Saturday, December 7, 2013

Hegemons and monopolies

They are different, the hegemon has a competitor or two, one nearly half its size. This change makes a big difference on the models used for banking. The implicit assumption of the unit of account is that it is the uniform counter across the economy. But the Shadow Banks is doing more counting, the government fiat less over time. The Shadow Banking system is buying parts of the federal reserve system with each QE, and leasing parts with the permanent QE. The central bank is selling itself off to pay for G in DC, which is losing money fast. That is why the accuracy of GDP estimates has been increasingly bad. G has a legal block on retail fiat for the Shadow Bank, so their capacity reaches a boundary. The Shadow Bank has reached is demand limit for more of the Fed's business, unless it adopts the Bitcoin, and can make ATMs work with it worldwide. But, they are Shadow Banks, after all, so make some shadow fiat already. Problem: China just made the Bitcoin illegal.

No comments: