Saturday, August 17, 2013

NCLB and the continuing multipliers less than one

When I talk about multipliers less than one concerning NCLB. I mean the students are worse off when the DC gets involved in California education. This has been the pattern of No Child Left Behind for ten years, simply a series of very expensive disruptions in our school system. Here is the umpteenth example of that: From LA Times:
Think back to the dark days of 2009, when school districts in California and across the nation faced dire budget shortfalls. States would have done almost anything for extra money, and when the Obama administration dangled Race to the Top grants in front of them, many of them did indeed race to adopt the policies that would win federal approval — such as including student test scores in teachers' performance rankings and adopting common curriculum standards.
Because public education falls almost entirely under state authority, this sort of arm-twisting was the only way the administration could persuade states to do its bidding. The No Child Left Behind Act, the school accountability law adopted during the George W. Bush administration, also used money — federal Title 1 funding for disadvantaged students — to press its rigid standards on states. Race to the Top pressured financially strapped states to adopt education policies that varied widely in their value. Many of the policies, such as the push to tie teacher evaluations to student test scores, were not backed by any sort of evidence. Yet they were adopted quickly because of application deadlines, and there was little time for thoughtful crafting of new rules. EDUCATION: California Schools Guide Yet for all the excitement, Race to the Top provided little actual cash. California would have received a one-time award of $700 million — less than 2% of what it spends on education every year. It failed to win a grant, but nonetheless had committed itself, as most states did, to the Common Core curriculum standards that the Obama administration supported. Implementing the standards, which are set to take effect in a year, will cost the state well over $1 billion.
This has been the pattern for 10 years, DC makes a change, the children are abandoned to substitute teachers, and the real teachers go to school.
Take this problem and multiply it by 100 and you get 20 years of DC sponsored light rail losers, soon another 10 years of volatility as we adapt to Obamacare.  Then federal judicial interference with prisons. Add to that the racial pandering of the Democratic party in California.

California is a huge state, comprising 54 Congressional districts for which we are short the requisite number of ten Senators.  As a result of the Senate void, California is never a party to the debate, is always reacting, and always suffering losses as we adapt huge government systems to far fetched ideas thought up by small states. California almost went broke, main cause? Multipliers less than one from DC.  In the face of the problem, California is still expected to pay a 25% tax premium to stay in the union.

California is suffering a mild down turn in the economy. Because California cannot adapt in time to the avalanche of multipliers less than one coming down the pike from DC, it is likely this mild downturn will result in a second dip for the entire US economy. Yes it is that serious. Multipliers in California now run about .5, meaning every dollar in taxes spent, we lose about 50 cents of the economy. But California is 20% of the US economy and DC spending is about 5% of that. So given multipliers less than one, California alone is dropping about 3% growth from GDP.

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