Brad Templeton and BRT and freight

Brad Templeton is a RoboCar enthusiast as am I. We have been in e mail communications about the mix of RoboCars and BRT (Bus Rapid Transit).

Brad's essential argument, if I can interpret, is that RoboCars should develop independent of other traffic specialties, as the personal computer stood on its own. I could not respond on Brad's FAQ about the idea of special intelligent traffic lanes, so I respond here.

The movement toward BRT sometimes comes with a special lane and sometimes not. BRT does come with signaling help with stop lights at a minimum, but then Light Rail also has signaling help so this is not new and BRT is a replacement for light rail. BRT also requires more expansive boarding stations, as does light rail, mainly due to heavier passenger load per bus configuration. Articulated buses are common and often are the distinguishing mark between express buses and BRT. BRT is absolutely more efficient, with LA, Santa Clara, and other deployments consistently showing double the seat occupancy, and generally 30% to 50% shorter travel times.

My point is that freight haulers will want to be part of special BRT lanes, and freight delivery is likely to make a strong case that our economy depends as much on congestion free freight as it does congestion free transit. If freight haulers are willing to afford the special bulb out for freight loading or unloading, then they incur no extra congestion of expense to the BRT lanes. Intelligent high occupancy lanes gain efficiency as more vehicles use them with the associated signaling assist. The more traffic that uses the intelligent lanes, the more lanes that can be shifted from standard lanes.

So, we end up, because of the enormous gains in efficiency, with a great demand for personal autos, freight, and buses to obtain the associated intelligence to pack into the new mode of transport. That is the technology sector will be pushing the same intelligent technology across buses, freight wagons, and autos so that we get much lower cost in the digital systems. Signal light designers will be pursuing better standards and more efficient signal light controls. Freight warehouses in the city, pedestrian transit points, and other associate terminal technology will be shared across the all modes of transportation. Eventually automobile companies will make the case that specially equipped cars can operate in intelligent lanes without impacting BRT traffic. All this happens because of economies of scale in delivering intelligent traffic technology.

These lanes do not look all that special, often with little more than a curb or fence to separate them from "dumb" traffic lanes. Hence, they have relatively low infrastructure costs, often they appropriate a existing asphalt road and build out on that. The technology in these lanes will be developed by the same vendors that develop RoboCars, often mixing and matching the technology, especially low cost computer vision.

So, Brad's RoboCar is a bundle of technology from companies that likely will serve the same master, intelligent traffic flow. The level of human supervision monitoring this flow will vary, but basic intelligent lane technology will be a minimum requirement. If BRT continues its push, at the expense of light rail, then BRT will likely determine the standards for intelligent traffic management, including RoboCars.