Bloomberg: But what has the analysts uneasy isn’t just the speed at which leverage is climbing, but that it’s happening while the economy continues to grow.
“Leverage tends to rise most in a recession -- so the fact that it is this high in a ‘healthy economy’ is even more concerning,” the analysts wrote. In other words, they said, “mistakes are both more likely and more costly.”
More than one indicator shows recession, but one major indicator still shows positive, the unemployment rate. However, the participation rate is down by five points from its 2001 peak, and productivity growth has flattened. This economy looks a lot like early stage Japan disease, and we may roll along with nearly 0-1% growth for some long period.
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