Sunday, September 18, 2016

Government needs a long field in which to kick can

Sumner talking about the Bank of Japan and 'easing':

At least three in this camp favor sticking with the plan, convinced that both huge government bond purchases and negative rates are still effective in forcing private money to flow into riskier assets. This faction thinks curbing those purchases, or even tinkering with the buying formula in a way that markets might perceive as tightening, could send the yen soaring, according to people familiar with its views, which is the opposite of the policy's intended effect. That could hit corporate profits and the stock market.
Risk is the perception that the planned liquidity events will not happen.  This happens when the private sector is out hunting smaller unique membership sets to provide some specialize combinations of input.  So firms have the risk of re-quantization costs, unanticipated, and requiring more debt; and a longer sequence look back, meaning a longer time to completion, means kicking the can.

  The amount of accuracy to cover governments current obligations, over a long period, is as much as impossible.  Accuracy is counted as our ability to marshal small groups finding small advanages along the way, a whole lot of them.  They make the path smooth going forward, and these small unique groups suffer large government costs.

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