When debt is cycling that means we can measure it, imprecisely. The structural debt is the debt government have no clue about, it is measured as a blob. Brookings wants to make the distinction.
I think this is valid, distinguishing between what we can measure as a cycle and what we only know as a blob of uncertainty. The paper considers Arizona vs California and points out that if the economy works as we expect, the California debt will absolve the cyclic, and leave a smaller relative structural.
Why does Arizona budget so much that is uncertain? Arizona is a less powerful observer, California the more powerful. California was able to convert some of their uncertain blob into a cycle by observation.
Out west, which is the domain of the Brookings study, we all coordinate our looks. the real estate developer coordinating with the California commuter and retiree, coordinating with Sacramento tax policy, etc. One cannot take the parts separately, the peripheral states will wind and unwind with sparse inventory functions, so structural gaps will appear in the periphery sooner than the center.
Arizona, in particular is very interested in events in California, especially home prices and retirement age. When California gains a bit of certainty, some of that comes back from Arizona.
2 comments:
Very interesting article. Esp. the actual appears utilized to secure the head. I wouldn't have noticed this without any help. Will have to look carefully at previous photographs to view this particular feature.
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