Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Yield mismatches across currencies

Aggregate Demand in the US is increasing by 4.2%, however, production is increasing by only 2.5%

While in Britain and Germany consumer purchases are flat to low but production is growing. It is no wonder that the fear a falling dollar.
This from Modeled behavior
Low yields relative to other nations make a weak dollar. The German bond curve is elevated relative to our, but is that a persistant force?  Yes, the rate differences put persistent force on the dollar down, that is why it is called a trade imbalance.

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