Saturday, November 6, 2010

OK, let's talk economic norms

The great utility of money is that it can be treated like a compressible fluid in an approximation.  That is a great simplification in identifying value over time, follow the money.  That is also a great simplification for economists, it allows algebra to approximate the economy,  it enables double entry accounting.

The economy makes the same approximation when it achieves economies of scale.  The economy says to itself, "as long as there are no major perturbations, then I can reduce the variability of products and still use approximate double entry book-keeping."    So, as long as demand is stable around the 16 Oz soda bottle, the soda industry gets economies of scale.  But when the new equilibrium becomes the 12 OZ bottle, then the soda industry has to make good on a lot of deferred reversible flow, because the soda industry needs to make the transition smooth.  The producer wants the consumer to smoothly adjust his inventory of household soda.

The underlying real norm, as I note many times, is a positive definite, directed flow, a queuing model.  This is not generally a reversible flow, the economy deals with expanding entropy; inventories cannot generally be negative nor are products generally returned.  So, the algebra only holds to the approximation that the economy is willing to suffer.  But there is still structure in the directed flow, a different math, a math the economist can use after the fact.

What happens when we get unexpected shortages of essential inputs?  Faced with the idea of negative inventory looming, we shorten the production line, thus making sure that inventories return to positive territory, making sure the approximation holds within error. Economist need to research that tipping point, the point at which a high probability of negative inventory causes a Recalc.  That point should be called the Jensen bond energy.  There is a specific volatility in inventory that peaks our attention, it exceeds a set bound and we know the approximation is not holding.

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