No, with a lag of one business cycle, the traders follow the steepness of the treasury curve. Traders have been doing that since 1995. The main cause is the economy is constrained by the ability of Congress to make interest payments, and the wholly owned fiat business of Congress has been helping out, since 1995. The market is simply following the maximum gain frontier, which has been bounded by the financial stress of Congress. It is the borrow and bailout binge started by the Republicans, then a confirmed disaster under the Obama Keynesians.
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