the tune of $60 million, has just rocked the Buckeye state.
On Tuesday the Republican Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder along with four others were arrested for being allegedly part of a scheme to pass legislation for a billion dollar bailout of two failed Ohio nuclear plants which were on the brink of permanent closure. Householder is widely looked upon as Ohio's third most powerful and influential lawmaker.

Federal agents raided his farm Tuesday morning and made the arrest. The AP has described the top Ohio lawmaker as a "driving force" behind the uphill battle to controversially bail out the state's two nuclear power plants at a significant expense to taxpayers.
I am not shocked.  It is almost legal in Calizuela and NYC.

Like most Ohioans this blunder will make my Chihuahua go up in the polls as this stains Trump.. In Ohio is is a much bigger deal as this was a horrific fight in the legislature, and now the opponents see it was a repub scam.

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Skipping the metaphor

Make-Up Policy: Where Art Thou?


Beckworth on monetary policy.

Make up policy is not some magic expectation issued by the Fed.  Making up nominal money means the Fed has to permanently lose money, and being a central bank, that means burn a few  Treasury bond holdings.

A missing component is dealing with the Right to Coin and a bunch of bonehead Supremes, and that forces a New Fed contract, coming soon.  And getting a New Fed contract implies we be assured of smarter small state governors who understand how this works.  Good luck to us, but Beckworth is right.  

There will be Godotists in every step of the path forward, every priors crowd producing a philosophy..

Not quite the completye assumption

Menzie doing his funds rate calculation under a gold standard.
I avoided reading it because I already knew his error.
To obtain this estimate this out, consider the relationship between the log price of gold and the nominal Fed funds rate, estimated over the 1968M03-2019M02 period.
pgold = 6.423 – 10.210 fedfunds

The bold face is mine.  He is missing part of that assumption, he also has to assume that we were on the gold standard during that time.  He is assuming a Godot that has placed permanent, infinitely divisible markets in the gold pits.  His other error, thus, is not obtaining a complete sequence, of which we have two,  From the Roosevelt gold repricing to the Nixon repricing to today.

If you fix my first objection, then his set of gold prices and fund rates will both be binomial, with the fund rate as a risk equalizer.   The sequence is observable by all traders, not just Menzie ex post. His target rate becomes move toward typical rate in the middle of the binomial coin flips, not the starting rate, he needs to take an N/2 root at least.

The second completes the sequence, we know the peak to peak default rate.

I do not mind his use of log as long as he has the complete sequence.  Using logs simply means the traders were infinitely fast, the problem is still bounded at the boundaries.

The difference is the Lucas criteria.  I did it right in the previous post.

Technically there are two rates, the interest swaps.  But the probability of default so small that the other rate is close to  one and gets eliminated within the bounded uncertainty.  The solution is the instantenous probability of default, with a compounding charge.  The longer you continuously loan gold to Treasury, the more your interest gain compounds.