Monday, January 24, 2011

GDP measures during disequilibrium

Marginal Revolution, in particular Tyler Cowen has a new book which I haven't read;
The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History,Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better
The idea is that we use up available markets to distribute with existing technology before we move on to new technology. This is an approximate synopsis I got from the comments and posting.

The information technology version, the one I accept, is different.  We enter disequilibrium when the information technology destroys old markets and makes new one.  Hence, information technology pushes us below growth potential.  The two views are reconciled if we accept that low hanging fruit is not long hanging so low when we have new information.

Information spreads across the globe and emerging economies heat up as they learn about better production technology, while our economy cools down, this has been happening since 1980.  The low hanging fruit can be packaged into production at the source, farther from our shore.

So our yields curve flattens, the gains from specialization dropping. The amount of production we owe the world has been delayed by government debt and bailouts. Unsustainability is reached when the gains from specialization cannot guarantee the promise of future production. We reorganizing to a steeped curve to make the interest payments. We move the peak production cycle to a shorter term  and  reduce consumption.  The channel become constricted by debt payments, and we have fewer options in arranging distribution with maximum variation.

So we are stuck with lower GDP until we find a new production system with higher gains.

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