Wolf Street: In late October, national real estate brokerRedfin had already reported that the median home price in San Francisco in September had jumped 14.9% from last year, as home sales in units had plunged 25.3%!This is year-over-year data. Seasonality has nothing to do with it.On Redfin’s list of 65 markets around the US, there were only three other markets where home sales declined year-over-year: Indianapolis -4.1%, Omaha -0.8%, and Tulsa -5%. The national average gained 9.0%. So San Francisco’s 25.3% plunge is in a category of its own. That was for September.Now we have some data for October from Paragon Real Estate in San Francisco:The median home price had peaked in May at $1,225,000, based on MLS data. That was 65% higher than at the insane prior bubble peak that then imploded spectacularly, and 104% higher than in January 2012. Following normal seasonal patterns, it fell 8.4% to $1,150,000 by September then rose in October to $1,200,000 (with the median house price at $1,300,000 and the median condo price $1,100,000). Based merely on seasonality, prices are expected to hit a low point in January.But the bottom is already falling out of the “luxury market.” This segment is defined as the top 20% of reported sales (currently, houses over $2 million and condos over $1.5 million). As sales volume sagged “well below levels hit in the previous 2 years,” the number of listings soared in September and October to a new all-time high. A very toxic mix.
Sales way down but prices way up! That means long time homeowners hare taking the cash and getting out of California. These owners are in no hurry to sell, they are just waiting for the geeks to pay outrageous prices.
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