Saturday, November 14, 2015

What is the natural interest rate?

If I own a bike shop then over some period of time I maintain a unique stream of customers.   The rate of interest is the rate at which customers repeat their purchases without running into the same crowd at the shop.  Thus the bike shop keeper is keeping a unique set of customers over the typical inventory cycle.  The shop keeper does not want the same old crowd every month, he want innovation.

This is the problem of counting the number of schoolgirls when they walk abreast in groups of N when each school girl  never walks with anyone twice. This is really a queuing problem.
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It is right in  the hyperbolics, but it is the rate over the inventory cycle, and that must be converted to normalized yearly rate. Go talk to the pros who get this.

The reason we use yearly rate is due to the farming season and weather effects.

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