Measuring GDP in a constrained environment

Comparing Real GDP to Oil Imports

Under the assumption that oil, or energy, is the dominant constraint in the economy, we would expect the oil yield curve to best represent the average yield curve of the economy. So, I am looking for correlations between oil imports and GDP. Note the Real GDP in the lower chart, from 1992 to today. Compare it with the oil import chart. They both have the inverted hockey stick. In typical asymmetry, oil declines faster than it rose.

What is causality here? Real GDP will be decomposed mostly by the top few constraints in the economy. that is there is only so much regression coefficient to be distributed. Most of that correlation coefficient is oil imports when oil is excessively constraining.

I think a look at the last portion of the oil import chart will show a small correlation between oil imports and the American Recovery Act. There was a typical, temporary excess of oil inventory after the crash. Congress managed to use it up.