Oil at $83 and oil imports falling like a rock. Somebody is fixing oil to the dollar within a narrow range, a range that likely matches the supply chain physical limits. Of the culprits, we have consumers, manufacturers, or OPEC; or all three.
Another measure of the balance of payments, look at oil imports by volume and the Ceridian index, they match; oil imports leading the index even. But, both tied to transportation.
A real constraint, the cause of the depression, and caused by what? The sudden arrival from the future of peak oil was brought to you by information technology, in the last ten years. We measure farther out with more accuracy, now the order of the day for the average citizen. Sudden information shocks makes things seem out of place and a cost results from having to hold futures contracts while things are moved about. In this particular case, we jumped in and acted as if we could rearrange inventory as fast we we could now track it. Transportation comes to a grinding halt and a Recalc ensues.
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