Thursday, March 17, 2011

The Real Business Cycle needs a theory

It is is the economic theory that says "shit happens" and the best we can do is find what happened and based on the discovery, try to predict when things get fixed.  A much better theory than Keynes who posits that government is static and undemocratic.

As we all know by now, recessions happen because the Levin chain risk increases, and we break and reform the production chain. We even have math that describes the phenomena.

In network theory, undergoing a recession involves local decisions on the real production graph. The economy looks for mergers and innovations,locally between nodes, that allow the production chain to reform with less risk.

Most of the shocks come from information technology. Absent any technology change in information, all parties equilibriate to the agreed allocations. Information technology changes our ability to measure allocation efficiency. it is a paradox. When things are working resonably well, the agents have no other path toward increasing gains except better information. Going back to the telegraph, the game was always find better information sources.

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