A note on TIPS

A reminder from a guest contributor at WSJ:

The standard calculation of breakeven rates of inflation based on comparing nominal and real five-year yields suggests that the TIPS bond will give the investor the same return as the nominal bond if inflation over the next five years averages 1.5% per year. That’s low to start with. But in our current situation facing some risk of ongoing deflation, this standard calculation will tend to overstate anticipated inflation. TIPS have the peculiar feature that they are a one-sided bet — while the principal is adjusted upwards for inflation, it is not adjusted downwards for deflation. This makes TIPS more attractive when there is a risk of deflation, pushing their price up and yield down. At present, adjusting for this “insurance against deflation” would lower the implied breakeven rate of inflation to even less than 1.5%.

TIPS are not symmetrical, so on the other side of the bet is the taxpayer, subsidizing TIPS buyers during a deflation.  How about this, make TIPs symmetrical so we have a better measure?